BOO HOO

Couldn't have happened to nicer guys

2008-06-09T00:35:00.005-04:00

Until next year.

Quick look at the undercard

2008-06-06T00:56:00.000-04:00

Still have a bit of work to do, but here's my early take on the five stakes..

The first three (True North, Just a Game, Acorn) look fairly straightforward, and it's a shame that there's no pick four that includes any of these races, because there's an opportunity to make some cash. Benny the Bull appears the class of the True North, if like me, you're not a Thor's Echo believer off the layoff. Vacare and Lady of Venice loom the ones to beat in the Just a Game, but Bit of Whimsy and Criminologist certainly wouldn't be shocking winners. Looking forward to the Acorn, as Indian Blessing, the even-money morning line favorite, is vulnerable. Zaftig and Game Face both look like quality one-turn fillies, and the juvenile filly champ will probably be overrated, as she has been. The Woody Stephens is very tough, as J Be K looks SLIGHTLY the best, but if he doesn't win, there are four or five others capable of pulling it off. The Manhattan, however, is freaking impossible. I'd love for someone to talk me out of any of these horses: Shakis, Stalingrad, Out of Control, Strike a Deal, Pays to Dream, Proudinksy, Dancing Forever and Stream of Gold. The race is so wide open, I'm considering going eight-wide and leaving off one of the most accomplished turf horses of the decade (Better Talk Now).

Be back once more before Saturday morning.

Belmont Stakes preview

2008-06-05T01:49:00.002-04:00

Here goes.. Not much time to waste, as there's a terrific undercard to get to work on, and everything that could be said about the big race has been said. I won't have any time to go over the undercard horse-by-horse, but each of the five stakes will be discussed before Saturday morning, for sure!

1.) BIG BROWN (Rick Dutrow, Jr./Kent Desormeaux) 2-5
Boundary colt comes back home for chance at immortality, with an unremarkable field standing in his way and a quarter crack that may or may not be a significant hindrance. Certainly done nothing wrong in five-race career, winning by 4 3/4+ lengths in every start. What's more, he's shown a remarkable tractability, running on and off the lead, and breaking from inside and extreme outside posts. His last three races have been superb. Beyer from last was somewhat light, but he was barely allowed to run, and his TG for the race (-1) was still plenty strong. The distance doesn't auger to be a problem for him, as he's smart enough to relax until his pilot says go. Two major hurdles are: Casino Drive, and that nasty split in the hoof. Not an equine expert, but it appears pretty painful, and said before the Preakness that he'd be a bad bet at 1-5 in here. With that said, it certainly didn't hurt him enough to prevent a picture perfect five-furlong blowout. Hoof specialist Ian McKinlay calls the crack a "4" on a scale of 1-10, for whatever that's worth. The prevailing sentiment is that it's a minor problem, if one at all. However, any strike against him is a significant one in this, a 12-furlong race in his third start in five weeks, against a potentially outstanding challenger. And of course, any injury raises red flags for a horse that had to be laid off six months for foot issues. He's still, obviously, the most likely winner, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him torch this field en route to the first Triple Crown in 30 years. It wouldn't be shocking, though, to see him flame out, as so many others have despite seeming invincible. Think long and hard before you single him.

2.) GUADALCANAL (Fred Seitz/Javier Castellano) 50-1
Surprise late entrant comes into this weak field off the best race of his life, a narrow miss going this distance on the CD turf. Can't totally blame connections for taking a shot at a suck-up third or fourth, but he's been very mediocre thus far, and he would need a major improvement even sniff the board. For the birds.

3.) MACHO AGAIN (Dallas Stewart/Garret Gomez) 20-1
West Point gray nabbed second in the Preakness at an overlaid 39-1, but his figures for that run (92 BSF, 2 1/2 TG) were decidedly weak, and he didn't make up any serious ground on a geared down Big Brown late. He did, however, close well after encountering trouble at the top of the stretch. Doubt he gets better with more distance though, and still believe his future lies as a one-turn closer. Certainly among the more talented horses in the field, so wouldn't totally exclude him, but humbly suggest using him sparingly underneath.

4.) DENIS OF CORK (David Carroll/Robby Albarado) 12-1
Blaze-faced son of Harlan's Holiday has shown flashes in his young career, and came up for third at 27-1 in the Derby. Points for that, as he was the only horse to close into what was a surprisingly modest pace. However, he was no threat to the top two finishers, and he certainly benefited from being on the rail around both turns. One wonders why his connections didn't choose the two-hole if that was the plan, but that's neither here nor there. Sure to lure some considerable dough being a closing third in a 10-furlong race, but not certain that he's all that much better than he showed. After all, his only other big race came with a completely perfect setup in the G3 Southwest. Will likely be closer to the chase this time around, which means more opportunity for trouble. Definitely is a candidate to fill out the trifecta, but at 12-1, he reeks of an underlay. Will try to beat him out of the triple.

5.) CASINO DRIVE (Kazuo Fujisawa/Edgar Prado) 7-2
The mystery horse, no matter how you feel about him, certainly looms as the second most likely winner in this race, and he may or may not prove to be something special. His win in the G2 Peter Pan was pretty freaking great, any way you slice it. He came into the race with one published work, broke like crap, then inhaled the field en route to a 5 3/4-length triumph. To be fair, once he recovered from the slow break, he lucked into a pretty perfect trip. At the same time, he likely will be better off for having the race, and he was straight as an arrow in the stretch, never looking tired. Definitely bred for the extra three furlongs as well, he should give the big horse his sternest challenge yet. The pick to complete a very boring exacta.

6.) DA' TARA (Nick Zito/Alan Garcia) 30-1
The likely pacesetter in the race has certainly stepped up his game since being trounced by the big horse in the G1 Fla. Derby, running a solid fifth in the fast $117,000 Derby Trial and backing that up with a game second in the $100,000 Barbaro three weeks ago at PIM. The waters, of course, get way deeper this time around, and his only hope is likely to go to the front and hope for :25 and :50 up top. Even then, he'll probably offer little resistance once the real running begins. Would only consider if the track came up wet.

7.) TALE OF EKATI (Barclay Tagg/Eibar Coa) 20-1
Tale of the Cat bay has run some very respectable races in his career, and his G1 Wood win was pretty impressive, considering the pace. However, he seems to be getting slower late the longer he goes, and he's really being pressed this time around. Finished an inconsequential fourth at 37-1 in the Derby, and he's quite the trooper, but this seems like a tall task for a horse that would likely appreciate a return to one turn. Will probably benefit being close to a slow pace, but doubt that's enough to get him more than fourth.

8.) ANAK NAKAL (Nick Zito/Julien Leparoux) 30-1
Yet to run a very fast race either on Beyers (87 high) or TGs (2 3/4 high), and he seems to run a similar race every time out. Avoid the pace and pass some tired horses late to finish a non-threatening fourth or fifth. Can't say he won't do it this time too, but he's too slow to matter for anything more.

9.) READY'S ECHO (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) 30-1
Ready's Image colt had the look of a Belmont horse in his debut last year, flying from 25 lengths out of it to be second to Z Humor at SAR. Seriously, he's turned into a useful little closer, and logic dictates that the further he goes, the more effective he'll be. However, there isn't much pace in the race, which could force him too close to the front, which is death on a deep closer like him. Never stops running, so he's definitely got a shot to crack the trifecta, but his price will likely determine his usage. At 30-1 or higher, he's worth including, but if he drifts down near 20-1, he's a pass.

10.) ICABAD CRANE (H. Graham Motion/Jeremy Rose) 20-1
NY-bred has run well in his last two, winning the $100,000 Frederico Tesio and running third in the Preakness despite having to close into moderate to slow clips in both heats. He's similar to the colt to his inside in that he looks the part of a 12-furlong horse, but he'll probably get caught too close to a slow pace. With that said, if the pace is quicker than expected, he's the one that would probably be the freshest in that last quarter-mile, considering his distance breeding. Like him underneath.

SELECTIONS
1.) BIG BROWN - Hurdles are significant, but certainly the most likely winner
5.) CASINO DRIVE - Not to be taken lightly, should press the big horse late
10.) ICABAD CRANE - Most likely to benefit if pace is quicker than expected

Less than five days away

2008-06-02T19:15:00.000-04:00

Back after a hectic few weeks for an even more hectic week. The field is about set, and starting Wednesday, this blog will once again be flooded with updates.. Hope you folks planning on joining the 120,000 or so of us in Elmont on Saturday didn't get sodomized for tickets, because general admission works just fine, believe me. I'll be darting all around the track during the day, hanging out with good friend and At the Races host Steve Byk and a few other buddies, likely arriving soon after the gates open (8:30 a.m.). Should be a fun afternoon, and though this, of course, can rapidly change, the weather looks promising. Will be back on Wednesday when the Saturday card is drawn for a rundown of the Stakes, then Thursday and Friday will be spent perusing the undercard. Saturday's the big day. Be back shortly.

Well, here we are

2008-05-19T15:37:00.002-04:00

I'll try to refrain some going nuts with the soaring prose that "experts" (douches) like Pat Forde elect to overdose on during Triple Crown season, but as a racing fan, I can't suppress the palpable buzz inside of me that materialized the second Big Brown crossed the wire on Saturday. There's only one stretch of time in the racing world that can eclipse the weeks leading up to the Derby in terms of excitement and tension, and it's the 21 days between Baltimore and Elmont when a Triple Crown is possible. Boy am I glad I decided to keep this blog going following the Derby.

Without talking too much about myself, what I'll say is this: as a relatively new racing fan, I've only been to one Belmont in which a TC was on the line, Smarty Jones' crack at it in '04. I'll never forget the day, because the drama was unsurpassed by any sporting event I've ever watched or been to. The slow, steady buildup to Smarty's run at history was both unbearable and sensational, and by the time 6:30 rolled around, I could barely stand still. We all know what happened after that, and though I was pretty crestfallen at the time to be denied witness to the first TC in 26 years (also because I had singled Smarty in the Pick 6, though it wasn't paying much), I soon got over it, and realized what a fucking amazingly dramatic event had just gone down.

The three Belmonts since have been excruciatingly boring. Relegated to just a Grade I at an almost totally irrelevant distance, the Belmont is just another leg in pick fours and sixes in years where the Crown is safe. The media coverage is perfunctory, and the attendants are mostly those who got screwed on hopeful seating investments made before the Preakness was run.

This year though, the drama will be back full bore, and as someone who's sat through the last three intrinsically boring Belmonts, I'm psyched. I generally hate people, I hate long lines at the betting windows, I hate the overhyping of horses that win the first two legs (Big Brown's very good, but if you think we're going three weeks without the mainstream media making Secretariat references, you're crazy), and I hate the clusterfuck that is getting to and from the Stakes with 120,000+ in attendance. But for ten freaking dollars, you can say "you were there", either when Big Brown snapped the 30-year drought or Casino Drive played spoiler to the horse that had never been tested.

If you don't like Big Brown, aren't you something. You seem to have an aversion to confirmed cheaters and douchebag self-important Wall Street types. You're so unique. You know what? Shut the fuck up, and get over it. You're deluding yourself if you think Big Brown is any different from Smarty Jones or Afleet Alex. Sure, the connections were somewhat cuddlier (although the Cash is King guys are reportedly toolsheds as well), but they had no intention on campaigning their horse if he won the Triple Crown. Chappy Chapman and Cash is King just didn't come out and say so. Get mad at Iavarone for saying that Big Brown won't run at four all you want, but at least he's being honest about it, and not lying through his teeth at every turn to placate people like you.

The landscape has changed. Horses who win more than one TC race are not going to stick around, so with that in mind, either quit following the sport, or soak up these next three weeks as much as possible. There are certainly times to complain about the disappearing three-year-old that continues to race after winning TC races, but this shouldn't be one of them.

Racing gets very little time to truly be in the spotlight, and if you really love the sport, these next three weeks should be fun for you. Lots, even. Root for Casino Drive if you must. I certainly wouldn't mind seeing him upset the big horse. But one way or another, I strongly urge that you get excited.

Heck of a job Brownie

2008-05-17T18:52:00.000-04:00

The next three weeks should be mighty fun. Lots later.

Preakness preview

2008-05-15T15:44:00.003-04:00

133RD PREAKNESS STAKES

1.) MACHO AGAIN (Dallas Stewart/Julien Leparoux) 20-1
Promising West Point colt finally broke out in most recent start, closing being a moderate pace to take the $115,000 Derby Trial at 6-1. Steps back into graded company, and his previous two forays into these waters were no great shakes. He was a mediocre sixth in the G3 Lecomte at FG, then was beaten double digits in the G2 Lane's End. Those were also his only tries around two turns, which he attempts again in here. Derby Trial figure (99 BSF, 0 TG) seems a bit high, with the first, third and fifth-place finishers running drastic new tops. Even if his numbers are to be believed, there's still the nagging question over whether or not he's a two-turn horse or a one-turn closer. He did have excuses in his two-turn flops, with the Lane's End being run over polytrack, and the Lecomte being a paceless race. Thing is, the clip figures to be average in this as well. Guess the amount of inclusion depends on his price. At 25-1 or so, he's worth a flier in the bottom of exotics, but if he drifts down near 15-1, he might be a good play against.

2.) TRES BORRACHOS (Beau Greely/Tyler Baze) 30-1
Gelded son of Ecton Park has gotten good since turning three, running a deceptively good fourth in the $150,000 California Derby, then a decent third at 10-1 in the G3 El Camino Real Derby, and stepping up to come back for third at 37-1 after setting strong fractions in the G2 Arkansas Derby. Doesn't necessarily need the lead, but he does his best running near the front, and drawing inside, he'll probably have to gun to get a good position. Though the pace appeared fast in the AR Derby, I'm of the belief that the track sped up and became more speed-favoring by the time the big race came around, so I've substantially downgraded the numbers he got (95 BSF, 4 TG), which aren't all that strong to begin with. Also not sure he's quick enough to run with Big Brown, which could discourage him early. Not for me.

3.) ICABAD CRANE (Graham Motion/Jeremy Rose) 30-1
Lightly raced NY-bred came from the clouds to win first two starts, then suffered first defeat when forced close to a crawl in the $100,000 Rushaway, but rebounded in the $100,000 Frederico Tesio over this track, closing into a super slow early pace to win by a head. That looks more impressive, considering that the horse he bested by a head, Mint Lane, came back to run a bang-up second to Belmont contender Casino Drive after setting a much quicker pace last Saturday. This colt's pedigree and running style suggest that the extra sixteenth will be nothing if not an aid, and though his figures are slow (highs: 87 BSF, 5 1/2 TG), he could be ready for enough improvement to get him into the trifecta at a price. We've also seen these local horses jump up and run big races in the Preakness before. Using underneath.

4.) YANKEE BRAVO (Paddy Gallagher/Alex Solis) 15-1
Late running $17,000 purchase made a name for himself out west with a very impressive last to first win in the Cal Derby, despite traffic trouble and despite a slow pace in front of him. When he stepped into graded company in the G2 Louisiana Derby, he again didn't get fractions to run at, but he didn't disgrace himself, running third at 12-1 with an 89 BSF (4 TG). In the G1 SA Derby, however, he was a bit of a disappointment, being unable to make up serious ground and running an inconsequential fourth. Connections wisely decided to skip the Derby and run here, but I'm not sure the pace of the race and tendencies of the track suit him. He's certainly got some talent, but he's gonna need to raise his game to be a true factor in here, and I'm not sure that more distance is what he wants. Add to that the somewhat low morning line price, and he's not one that I'll be trying to get into exotics.

5.) BEHINDATTHEBAR (Todd Pletcher/David Flores) 10-1
Forest Wildcat bay broke through after a handy allowance score, closing from the clouds to get up in the G2 Lexington, and he's certainly got some strong races behind that. Problem is, that race set up perfectly for him, and as I addressed previously, his figures for that race (99 BSF, 1 1/2 TG) should be called into question. His only time on dirt, he ran a very mediocre fifth in the El Camino Real. Got a bad habit of drifting in, which could mean he's still a little bit green, and he was on his wrong lead for much of the stretch in the Lexington. That doesn't auger well for him in this contentious field that likely won't hand the race to him on a silver platter. His pedigree doesn't say that another eighth will necessarily be to his liking, either. Definitely dangerous, but at 10-1 or so, I'll pass.

6.) RACECAR RHAPSODY (Ken McPeek/Robby Albarado) 30-1
Not quite sure how this guy is thrice the morning line price of Behindatthebar, considering he was beaten only two lengths by that rival, but if that guess is right, it makes a previously unexciting prospect a little bit interesting at least. Son of Tale of the Cat has gotten a little unlucky in a few of his races, catching dead rails in his last two and breaking a million lengths behind the field in his debut. Yet he's never been out of the superfecta in six races. Think he'll be the most likely of the Lexington runners to appreciate the extra distance as well, although his lack of early speed is a definite concern. Also must note that his two big figures, 95 in the Lex and 93 in the Delta Jackpot, both reek of phoniness. His highest TG figure (3 3/4) makes him a fringe contender as well. Still, I wouldn't bet against him cracking the super, and maybe even sneaking into the tri with a clean trip, so at anything near the M/L, he's worth an inclusion.

7.) BIG BROWN (Rick Dutrow, Jr./Kent Desormeaux) 1-2
Was wildly impressive in his Derby win, and this is coming from one who was a skeptic before the race. The greenness was gone, he was as professional as could be, and he's still yet to retreat at all in any of his four races, opening up from the stretch call in each one. Breaking from the far outside stall last time out, he was pretty much forced to lay off the pace, which didn't bother him, but he may find himself on the lead in this race, which he definitely won't have a problem with (see: Derby, Florida). His bad feet are obviously a concern coming back on two weeks' rest, but he appears to have had no training setbacks, and even if he regresses a few lengths, he's still an easy winner on paper in here. Think he'll be a good play against at Belmont, but can't see him getting beaten in Baltimore.

8.) KENTUCKY BEAR (Reade Baker/Jamie Theriot) 15-1
Chestnut burst onto the scene with a rousing maiden victory, scoring by 6 1/2 at 10-1, earning big figures (93 BSF, 3 TG) on 1/21. His first graded try wasn't as hot, running a dull seventh in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Word is he bled through Lasix that day, so perhaps too much was asked of him early. He was given some time off, and returned with a solid third at 27-1 in the G1 Blue Grass, nearly returning to his maiden figures (90 BSF, 3 3/4 TG). Excluded from the Derby, which may have been a blessing in disguise, because now he shows up with five weeks' rest and a trio of strong five-furlong works. Still looked a little green in the Blue Grass, so perhaps he's been given a chance to mature a little more as well. Not too sure that the extra sixteenth is what he wants, but he's got the midpack running style that could put him in an advantageous position early. Don't think he's ready to take down the big horse, but he may be the most attractive exacta filler on the board.

9.) STEVIL (Nick Zito/John Velazquez) 30-1
Previously okay roan has run two large races since adding blinkers, beaten only 5 1/2 by Pyro in the LA Derby, then running a closing fourth at 68-1 in the Blue Grass. Earned decent enough figures (88 BSF, 4 TG) for that last effort, and with a couple of fast breezes in the last few weeks, he should be at peak form. Just not sure how good that peak form is, and though he's run well his last two, he wasn't really a threat in either race. The waters only get deeper here, and though it wouldn't be a total shock to see him crack the super again, anything more than that would be at least startling.

10.) RILEY TUCKER (Bill Mott/Edgar Prado) 30-1
Zayat runner probably put in the best effort of the three Lexington horses last out, running pretty close to a sizzling pace and still holding on to run third at 10-1, so one can forgive that "hung late" chart comment. Still, his only win came loose on the lead setting a modest pace in his debut, and what's really good with that last breeze? Can't really work much slower than 1:06 for five furlongs. Perhaps Mott is trying to get him to relax a little more, but then why put the blinkers back on in the first place? One of the few in here that may be able to keep in touch with Big Brown early, and he probably won't have too many problems with the added eighth, but he just seems to run up or down to his competition. Wouldn't completely toss him from trifecta and superfecta wagers, as he's got a tendency to hang around late.

11.) GIANT MOON (Rick Schosberg/Ramon Dominguez) 30-1
Giant's Causeway homebred reeled off four straight wins to start career before a disastrous 47-length drubbing in the rainy and foggy G3 Gotham. Not sure why people were so reluctant to draw a line through that run, and he bounced back with a fine race, running fourth in the G1 Wood Memorial at 26-1. He ran a very similar, if not quite as good, race to Tale of Ekati, making a premature move into the teeth of a fast pace and holding on for dear life late. 'Ekati came back to run a decent fourth in the Derby, so not sure what says this colt can't do the same kind of thing in the Preakness. Problem is, the wide post doesn't help matters, and his work on Tuesday may have been a little too fast for four days out of the race. Will still be using him at the bottom of exotics, but not super enthusiastically considering those two factors.

12.) GAYEGO (Paulo Lobo/Mike Smith) 8-1
This'll be the third time on this blog that I rail against this breathtaking colt, but he keeps looking like an underlay to me. He got away with murder when second in the G2 San Felipe, and still tried to get out late, then caught a speed-favoring track in the AR Derby, and again, got out late, earning figures (103 BSF, -1/4 TG) that look phony. In the Derby, he had a miserable trip, but his rankness was his own fault, and that's what got him into much of his trouble. Considering his very questionable distance pedigree, it seems like they're pushing it quite a bit with this guy, and that's before factoring in the back-and-forth cross-country flights over the past six weeks. Now he's got a terrible post to boot and he likely doesn't have the speed to get himself into good position before the turn. Plus he'll probably be overbet by people looking to take a stand versus the chalk. Totally against him.

13.) HEY BYRN (Eddie Plesa, Jr./C.C. Lopez) 20-1
Ran one of the most impressive races of the year by a three-year-old on 2/10, blowing away a good N1X field by 14 1/2, earning figures of 97 and -1 for the effort. Next race, he aired by six in an N2X, getting a 90 and 4 1/4 for that one. His G1 Florida Derby run was pretty bad, but he likely was compromised by a terrible break, and he bounced back with a workmanlike score in the G3 Holy Bull at this distance. Still, his one huge race came around one turn, as did his better races at two. One thing that's tough not to like about him is he never quits running, even if he's taken out of his element, and he's got a very respectable record of 8/4-2-0-2. The post is awful though, and I can't shake the feeling that he's better around one turn, so I'd use him at the bottom of superfectas only.

SELECTIONS
7.) BIG BROWN - No value, but appears poles the best, and admittedly rooting for TC try in three weeks
8.) KENTUCKY BEAR - Could be getting good at the right time, though distance concerns loom
3.) ICABAD CRANE - Closed into molasses pace to run down Mint Lane, rates a chance

Strategy in playing the race? I'll probably be singling Big Brown in the late pick four (which features only a 14% takeout and will get most of my attention), then keying Kentucky Bear in second and third for some small trifecta wagers.

Um, yeah..

2008-05-12T16:07:00.003-04:00

About that "there won't be any more major developments before Wednesday" thing.. Yeah, be a lamb and kinda forget that I said that.

Frank Stronach, who only owns the freaking racetrack that the Preakness will be run at, and Todd Pletcher have decided against sending Harlem Rocker, and the three of them will instead go bully around some hosers in the Queen's Plate Trial. I hate to say I told you so, but it certainly seems like this would be a much bigger deal did we not already have 11-12 horses challenging the delivery truck. Plus I need to feel correct about something, considering that..

Gayego's now a Preakness probability! Don't give us any hint or anything.

This is very good news for people like me who aren't Gayego fans, especially now that Harlem Rocker isn't going. See, I had somehow determined that HR had at least a 25% chance of beating Big Brown, and he likely would've been bet down to 5/2 or 3-1 as wisenheimers like me tried to get another horse into the Preakness winner's circle. Either way, people like me would've had to go two-deep in most pick threes and fours, increasing the price of such tickets.

There also likely would not have been much value on a Big Brown/Harlem Rocker exacta, which I probably would've played against. I would not have had major confidence in doing so. Now, with Gayego as the underbet second choice (my guess would be around 7-1), I feel much more self-assured in betting against the second choice running second. I also will be able to single Big Brown in most multi-race exotics without much worry of an upset.

This is not to say that Gayego couldn't run second or even win. This field, though large, isn't packed with monsters, and Gayego probably is the second most gifted horse in the race. Plus his Derby was filled with trouble. If you watch the run past the finish line the first time, Gayego gets checked back multiple times, which put the tombstone on any chances he had to win.

I'm just saying, he scares me a lot less than Harlem Rocker would've, and doesn't strike me as a legitimate win candidate, as I question his two-turn chops. Then again, I didn't even know he was being considered for the race, so you probably shouldn't listen to me all that much.

Not much left to say

2008-05-12T11:05:00.000-04:00

Paul Moran said about everything that could be said about Casino Drive and the Belmont implications in this piece, so I won't go any further. There also won't be many new developments until Wednesday (note that Recapturetheglory is now out), when a decision on Harlem Rocker is reached and Saturday's races are drawn. Perhaps I'll chime in with a few thoughts on the Friday stakes, but the major updating will take place Wednesday through Friday.

Until then, here's the field:

Big Brown
Behindatthebar
Riley Tucker
Racecar Rhapsody
Giant Moon
Kentucky Bear
Stevil
Tres Borrachos
Ichabad Crane
Hey Byrn
Yankee Bravo
Macho Again

Possible:
Harlem Rocker

Hey Byrn, Ichabad Crane, Riley Tucker join fray; Lex talk

2008-05-09T16:32:00.004-04:00

Macho Again is going to the Ohio Derby, while Harlem Rocker's status will be up in the air until after he breezes "sometime this weekend". Pretty amazing how quickly this went from being a seven-horse race to a field of 12, possibly 13. As I said before, this lessens the pressure on Stronach/Pletcher to enter, but it also means that regardless of their decision, this race won't be a total walkover.

For me, the key to this race will be chucking or using sparingly the Lexington runners. Chances are, because of that big figure in the Lex, Behindatthebar, Riley Tucker and Racecar Rhapsody will all find themselves between 10-1 and 20-1, which is too low for me. My guess is Behindatthebar will be 10-1, with Riley Tucker and Racecar Rhapsody closer to 20-1. While the Lexington number made sense on its surface (1:42 was significantly faster than the other 8 1/2-furlong races that day), there were just too many jumps in form for me to totally believe it.

It's very similar to my feelings on the AR Derby, where the first four finishers all managed to run career tops. Z Fortune ran 10th in the Derby, and Gayego ran 17th. Clearly not an indisputable condemnation of the race, but not an endorsement either.

In the Lex, Behindatthebar won with a 99 Beyer (previous high 89), Samba Rooster ran a huge second with a 97 (previous high 96, but that was around one turn), Riley Tucker ran third with a 95 (previous high 85), Racecar Rhapsody ran fourth with a 95 (previous high 93, but that was in the Delta Jackpot, whose figure looks more questionable by the day, RR's next high was 87). Further back, Big Glen ran a 93 (previous high 86) and Tomcito ran a 92 (previous high 85). So one can come to two conclusions when analyzing the Lexington figure: Either six horses ran career bests, or the figure is inflated.

I take synthetic figures with a grain of salt as it is, but this one looks doubly dubious with all of those form jumps. You don't need me to tell you that synthetic races are often run like turf races, with the final time being directly influenced by the early pace. Considering the wicked fractions in the Lexington (:22.78, :45.21, 1:09.48), chances were that they wouldn't come home in 1:44.

For the record, here are the approximate internal splits for the three Preakness horses from the Lexington:

Behindatthebar - :25.24, :47.50, 1:11.12, 1:36.04, 1:42.14
Riley Tucker - :23.76, :45.95, 1:10.05, 1:35.63, 1:42.39
Racecar Rhapsody - :25.24, :47.99, 1:11.77, 1:36.53, 1:42.47

Eight days out of the Preakness, it's way early to be forming an opinion, but, depending on price, the horses that (so far) interest me most to fill out an exacta behind Big Brown are, in order, Kentucky Bear, Recapturetheglory and Giant Moon. I think all three of them ran very well in their respective most recent races, and they'll likely be in good striking position, alongside the big horse, just off the flank of Tres Borrachos. If I can get $35 or so back on a Big Brown/Kentucky Bear exacta, that might be my play of the race.

Dutrow concerned about "Pletcher's white horse"

2008-05-07T18:41:00.001-04:00

Love him or hate him (and I'm certainly not a fan), the guy tends to have at least one amusing line per interview.

Pletcher's white horse aside, there is certainly an interesting little field shaping up for this race. I staunchly disagreed with someone who said that the Preakness would be a six-horse race, followed by a four-horse field in the Belmont, and now, with the additions of Recapturetheglory and Racecar Rhapsody, we figure to have anywhere between 9-12 horses running in Baltimore. There are just too many things that can go wrong with a horse over the course of five weeks for trainers not take a shot at a prestigious race with a big purse if they've got a halfway decent three-year-old.

The race, at least so far, also sets up to be run fairly fairly. There's some speed signed on (Tres Borrachos, Recapturetheglory) to give the closers (Yankee Bravo, Behindatthebar, Racecar Rhapsody) a shot, but not so much that the stalkers (Big Brown, Kentucky Bear) will be sucked into a meltdown. I'm very much looking forward to this, maybe even moreso than the Derby, since the Preakness is not as much of a clusterfuck, and because I'm anxious to see how Big Brown has come out of the Derby.

My only concern with the expanding field size is that there will be less pressure on Stronach and Pletcher to enter Harlem Rocker. If five or so horses were showing up, the calls for the white horse's presence would be pretty loud, especially since Pimlico is owned by Stronach. Now, however, with close to a full field looking probable, it's more likely that Stronach and Pletcher will be able to slink off up to Woodbine unnoticed.

For now though, it at least looks as if Big Brown will have to be at least 75% to wrap up the second jewel.

Putting Derby talk to rest

2008-05-06T18:13:00.005-04:00

A person I respect very much recently wrote something over on Derby Trail Forums that precisely articulated just about everything I, and apparently many other fans of horse racing, have been feeling since the Derby was run on Saturday. To take a few brief excerpts:

But, people are angry. Trust me, I'm an angry guy, I understand. We're upset about what happened to Eight Belles and we're upset that this unfortunate incident is now being used by ignorant zealots with an agenda against this game that we love. And, even though we know they are wrong about most of what they speak, we sadly know there is at least a hint of truth in some of what they say ( truth, in all likelihood, that they don't even understand ). We're also frustrated that nobody in power in the industry has come out rationally, or almost nobody, to attempt to quell the hysteria by those outside the industry.

We're also frustrated that this Derby weekend was marred by infighting within the industry that dramatically affected the disemination of the Churchill Downs signal for betting purposes. We can't understand why the industry seems to continue to act in a way that is contrary to our interests, that is the racing fans who support the game, and even though many of us do understand and sympathize with the parties involved, it's hard not to be frustrated that all too often we seem to be the ones left out in the cold.

But I'm not frustrated. I'm happy that Belmont is open, and there's still eleven weeks left at that beautiful racetrack, and then there's six weeks at glorious Saratoga, followed by seven more at Belmont in the Fall. I'm happy that there's a great chance that in less than five weeks there will be a huge crowd at Belmont hoping for a TC and for a few weeks in NY people will actually care about horse racing. I'm happy that I'll be frustrated on a daily basis betting on the game I love. I'm happy that horse racing exists to give me something to bitch about. I'm happy that there will be many Pick-6s coming up for me to take tough beats betting. I'm happy that my life isn't as boring as those that haven't figured out how great this game is on a daily basis.

Bravo. I personally think this is the perfect way to put the Derby behind us, good, bad, ugly, and everything in between. No matter what you remember the Derby for, it's my humble suggestion that you should make it just that, a memory. Dwelling on what's already happened seems like an awful waste of time, considering that there are so many new things to witness and learn and consider every day in this game.

To go along with what that person said, I'm pissed off as well. About Churchill's paved highway taking another life, about repeated horse doper Dutrow possibly having racing's first TC winner since '78, about all of the (mostly unwarranted) negative publicity the sport is getting due to Eight Belles' death, but I refuse to dwell.

Churchill will hopefully learn its lesson soon enough about not screwing with the track on big days, a horse with a legitimate shot at the Crown trained by Dutrow is better than no horse with a chance at the Crown, and the spurious outrage from the press will soon go by the wayside, provided there are no more fatalities in the TC series.

In the meantime, we have a Preakness to get to. And though certainly not the quality of years' past, the middle jewel definitely will have its intrigue. Big Brown, though obviously at the head of his class, will now have to come back on just two weeks' rest, and even the previously supercilious Dutrow doesn't sound so cocksure this time around:

"I don't think I'll be as confident," said Dutrow, who was extremely confident before the Derby. "I really do like training a horse up to a race, and I can't do it now. It looks like he's the best horse in the Preakness. I don't like coming back in two weeks, but I've got no choice."

There's also the prospect of Harlem Rocker, the easy winner of the Withers, 106 BSF in hand, taking a shot at the big horse, reminding many of Bernardini's path to the '06 Preakness. The decision made on behalf of the silver Macho Uno colt will go a long way towards determining whether or not the Preakness a race, instead of a showcase for Big Brown, but even if he doesn't show, and the field truly is inferior, I sure won't be complaining about a Big Brown win.

In terms of gambling, there still will be plenty of ways to make money on the race and on Preakness Day. And as a fan, nothing would delight me more than to see three weeks of Belmont buzz to help marginalize the zealots and remind everyone how compelling racing can be.

So please, everyone take a breath, get a grip. The Preakness is 11 days away.

/dick joke

(Insert cliche about highs and lows of horse racing here)

2008-05-04T02:02:00.003-04:00

Considering the general tone of this blog (sarcastic and gambling-oriented), I'm going to try to do this as tactfully as possible. Fuck you, Churchill Downs, and your big day highways. Before I get into my tangent, know this: I know little to nothing about track maintenance. I watch the tractors go by in the mornings at Saratoga, and point and smile at them like I'm five years old. I know that tracks get harrowed and turf courses get watered. Beyond that, I go by word of mouth and visual and physical evidence. And once I saw that muskrat Elite Squadron go :21.98 and :43.70 and keep going to win in 1:21.53 today, I thought to myself, these fuckers are at it again.

Every racetrack in America soups up their main track to some extent for its respective big day(s) of racing. Times at Belmont are usually quick on Belmont day. But the track at CD on Derby and BC Day would be a huge running gag if the results weren't so freaking tragic. After Pine Island and Fleet Indian both broke down in the same race in BC '06, I hoped I'd seen the last of the paved highway in Louisville. Today, with the Elite Squadron race and the eventual breakdown of Eight Belles, it apparently is still an issue.

I know what you're saying, a few breakdowns does not a dangerous racetrack make, and horses are going to break down no matter what, but spare me. Show me a track whose surface changes this starkly for the worse on its big day(s) of racing. Name me a racetrack that had four serious breakdowns (counting Chelokee) on five big days of racing in less than two years. During the rest of the meet, Churchill looks like a fine track for the equine. I watch plenty of replays from the Downs, and I rarely, if ever, see a horse go down. But on these showcase days, the track somehow manages to quicken a few seconds, and horses invariably begin to start falling.

Eight Belles deserved better than that, guys. The fans deserved better, the bettors deserved better, the owners, trainers, jockeys and horses deserved better. Stop fucking with the track. You people are the reason that dipshits across America are installing Polytrack and Cushion Track and Pro-Ride and Tapeta left and right, because on your biggest days, out of a desire for track records (as if anybody gives two shits about track records anymore), you risk having these beautiful animals collapse and die in front of the world. You risk having our sport sustain yet another black eye when it's already down for the count.

Rant over.

As for Big Brown, this horse apparently did a lot of growing up over the past five weeks. The colt I saw win the Florida Derby was way too immature and green to deal with everything that would be thrown at him today. But today, the son of Boundary was simply a machine. Nothing fazed the horse, he was an utter professional for every step of the ten furlongs, and if his feet trouble are indeed behind him, we're probably (hopefully) looking at racing's first Triple Crown winner in 30 years. I'm no doe-eyed dreamer, I've seen firsthand the amount of crap that can come in the way of a TC-worthy horse. Hell, the pinhead on Big Brown's back cost Real Quiet the Crown in '98, so don't rule out him fucking this horse over too. However, and you'll be hearing this a lot from now until the Preakness, this is such a bad crop of three-year-olds, and he looked so damn good in the Derby, the Crown is his to lose. Much can change from now until the Belmont on June 7, but barring physical setbacks, I sure as shit won't be betting against him.

It's obviously hard to root for insufferable douches like Dutrow and Iavarone, and there's definitely a part inside me that would love to see him get beaten. But as a New Yorker who's had to suffer through three lame Belmonts after the exhilarating buzz of Smarty Jones' TC try in '04, I at least want to see him cruise at Pimlico.

To close, I had so much damn fun doing this blog over the past few weeks, that I just might keep the URL, scratch the Derby-specific gimmicks, and comment haphazardly on Triple Crown goings on until the Belmont. In fact, I think I will. See you soon then? I suck at exits.

Five minutes and counting!

2008-05-03T18:05:00.003-04:00

Hope everyone had a safe and profitable Derby Day, and wherever you are, hope you're enjoying the most unique spectacle in all of sports. Of course hoping that, first and foremost, everyone crosses the wire safely, but let's get to the tickets.

Have a double going to Z Fortune, Smooth Air and Denis of Cork, and played a series of exactas combining the three chalks on top of the three covered in the double, as well as Cool Coal Man and Eight Belles.

Be back sometime after the race to make sense of it all!

Pick Three go bust!

2008-05-03T15:49:00.000-04:00

You can't close on the CD turf course right now, and I didn't factor that into my handicapping when I excluded Bayou's Lassie. Was right in trying to beat Dreaming of Anna, but picked the wrong horse to do it with.

Humana looks very straightforward: Hystericalady, Miss Macy Sue, Sugar Swirl and Miraculous Miss look imposing, but the latter likely won't get enough speed to close into.

Woodford Reserve looks to play into the hands of Thorn Song, who will be on the front end and who very much likes a wet turf course. After him, it's pretty wide open.

Will post my Derby plays before the race!

Saturday Undercard Extravashitza

2008-05-03T12:47:00.000-04:00

Missing the Humana and Woodford Reserve, but I'll get to those a little later! Weather seems to have cleared up, good luck on Derby Day!

5th (1:21) - 74th Running of THE CHURCHILL DOWNS. Grade II. Purse $250,000 For Four-year-olds And Upward

1.) ELITE SQUADRON (Jim Baker/John Velazquez)
Officer chestnut has a pretty distinct pattern of running one huge race, bouncing off of that race and taking a few tries to get back to that form. Well, his last was the biggest effort of his career to date, with him running a head second at 38-1 in the G2 Commonwealth. Before that, he was run into the ground by Commentator, and he likely was aided last out by being able to run relatively easy fractions up front. Good news for him is that, for a seven-furlong G2, this didn't draw a ton of rocket speed. With that said, there are enough pressers (Noonmark, Junior College, Island Warrior, Hewitts, Spotsgone) to at least keep him honest. His workouts since the Commonwealth have been fine, and he does sport three wins in five tries on this track. Mixed feelings.

2.) THOUSAND WORDS (Bobby Frankel/David Flores)
Juddmonte colt has yet to run on actual dirt, and this is an interesting spot for him, considering that he probably could've been competitive in a weak renewal of the Woodford Reserve later in the card. Was fifth as the favorite in the Commonwealth, but he had to run behind a moderate pace, much like he did in the G2 San Pasqual three back. Though the fractions should be quicker today, they probably won't be sizzling, which might set up his best shot. Major issue is how he'll do on the dirt, and betting against Danehill progeny or Danehill progeny's progeny on dirt has been a profitable angle in Breeders' Cups. Think he's best suited to a mile on the grass.

3.) NOONMARK (Steve Asmussen/Shaun Bridgmohan)
Five-year-old's talent finally paid off two back, when he nabbed the G3 Mr. Prospector at GP over quality sprinter Mach Ride. Not sure quite what happened in New Orleans, but perhaps he was a bit too far off the modest pace early on? Either way, he lost to a serious runner that day in Euroears, and Semaphore Man came back to run big at OP. Faces an easier field, believe it or not, in this G2, and he should be able to sit a good trip off the early speed. Don't like that this fragile horse appears to have missed a work last week. Contender nonetheless.

4.) JUNIOR COLLEGE (Tony Reinstedler/Jesus Castanon)
Six-year-old gelding has turned into quite the useful sprinter, and he's shown in his past few races a degree of versatility that we hadn't seen from this son of Ide before. He gets away from Semaphore Man, who defeated him twice at Oaklawn, and his figures make him very competitive. Regularly runs around 100 on the BSF scale, but his TG numbers have been very high, with him getting back to back -3's before running a -1 1/2 last out. Wired a very fast overnight at CD last fall, so it's not like he just loves the Oaklawn strip either. Main concern is him having to negotiate another furlong, but if he can handle that, he looms large.

5.) ISLAND WARRIOR (Cody Autrey/Jamie Theriot)
Autrey must have liked what he saw with this $80,000 claim, turning him around in less than a month in a G2. He's a horse that liked to settle just off the pace and make his run, and he should be able to do that with moderate splits up front. Has a few fast races on his resume, but he's never beaten anyone of consequence, and although he appears to be coming into this in peak form, that form probably isn't good enough to score here. Wouldn't rule out a minor award at a big price however.

6.) HEWITTS (Bob Hess/Kent Desormeaux)
Concerto gelding gets a class hike following five consecutive 90+ BSF's to start his career. Got the speed to hit the front in this race, and appears to get stronger the longer she goes, being two-for-two at the distance. With that said, this isn't a classic G2, but it's significantly better than any field he faced at home in California. Considering that we don't quite know how good he is, it wouldn't be a total shock to see him wire the field, but he should probably be used sparingly.

7.) CARNACKS CHOICE (Greg Foley/Garret Gomez(
Chestnut colt came out of nowhere to run a huge race at KEE last out, scoring by a neck at 12-1 and earning a huge 107 BSF for the effort (though he only got a 1 TG). Can't blame connections for trying this race off that big effort, but considering that he won the Lafayette at 10-1 at KEE last spring, it's a distinct possibility that he just loves the KEE poly. Did run well over this track 11/17 behind Elite Squadron. If he repeats his last, he's obviously a huge danger, but that seems unlikely. Tough read.

8.) WANDERIN BOY (Zito/Nakatani)
SCRATCHED FOR ALYSHEBA

9.) SPOTSGONE (William Fires/Joe Johnson)
Son of Bright Launch has made quite the career for himself wiring minor stakes at 8-8 1/2 furlongs, but the last time he tried something like this, he quit badly in the G3 Ack Ack. He fits for the most part on figures, but if he wants the lead, he's going to have Elite Squadron and Hewitts to deal with. Can't get into him.

SELECTIONS
4.) JUNIOR COLLEGE - Distance is a concern, but otherwise looks strong
3.) NOONMARK - Dangerous if able to rebound from Kenner third
7.) CARNACKS CHOICE - Heck of a run last time, now do it again

6th (2:11) - 53rd Running of the LA TROIENNE. Grade III. Purse $150,000 For Fillies, Three Years Old

1.) SECRET GYPSY (Ronny Werner/Kent Desormeaux)
This $10,000 chestnut had one of the most interesting runs of any two-year-old in her debut at SAR. She refused to get in the gate for a good few minutes, then, after finally being loaded, shot to the front and opened up to win by 6 1/4 at 13-1 in what was then track record time. Earned big numbers (100 BSF, 2 1/2 TG) for that effort, but she fractured a cannon bone soon thereafter, and hasn't been seen since. Quite the ambitious spot for Werner to enter her first back, so he must feel good about what he has. With that said, if her debut is any indication, she's a speedball, and there's a plethora of speed signed on in this race. Could be a nice one, but with the physical problems and the other frontrunners, this may not be the race for her.

2.) AMERICAN COUNTY (Dale Romans/Robby Albarado)
Gibson County bay has a super local record (5/2-1-2), but is another who likes to do her running early, and her two worst races came the two times she tries to go longer than six panels. Her race three back was super, but if she can't clear after the first call, she's not usually the same filly. Won a very subpar renewal of the Sunshine Million Oaks two back, and Prado sticks with Keep the Peace. Leaning elsewhere.

3.) COLOR ME UP (D. Wayne Lukas/Calvin Borel)
Aptitude filly is still a maiden, having run second four different times, coming into this off a decent third in an Oaklawn overnight at a mile. Cuts back to one turn, but she's another speedball who doesn't seem to possess much ability to pass horses, and she's light on figures.

4.) GAME FACE (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez)
Zabeel red comes into this off a disappointing second at 3-5 in the G2 Davona Dale, but she lost to a nice one that day (Bsharpsonata), and it could've been just the kind of race she needed to toughen her up, considering she had been beating up on weak competition before that. Not crazy about her missing a work in the beginning of April, but her two CD breezes have been solid, and key for her is that she's one of the few in here who's proven the ability to come from off the pace and win. Major factor on her best.

5.) INFORMED DECISION (Jonathan Sheppard/Ramon Dominguez)
Stunning daughter of Monarchos rebounded in a major way following dull fourth in Davona Dale, sitting off the pace and cruising to score by 6 1/4 in a KEE OC/N2X, earning a 101 BSF and 2 TG for the effort. Love her tractability. Get the feeling she's not as good as her last or as bad as her two back race. Connections certainly believed, paying $320,000 for her as a two-year-old despite her being by a $6,000 sire. Should be able to benefit from sizzling early fractions, and merits a big chance.

6.) KEEP THE PEACE (Eddie Kenneally/Edgar Prado)
More speed in a speed-loaded field, this Touch Gold filly also fell victim to Bsharpsonata as a heavy chalk, two back in the G2 Forward Gal. Ran a mediocre fourth in the G2 Beaumont last out, but willing to excuse that race because of the poly. There isn't much, however, that suggests she'll be able to win a vicious pace battle and hold off Game Face or Informed Decision should they come calling late. Talented to be sure, but like many in here, the shape of the race makes it an iffy spot.

7.) ALINA (Steve Asmussen/Shaun Bridgmohan)
Came Home lass exploded when transferred to Asmussen two back, scoring by 18 3/4 in a Delta Downs overnight, then gave Derby runner Eight Belles a stern challenge in the G2 Fantasy at Oaklawn. Prety impressive, considering the class hike she faced, and she looms the class of this field off that effort alone. With that said, more speed, though she showed the ability at Remington last fall to run decently from off the pace. Not sure that she didn't just find herself on the lead last out, so would be hesitant to call her another one-dimensional speed horse. If Bridgmohan takes her back and she can deal with that, she's dangerous. If not, she could be another pace casualty at short odds. Mixed feelings.

8.) TIZ TO DREAM (Ian Wilkes/Javier Castellano)
One of the few with off the pace ability, so she deserves a second look based on that alone, but her GP figures were slow, and she'd need a major move forward to score in here. Like the way she's been working, and she could factor at long odds, but can't quite justify playing her on top.

9.) MINEWANDER (David Vance/Larry Melancon)
Very similar to the filly to her inside in that she'll benefit from a favorable pace scenario, but she may not be quite good enough to get it done regardless. After all, she just got trounced by Informed Decision last out, and unless you think that one just loved the polytrack, what gives the idea that this girl can turn the tables today? Always puts in her run, so I could see her snagging a piece, but prefer a classier closer.

SELECTIONS
4.) GAME FACE - May be underlaid, but think she'll be ready to bounce back after meeting Bsharpsonata
5.) INFORMED DECISION - Could've just been poly that she liked, but she could also be turning corner
7.) ALINA - Makes a ton of sense if she can just lay off the early pace
1.) SECRET GYPSY - Looked smashing at SAR, but draws tough assignment off long break

7th (3:03) - 19th Running of THE CHURCHILL DISTAFF TURF MILE. Grade III. Purse $150,000 For Fillies And Mares, Three Years Old And Upward

1.) YOU GO WEST GIRL (Tom Proctor/Julien Leparoux)
Daughter of Mr. Greeley returns to site of big second in G3 Regret as a three-year-old, and she finished the year nicely with a last-to-first score in a fast KEE N2X. She's certainly got a kick on her, and that should serve her well, what with the abundance of speed signed on. Only been out of the exacta once in eight races, and that was when chasing today's chalk in the G3 Pucker Up last summer. Her return race on the KEE poly was slow on the BSF scale (77), but she broke in the air and got a decent TG number (6) for the effort. Problem is, she was life and death to get by some weaker girls, and her two breezes since the race have been pedestrian. That may be by design, but just wondering a bit whether she's ready just yet second off the pine. Pace scenario favors her and her odds will be juicy, but she needs to raise her game a bit.

2.) SHARP SUSAN (Bill Mott/Kent Desormeaux)
Consistent filly was given the winter off following a dull seventh in the G1 QE II Cup at KEE, and she came back running, closing in :23 or so on a wet course last out to take a classified allowance with respectable figures (92 BSF, 5 1/2 TG). Expecting at least slight improvement in her second start off the bench, and that makes her a major factor. Main concern is whether or not she'll be anchored too close to a fast pace, but she's proven able to take back if necessary in the past. Definite contender.

3.) DANZON (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez)
Mercurial five-year-old has run some huge races (third at 17-1 against boys in last year's G1 Woodford Reserve, facile score in G3 Kentucky Cup Distaff on poly), and also some stinkers (third at odds-on in G3 Mint Julep, 10th in BC F&M Turf, third at even-money in allowance last out). One thing is common in her races though: If you give her some pace to run at, she's plenty dangerous. She should definitely get that in here, and although it's dicey to bet closers in mile races on the turf, she could offer value if enough bettors are deterred by her last race. Using in all slots.

4.) LADY CARLOCK (Carl Nafzger/Robby Albarado)
Late-running filly finally broke her N1X condition over yielding course at CD last fall, and since then, has improved, running a few big races at GP before closing into modest pace to score at KEE going 1 3/16 last out. While she certainly will get the setup she likes in here, her top figures (89 BSF, 7 TG) leave her well short of what it would take to win this. The type of horse that's tough to leave out of trifectas, because she always comes with her run, but a tough one to love on top with the class hike.

5.) NEW EDITION (Steve Asmussen/Shaun Bridgmohan)
Finished behind Sharp Susan a few times last year and also narrowly missed reeling in Dreaming of Anna in the Virginia Oaks, but she's yet to break through on this level. Her return race, a third in an overnight at Sam Houston, may have been better than it looked, but she still weakened against a field she should've handled. On her best, she's got a shot of hitting the board, but she's gotta prove she's ready to beat this caliber.

6.) V.I.P. PRINCESS (Adam Hovermale/John McKee)
Thunder Gulch filly tries grass for the first time, and seems woefully overmatched in here. She's got plenty of early speed, so she figures to give Dreaming of Anna all she can handle in the first five furlongs, but after that, not sure how this filly plans on keeping up.

7.) BAYOU'S LASSIE (Dale Romans/Edgar Prado)
Pretty peculiar that this mare scratched out of a pretty paceless G2 Louisville on the dirt to run in this speed-happy DTM. She's certainly got the goods when allowed a loose lead, but she may have to run as fast as she's ever run on grass to get to the front, and then it's likely she'll be feeling the effects late.

8.) VENTURA (Bobby Frankel/Garret Gomez)
Winner of three in a row, this Juddmonte homebred comes into this off a solid score in the G2 Madison at KEE, and before that, she won a quick N3X on the downhill at SA without much urging. Main concern is whether or not she'll be able to lay off the pace, but if she can get a good, clean trip from the middle of the pack, she figures to be scary in the stretch.

9.) DREAMING OF ANNA (Wayne Catalano/Cornelio Velasquez)
There isn't much to knock about the winner of the '06 BC Juvy Fillies, as she's 9-for-13 lifetime with nearly $2 million in the bank. With that said, it's pretty established that she's a one-dimensional speed horse, yet she continues to draw fields devoid of much early pace. That trend ends today, when she'll have to deal with New Edition, V.I.P. Princess and Bayou's Lassie on the front end, the latter of which can definitely go with her. Going to be plenty overbet off her big figure last out (104 BSF), and if she's able to throw one of her best efforts, she definitely is scary. But this is the exact type of horse one needs to try and beat, and she's useful in savers mostly.

SELECTIONS
3.) DANZON - Been giving this one lots of chances, but she actually may offer value today, runs well behind good pace
8.) VENTURA - The hot horse, could get the first run on the speed
2.) SHARP SUSAN - Classy filly should be factor with improvement off bench
9.) DREAMING OF ANNA - Needs no introduction, but will need a break up front

8th (3:57) - 22nd Running of THE HUMANA DISTAFF. Grade I. Purse $300,000 For Fillies And Mares, Four Years Old And Upward

1.) HYSTERICALADY (Jerry Hollendorfer/Rafael Bejarano)
Defending champeen and runner up in last year's BC Distaff, this mare bounced back from a fourth at 1-5 in the G1 Santa Monica with a score in the G3 Azeri. That was a pretty weak field though, and her figures for the effort (95 BSF, 2 1/4 TG) were relatively weak. Distorted Humor chestnut definitely wouldn't mind some give in the ground, and she could be rounding back to top form, as she's likely been pointed for this. Definitely scary when on her game.

2.) CHANGE UP (Steve Margolis/Kent Desormeaux)
Another chestnut by Distorted Humor, this homebred seemed poised to do big things after her fast wins as a juvenile, but she's never reproduced her two-year-old form, and now she's gotta deal with probably the best field she's ever lined up against. Speedy filly doesn't have much quit in her, but jeez, wouldn't you like to see more than one mediocre GP allowance win in the past year? On the plus side, she's trained well, and she's got a good record (6/2-3-0) over this course, but this would be a major surprise were she to get her picture taken.

3.) GRAEME SIX (Tom Amoss/Julien Leparoux)
Appears to be coming into this in the best shape of her life, having just won a fast version of the $50,000 Carousel at Oaklawn last out (102 BSF, 1 TG). That's two stakes wins in a row, albeit over lesser competition, but now she returns to a track she won and missed by a nose on last spring and summer. She's certainly got talent, and she's versatile enough to let the race come to her, which is always a positive in these long sprints. Still a pretty significant class hike she's facing, but she merits a long look as the hot horse.

4.) MISS MACY SUE (Kelly Von Hemel/Eusebio Razo)
Got a paid workout last out in beating two rivals at 1-20, and this mare's got an excuse for the only two bad races she's run recently. The BC F&M Sprint was a washout, and she was tombstoned by Prado in the G2 Honorable Miss last summer. Other than that, she's 6-for-6 in the last two seasons, and she returns to the site of her G3 Winning Colors triumph. Tries seven furlongs for the first time, but her running style suggests another furlong shouldn't be a major issue. Consistently earns TG figures just under 0, and BSF's in the high 90's or low 100's. Versatility noted. Should be ready to roll.

5.) SUGAR SWIRL (Brian Lynch/Javier Castellano)
Sheesh, tough to find much wrong with those three GP races, other than that she faced a whole lot of nobody in her wins. Still, she won the right way, and those recent figures (100 BSF, 98 BSF, -1 TG, -1 1/4 TG, -1 1/4 TG) make her quite imposing in here. Quality mare gets the acid test, but she's too fast to leave out.

6.) WINDYINDY (Carl Nafzger/Calvin Borel)
Entered in hopes that a pace meltdown occurs, but that really doesn't seem likely with the way the race is shaping up, and even if it did occur, there are other, more viable closers to include. Can't see it.

7.) MIRACULOUS MISS (Steve Klesaris/Jeremy Rose)
Used to be a very big fan of this mare, but got off the bandwagon just in time to see her run a closing second at 43-1 in the BC F&M Sprint. Nothing wrong with her third in the DeFrancis Dash, what with it being against Benny the Bull, who only came back to win the $2,000,000 Golden Shaheen in Dubai. She's lightly-raced, so she probably is just about reaching her peak, and she certainly fits on figures, but the pace shape just seems to work against her. Tough to ignore her when she's at her best though.

8.) BARONESS THATCHER (Bill Mott/John Velazquez)
Has one big race on her resume, the nose second to BC F&M Sprint winner Maryfield in the G1 Ballerina, but other than that, it's been a bunch of disappointing running lines for this Johannesburg filly. She had seemingly no excuse two back, and she was no match for Sugar Swirl last time out. Now she's gotta face that one again, plus the defending champion of this race, plus Miss Macy Sue, plus a mare that finished not too far off of Benny the Bull and Talent Search. Not using her.

9.) INTANGAROO (Gary Sherlock/Alonso Quinonez)
Late runner has spent her entire career on synthetic tracks, and broke through when she nabbed the Santa Monica over Hystericalady at 26-1 two back. However, that runner is likely not at her best on the fake stuff, and this filly has sincedropped a decision in a weak G3 Las Flores. Outside post and lack of speed up front don't help.

SELECTIONS
5.) SUGAR SWIRL - Faces stiffer competition, but seems to be in the proverbial zone
1.) HYSTERICALADY - Returning champion figures tough if at peak form
4.) MISS MACY SUE - Underrated mare could be ready for her close-up
7.) MIRACULOUS MISS - Pace works against, but her last was too impressive to ignore

Giant Gizmo ends my day

2008-05-02T16:01:00.005-04:00

As I like to say, I wouldn't have played that horse with Monopoly money. Oh well, it's time to get to work on tomorrow's card, and though the turf will likely be ripped to shreds, the dirt should be in decent shape by the time the stakes come around.

EDIT - In my single-minded selfishness, I was unaware that Chelokee, in fact, broke down in the stretch with a life-threatening injury, similar to the one that befell Barbaro. More rough luck for Michael Matz, and here's hoping Visionaire runs well for him tomorrow. Hope Chelokee can pull through..

Here's the rundown:

Race 5 - G2 Churchill Downs S., $250,000, 7 fur., 4+ [1:21]
Race 6 - G3 La Troienne S., $150,000, 7 1/2 fur., 3F [2:11]
Race 7 - G3 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S., $150,000, 1 mile (turf), 3+FM [3:03]
Race 8 - G1 Humana Distaff S., Purse $300,000, 4+FM [3:57]
Race 9 - G1 Woodford Reserve Classic S., Purse $500,000, 3+ [4:52]
Race 10 - G1 Kentucky Derby, Purse $2,000,000, 3 [6:04]

Be back later on tonight (go Celtics)!

Late pick four

2008-05-02T14:50:00.000-04:00

Now that they're sloppy and yielding, here's my cheap stab at the late four. Better off saving money for tomorrow, when the weather will be calmer.

1,4,6,8 / 2,3,6 / 3,9 / 8

I just think Proud Spell will be best equipped to handle the big field and the slop, although there certainly are others who should move up on the wet.

I may double up on Grace and Power (#6) in the seventh, and I might play a saver double late with Pure Clan (#11).

Let's just hope they don't take the ninth off the grass.

Rest of Oaks Day

2008-05-02T11:54:00.002-04:00

Continuing to keep an eye on the rain situation. Right now, it's 76° and partly cloudy at the Downs, but TWC is reporting the always helpful and informative 50% chance of precipitation during the day, with "scattered thunderstorms" expected. Most of the heavy rain is supposed to come and go tonight, but the way I'm interpreting it, don't rule out a few midday storms.

One thing's for sure, the radar doesn't look promising, but in my entirely amateur opinion, most of the severe rain seems like it could conceivably miss Louisville.

Handicapped races 6-10, and here's what I've come up with.

6TH (G2 LOUISVILLE STAKES) - #7 GINGER PUNCH looked like a pretty safe single until the scratch of #4 BAYOU'S LASSIE. Bobby Frankel's (as well as my) explanation of Ginger Punch's dull Apple Blossom third was that she runs much better with a target. Well, with Bayou's Lassie and #1 SILVER KNOCKERS out, Ginger Punch may find herself on the lead again if #2 LEAR'S PRINCESS or #6 LEAH'S SECRET don't gun. Going to be an interesting race to watch, considering I have no idea how it'll shape up. I kind of like Leah's Secret a little bit, as she's got excuses for most of her recent bad races, but I hate that Velazquez chose Silver Knockers over her before the scratch. Five-horse field now, I think I'll pass.

7TH (EDGEWOOD STAKES) - #6 GRACE AND POWER is simply the class of the field and will probably be the single in my pick four, but the likely pace scenario might work against her. With the scratch of #9 SUMMER COURTSHIP out of a field already devoid of much speed, Grace and Power, who may do her best work from off the pace, could be fighting an uphill battle. Still, I think she's the best of the bunch, and she's shown the ability in her last two races to close into pedestrian splits. Plus, Klesaris has put a bunch of bullets into her (not literally), so maybe they're trying to get her more involved early. The Bobby Flay owned filly was pointing for the G1 Ashland, but popped a splint. She appears to have recovered well from that, and with KEE done, rather than chance a bad run on dirt, Klesaris puts her back on a surface she likes. With that said, I'll be hedging slightly with #1 ZEE ZEE and #4 CLEARLY FOXY, who ran well on grass as two-year-olds and return to the turf following mediocre dirt form, and #8 MY BABY BABY, who ran a big race considering that she had a super wide trip.

8TH (G3 ALYSHEBA STAKES) - There's a little saying I have: "If you're thinking about singling Magna Grad, then the race is pretty bad." I'm so sick of giving #3 MAGNA GRADUATE chances, it's unbelievable. Yet, in this race, I can't talk myself off of him.. AGAIN. He was non-threatening in the Excelsior, but he took back behind a mediocre pace, endured a wide trip, and still was beaten only 2 1/2. His figures for the race (101 BSF, -3/4 TG) were respectable enough, and when he actually gets some pace to run at, he's decent. If #7 JONESBORO goes with #2 WANDERIN BOY and they draw #6 CHELOKEE close to a quick pace, the spoils should be Magna Graduate's. What to make of Wanderin Boy, anyway? He's seven now, and aside from a big second in the Whitney on a speed-favoring track, he didn't do much of anything last year. He did, however, win this race when somehow allowed loose in the slop, so if it's wet, he's a must include, but if it's dry, I'm against him at less than 4-1. Chelokee deserves inclusion considering the sharp, if unspectacular prep race, and the distinct possibility that he's matured into a legitimate handicap horse following a decent three-year-old season.

9TH (G3 CROWN ROYAL AMERICAN TURF STAKES) - Probably the toughest race of the sequence to figure out, but I'll narrow down the contenders based on how I think the race will play out. Once again, this appears to be a race without much early foot, which is why I think #8 PRUSSIAN, though underlaid, is a must include. He really had no excuse in the Transylvania, but polytrack. That's how bad the surface is. I only have to say one word, and you understand that the race is a possible throwout. He ran a few good ones on grass before flopping in the BC Juvy Turf. That was on yielding turf, so if it's wet today, maybe downgrade his chances. If that's the case though, upgrade #9 SAILOR'S CAP, who's my top choice anyway. In his two losses on grass, he was forced up on a quick pace, and he was handled much more smartly last out, when he won impressively on yielding KEE turf at 7-1. His figures for the race (92 BSF, 4 TG) make him very imposing, and Jimmy Toner, one of my favorite conditioners, likely wouldn't put him in this if he didn't belong. #3 CANNONBALL ran remarkably well in the BCJT considering that he was returning on five days rest, and he was on too fast of a pace two back. Ward says he's ready for the race of his life, and considering that he has competetive BSF's and got a strong 5 1/2 TG for his Hallandale Beach third behind Cowboy Cal, that best probably is good enough to win this. He, like Sailor's Cap, will be close to what should be a pedestrian pace, and he has handled wet grass before as well.

I'll post a pick four play once we know a little more about whether those storms hit the 'Ville.

Oaks Preview

2008-05-02T10:24:00.000-04:00

Well, the weather may or may not end up being nasty, but either way, we've got one hell of a renewal of the Oaks on our hands! Let's dive right into it..

1.) GOLDEN DOC A (Barry Abrams/Kent Desormeaux) 12-1
CA-bred chestnut has gotten very good since coming off the turf out west. In four starts, she's won the G1 Las Virgenes and run narrow seconds in the G2 Santa Ynez, G1 Santa Anita Oaks and G2 Beaumont. She doesn't have to face Ariege today, the filly that's knocked her off the last two times, and her stretch running ways should translate well to the nine-furlong test she meets. She's of course best if she has some pace to run at, which is a concern in here, as there isn't a ton of speed signed on, but she closed into a slow pace in the SA Oaks, and showed in the Beaumont that she doesn't have to come from the clouds. Main concern is whether or not she'll adapt to dirt, but according to astute DRF clocker Mike Welsch, her 4/23 blowout at CD was, if I may paraphrase, pretty freaking sweet. She apparently breezed in :59 without much urging, and galloped out in under 1:12, outworking Bsharpsonata in company. Beyer-wise, she stacks up if you key off the Las Virgenes win (94 BSF), and her Beaumont TG number (2 1/4) is competitive. Bejarano sticks with Country Star, which is understandable, considering the connections. The rail draw would be more of a concern if there was an abundance of speed to her outside, and there isn't. Very attractive.

2.) ABSOLUTELY CINDY (Keith Kinmon/Julien Leparoux) 20-1
Came out of nowhere in more ways than one to score against boys in the Battaglia Memorial three back, closing from 20 lengths behind to light up the board at nearly 20-1. She then had an excuse in the G1 Ashland, being marooned behind a crawl of a pace, and her G3 Appalachian was slightly better, as she had to deal with a slow clip again, but was beaten only 3 1/4. There are two issues with her in this race: One, as we've seen, she has no early speed, and needs a wild pace to do her best running, and there just isn't a bunch of speed in here. Two, she's only run once on dirt, and it was a trouncing at the hands of Indian Blessing and Proud Spell in the G3 Silverbulletday. In her defense, she likely was pushed too hard early in that race. Still, she would have to improve on her Battaglia figures (89 BSF, 4 1/2 TG) to factor in this, and on dirt, behind a pedestrian pace, it doesn't seem very likely.

3.) AWESOME CHIC (Rafael Ramos/Robby Albarado) 20-1
Daughter of Awesome Again has yet to be out of the trifecta in five attempts, and merits a shot at this after her impressive triumph in the G3 Florida Oaks last out. She tracked an above-average pace and ran away by 4 1/2 at 13-1, although one could certainly question what she beat in the race. Figure makers differ on that effort, as Beyer's guys gave her a 92, but Jerry Brown only scored it a 6 1/4, way short of what it'd take to compete in this Oaks. In her corner is the ability to lay close to what should be a fairly easy pace, and she's bred to go this far. Not much foundation in her with only one two-turn race, but Ramos has given her a lot of nice, easy six-furlong breezes in preparation for this longer test. Gets a serious class challenge, and I wouldn't recommend using her on top, but it wouldn't be shock to see her hang on for a piece.

4.) ELUSIVE LADY (John Kimmel/Eibar Coa) 30-1
Van Nistelrooy gray has rebounded well from the G2 Old Hat disaster with a second to the filly on her inside in the Florida Oaks and a third in the G2 Comely despite being rushed up on a fast pace. With that said, she appears to have not developed a step from two to three, and her come home times around two turns have been below par. Though she will have the advantage of being forwardly placed, more distance doesn't look like what this filly is asking for. Siding against her in this spot.

5.) RAISERRA (Ray Tracy/Jamie Theriot) 50-1
This one certainly perked up a bit in her second start off the layoff, stretching out to two turns, finishing a big second at 11-1 in the Instant Racing at OP (91 BSF, 5 TG), and love the confident runback by Tracy after two big works with the blinkers off. Don't like that her only win came against terribly overmatched maidens at Prairie Meadows. However, she's got the speed to matter early, and although the extra furlong is a question, she doesn't need to move forward too much more to factor late. At that grossly overlaid morning line, she's a great play, and even if the win may be slightly out of her reach, she's got a good chance to crack the trifecta with a clean trip.

6.) COUNTRY STAR (Bobby Frankel/Rafael Bejarano) 4-1
Stonerside homebred did very little wrong as a two-year-old, scoring a pair of G1 wins. Came back after the winter off with a rather dull fifth in the G1 Ashland, but in her defense, she was stuck behind a crawling pace that day, and although there isn't a ton of speed signed on today, the fractions should at least be swifter than they were at KEE. Main issue is that she's yet to run spectacularly fast on figures (93 BSF, 5 TG is her high), and we'll have to see how well she runs on dirt, though her pops certainly liked it. Faces the sternest test of her life in here, and with speed to her inside and outside, who's to say how clean she'll get away from the gate? She definitely merits a shot, but with the connections, she'll be overbet. Probably best used in savers only.

7.) LITTLE BELLE (Kiaran McLaughlin/Alan Garcia) 8-1
A.P. Indy bay ran her winning streak to three with her game comeback triumph at 16-1 in the Ashland, and although she benefitted from setting a slow pace that day, she doesn't need the lead. Still think she's gonna find it tougher to deal with Proud Spell and Bsharpsonata on dirt, not to mention Golden Doc A and Pure Clan as well. All signs are that she's doing well though, and her 4/25 breeze should be respected. Being by the Belmont-winning sire out of a Mr. Prospector mare bodes well for her getting that extra sixteenth, and she could indeed turn out to be a good one, but just think the challenge will be significantly tougher in here. Underneath.

8.) PROUD SPELL (Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez) 7-2
Odds will be substantially shorter with the defection of stablemate Eight Belles, but this filly looks like the deserving favorite with her two big races at FG and having never been out of the trifecta in seven starts. Definitely willing to chalk the Ashland flop up to the polytrack and the pace, as she's not the type to flatten out in the stretch like that. She's got great tactical speed and figure-wise, she's the horse to beat. Slightly concerned that 4/27 workout was a little too quick, and she's gotta navigate another sixteenth today, but she's certainly got my respect.

9.) A TO THE CROFT (Ken McPeek/Calvin Borel) 20-1
Appeared on the verge of good things with seconds in three straight graded stakes last summer and fall, but since getting beaten a pole in the BC Juvy Fillies, she's been a bit disappointing. She finished third twice as the heavy chalk this spring, making her difficult to like against this tough field of girls. Also seems to be best when she's got a lot of pace to close into, and not sure that'll be the case today. Pass.

10.) BSHARPSONATA (Tim Salzman/Eric Camacho) 6-1
Hard to fault 6-for-10 Pulpit filly for loss last out, as she still ran her race and was barely outgamed. In fact, she seems to run her race no matter what, and it carried her to four straight stakes wins over the fall and winter. The post is somewhat of a concern, but she's got enough speed to not be at the mercy of others. Tough to go against a filly that wins so darn much, but her figures have been slightly below what it would take to win this. She regularly runs BSF's in the low 90's and TG's around 4, and she'd likely need a mid-to-high 90 BSF and around a 2 TG to take the top prize. Banking against that happening, especially considering she got outworked by the rail filly last week.

11.) PURE CLAN (Bob Holthus/Edgar Prado) 6-1
New IEAH purchase has progressed very nicely despite suffering the first two losses of her career this season, and she gets a break from the rear end of Eight Belles today. Love her versatility, which tells me the post won't be too much of an issue, and we already know she's got few problems on this track, although to be fair, she beat suspect competition in her CD stakes wins. Third off the layoff isn't one of my favorite angles, but in this case, it may actually fit. She's yet to go backward figure-wise, and although she hasn't faced a field this good, she's held her own at OP and in big fields in the past. The narrow pick.

12.) EIGHT BELLES (Larry Jones/Ramon Dominguez) 5-2
SCRATCHED FOR DERBY

SELECTIONS
#1 GOLDEN DOC A - Fits on TG figures, outworked the 'Bsharp' locally
#11 PURE CLAN - Versatile filly could be ready to make "the leap"
#8 PROUD SPELL - Tough not to like, but could be underlaid with EB scratch
#6 COUNTRY STAR - Scary on the switch to dirt, but will also be underlaid
LONGSHOT/SUPER ADD: #5 RASIERRA

WET TRACK QUICK HITS
MOVES UP ON WET TRACK: PROUD SPELL
MOVES DOWN ON WET TRACK: GOLDEN DOC A, COUNTRY STAR
WORTH A SECOND LOOK ON WET TRACK: ELUSIVE LADY, RASIERRA, A TO THE CROFT, AWESOME CHIC, LITTLE BELLE, ABSOLUTELY CINDY

Rounding out the field

2008-05-02T05:42:00.000-04:00

DENIS OF CORK (21-1)
Scares the shit outta me. He's the kind of horse I want to take a stand against, considering that his only good race resulted from a DREAM TRIP in the Southwest. His connections couldn't have planned a better go of it that day. With that being said, he could indeed be quite the talented colt, and being so lightly-raced, who's to say that he's not developed to the point where he's capable of a big effort with tougher circumstances. His work was very good, and he's got the chance to drop back and make one run if he can avoid getting squeezed by the speed to his outside. Still, he's not the biggest colt, he's not bred great for 10 furlongs, and anyone knocking Big Brown for lack of experience should also be against this colt. I'll be using him defensively.

COWBOY CAL (32-1)
SPEED horse that doesn't have the SPEED to keep up with the other SPEED (I think it was called, "The Bus That Couldn't Slow Down"). He's bound to be an underlay because of Pletcher, and Giant's Causeways are all overrated, but some are less so on grass. This is one of them.

RECAPTURETHEGLORY (30-1)
Similar to Cowboy Cal, except this one's jockey probably won't settle for taking back once he realizes his mount can't go with the other speed. Way out of his element in here, but will take a decent amount of money because of his silly 102 BSF for the IL Derby.

GAYEGO (20-1)
Didn't love him before the draw, now I don't like him at all. His AR Derby was gutsy, but it was on what I think was a speed-favoring track. He supposedly didn't have a great week of training either, and he's bred to stop two furlongs ago. Passed on him last time and was wrong, but hopefully he doesn't fool me twice.

BIG BROWN (3-1)
Ah.. What to do with Mr. Brown? Pros: Fastest three-year-old in the country (seems significant), has the ability to run a fast pace and keep on going, doesn't face the danger of getting squeezed at the break, has Dutrow and Desormeaux (though consider the sources) calling him the greatest thing since sliced bread, has looked great all week at Churchill, pedigree is just fine thanks to Nureyev influence. Cons: Isn't nearly as professional as Curlin was last year, and he loads about 15 feet from the crowd, then they'll spring the latch right after he's in, will have to work awfully hard to get into a good position, and he may have too much speed for his own good, don't care which way Dutrow spins it, that lugging in and out in Hallandale was a bad sign, generally "greenly" in the comment line of final Derby prep isn't a positive thing. Definitely can win this, and I'll be including him, but I'd rather take either of the other two favorites at expected odds.

Continued glance

2008-05-02T05:24:00.000-04:00

Z HUMOR (55-1)
Just not one I can get into, except maybe if the track is sloppy. His big Beyers look phony, and his TG high (5) wouldn't get him close. Has reportedly looked good in the mornings, but that can only mean so much.

SMOOTH AIR (29-1)
The brief infection is obviously a concern, but you know what isn't? The fact that he got beaten 5 by Big Brown. Honestly, who would've done much better that day? His figures for the race (98 BSF, -3/4 TG) make him a contender in this, and he's certainly a fighter. I'm not too concerned about his pedigree, moreso of his size and conditioning with the missed training. Still using him, though more sparingly than I would've before the sickness.

BOB BLACK JACK (20-1)
Reminds the hell outta me of Sinister Minister. One-gear speed horse who will get overbet because of a big figure (109 BSF a few back). With the blinkers on especially, I think any dreams of him taking back are delusional. To his advantage, he didn't draw near any other speed, so he at least should be unmolested for the first furlong or so, but it's lights out for him come the second turn.

MONBA (18-1)
Another one I've gone back and forth on a few times, because although he's slow, he looks like the one-paced stayer that can often pick up a piece. But considering that he's got one terrible race and a handful of OK ones, I can't use him anywhere except the very bottom of exotics.

ADRIANO (35-1)
He's a nutcase with a turfy stride who didn't work all that well in his last try over the Churchill dirt. Prado's decision to ride is more an indictment of Tale of Ekati and Monba than it is a ringing endorsement of this colt. Distance shouldn't be a problem, but everything else should.

More quick thoughts

2008-05-02T05:12:00.000-04:00

Z FORTUNE (17-1)
If you toss his Rebel flop, he's got no bad races on the resume, and his Arky Derby was sensational, even if the figure is a little high. He got a -3/4 from the TG guys for the effort, and his two races in Louisiana were fine. Has the perfect midpack running style for this, and has reportedly had a good week of training. On my ticket.

BIG TRUCK (56-1)
Seems like a quality horse, but his only big race was a perfect trip win over the mediocre Atoned in the Tampa Bay Derby. Just can't see him factoring.

VISIONAIRE (38-1)
Definitely a horse I keep going back and forth on. On one hand, I think his Gotham figure was phony, and I think he's bred to stop after a mile. On the other hand, he's a consistent closer and his first few races were very impressive. I can't use him on top, but I'd be afraid to leave him out of the trifecta entirely.

PYRO (7-1)
Seems more and more like the best value of the big three, considering that I put little stock into the Blue Grass flop and that he's been training well since. His figures in Louisiana were slow, but the Risen Star run was class personified. The only thing that precludes me from making him my solid top pick is my worry that his kick could be dulled a bit going 10 furlongs. He's still a must use.

COLONEL JOHN (5-1)
If people bet solely on figures, he'd be around 20-1, and I'd love him. Unfortunately, those wily handicappers have discovered that synthetic numbers mean little, and this colt's steam is way high following his :57.61 blowout on Sunday. Can't fault anybody for trying to beat him, but I definitely will be including him, and think that he and Pyro are the two horses to beat, considering draw and shape of the race.

Quick thoughts

2008-05-01T03:45:00.000-04:00

In four parts, to be followed by full previews tomorrow night and Friday. Next to every horse is the price I expect them to go off at, NOT the price from the morning line, which I think was messily done by Battaglia. Granted, I know nothing about figuring in takeout, so take what I say with a grain of salt, but I do have a history at guessing a horse's odds better than guessing how they're gonna run.

COOL COAL MAN (24-1)
This was my outsider horse a few weeks ago, and I'm not totally off the bandwagon. He's learned to relax and adapt to pace, and his Blue Grass is a total throwout. The rail draw isn't ideal, but he's done it before in a big field, so I don't think he'll be overwhelmed. He probably isn't quite fast enough to win, but I'll be using him in any trifecta wagers.

TALE OF EKATI (22-1)
Should carve out a decent trip from the inside, and he's certainly got the talent to matter, but I wonder about whether or not he wants to go this far. The Wood seems like the kind of race that would really tax a horse, and Zito said it knocked out War Pass (before he came up injured) a bit. Wouldn't toss him completely, but won't be using him on top.

ANAK NAKAL (76-1)
Actually think he ran a better race in the Wood than Court Vision did, and he'll be three times the price of that one, so that makes him intriguing, but his other two races this year were bad without excuses. Can't see myself including him.

COURT VISION (25-1)
I don't really care how well he's worked in blinkers, he had everything his own way in the Wood and still was an inconsequential third. He does have the pedigree for this and is lightly-raced, so he could run a new career best, but I can't see the blinkers being the cure for all that ails him. A minor piece is possible.

EIGHT BELLES (13-1)
Has the figures and the running style, and I don't buy that this is some huge step up in class. That being said, she's stretching out an extra 3/16 and her pedigree doesn't scream mile-and-a-quarter. Still, chucking her altogether is a bad idea, as she's probably one of the five best horses in the race based purely on talent.

All set..

2008-04-30T23:08:00.000-04:00

Kentucky Derby (G1)

$2,000,000, 1 1/4 miles, 3 yo, Churchill Downs, May 3

1. Cool Coal Man, Julien Leparoux 20-1
2. Tale of Ekati, Eibar Coa 15-1
3. Anak Nakal, Rafael Bejarano 30-1
4. Court Vision, Garret Gomez 20-1
5. Eight Belles, Gabriel Saez 20-1
6. Z Fortune, Robby Albarado 15-1
7. Big Truck, Javier Castellano 50-1
8. Visionaire, Jose Lezcano 20-1
9. Pyro, Shaun Bridgmohan 6-1
10. Colonel John, Corey Nakatani 4-1
11. Z Humor, Rene Douglas 30-1
12. Smooth Air, Manoel Cruz 20-1
13. Bob Black Jack, Richard Migliore 20-1
14. Monba, Ramon Dominguez 15-1
15. Adriano, Edgar Prado 30-1
16. Denis of Cork, Calvin Borel 20-1
17. Cowboy Cal, John Velazquez 20-1
18. Recapturetheglory, E. T. Baird 20-1
19. Gayego, Mike Smith 15-1
20. Big Brown, Kent Desormeaux 3-1

Back with plenty of thoughts once the PP's are released and after the Celtics/Hawks game, then more after the TG's come out sometime tomorrow. Also, a pretty significant development in terms of weather. Though I hate early weather discussion as much as anybody, we're less than two days away from the Oaks and less than three from the Derby, so it's become soemthing worth talking about. Oaks Day legitimately might be a washout, Derby day should be fine.. Stay tuned..

Order of draw

2008-04-30T14:58:00.000-04:00

In the process of writing up a preview for the Oaks, but here are the pill draws for the Derby. Remember, of course, that this doesn't equal post position, rather it is the order in which they will select their own post position. Very relevant nonetheless.

Visionaire
Big Truck
Colonel John
Z Fortune
Pyro
Eight Belles
Anak Nakal
Court Vision
Z Humor
Monba
Smooth Air
Adriano
Bob Black Jack
Denis of Cork
Cowboy Cal
Big Brown
Tale of Ekati
Cool Coal Man
Recapturetheglory
Gayego

Gayego looks like a total toss now, and I'm not encouraged by Cool Coal Man's draw either. Big Brown will have his work cut out for him, and if there was any doubt before, we now know that Eight Belles will be in the Derby. Glad to see Colonel John, Z Fortune and Pyro, three horses I'm planning on using, draw early, although with their styles, not sure it matters a whole lot. More after the actual draw (slated to be at 5-6 p.m. EST on ESPN, but there's nothing on my Guide about it, and the PTI guys said they'd be back today)..

Contender Profile: Z Fortune

2008-04-29T03:41:00.000-04:00

Okay, last one for the night, must get some sleep, as I'm still fuming over the Celtics' loss, and Oaks Day draws tomorrow!

Future Odds: 54/1
Owner: Zayat Stables LLC
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen

Another future price that looks mighty tasty after the AR Derby, with this Siphon gray running a better race than Gayego in finishing second by three-quarters of a length. NY-bred colt reeled off three straight to start his career, then was hung four wide around both turns in the Risen Star and proved no match for Pyro, who was awesome that day. No one's quite sure what happened in the Rebel, but to his credit, that race represents his only significant misstep, and he bounced back in a big way at Oaklawn. He was three wide around both turns and was the only horse to make up significant ground on the frontrunners before flattening out a bit late. His TG figure for the AR Derby was big (-3/4). He's got the right style for the Derby, with enough tactical speed to allow him not to fall far out of it, but not too much to where he'll be caught on a hot pace. He's got sneaky distance breeding too, and like the way Asmussen has handled him since the OP race, with two easy half-mile breezes. Certainly should be fit enough, and barring any wiseguy money dumping, he'll be around 20/1. Will be using in exacta wagers.

Contender Profile: Monba

2008-04-29T03:23:00.000-04:00

Future Odds: 14/1 (All other 3-year-olds)
Owner: Starlight, Lucarelli and Saylor
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher

Gray colt had some early buzz after a pair of two-year-old wins and a closing fourth in the Cash Call Futurity, but he stunk it up in the Fountain of Youth before bouncing back to score in the Blue Grass. Prado though, gets off of him to ride Adriano on Saturday, which isn't a good sign, considering that he won on this colt three weeks after he won on Adriano, which means he must really not have been wowed with Monba. Gamely scored at KEE despite being three wide around both turns, and earned a solid, if unspectacular TG fig (2 3/4) for the effort. Still, a non-effort over dirt and a win over polytrack with one mediocre workout since doesn't seem like the recipe for a Derby winner. On the plus side, he has enough tactical speed to keep him close, he does own a local win and he gets good stamina influence from his dam side, but he just doesn't seem all that fast. Would use sparingly if he were to climb above 40/1.

Contender Profile: Z Humor

2008-04-29T03:08:00.000-04:00

Future Odds: 14/1 (All other 3-year-olds)
Owner: Zayat Stables LLC
Trainer: William I. Mott

Just a horse I can't talk myself into liking. He has three somewhat competitive races on his resume, the Champagne third (97 BSF, 5 TG), the Delta Jackpot dead heat win (96 BSF, 5 TG) and the IL Derby third (94 BSF, 5 TG). I'm of the mind that all three of those races were rated too highly, and there just isn't anything, save for a sloppy track, that would make him stick out. Not much of a "profile", I know, but if you can think of a reason to like him, I'm all ears.

Contender Profile: Denis of Cork

2008-04-29T02:55:00.000-04:00

As you can see, I've lost any semblance of order in doing these things. Just trying to get all of my thoughts out there before the draw.

Future Odds: 26/1
Owner: Mr. and Mrs. William K. Warren, Jr.
Trainer: David M. Carroll

Harlan's Holiday bay took three in a row before sputtering home fifth in the IL Derby, but to many (including your humble narrator), that race is pretty much a toss. He had to take back wide behind a soft pace on a track that favored speed and the rail, if not as starkly as many have reported. Main issue with this colt is that his big race, the G3 Southwest win (96 BSF, 1/4 TG) was aided by a DREAM setup. His internal fractions for the race behind dying speed were :24.11, :48.19, 1:12.30, 1:24.75, 1:37.89. It doesn't get much sweeter than that in a one-turn mile. By contrast, Sierra Sunset, whom Denis of Cork beat by 2 1/4, ran significantly quicker early splits of :23.37, :46.15 and 1:11.15. It's worth mentioning though, that the third-place horse, who had a similar trip to Denis of Cork, returned to score in the WinStar Derby. Worked beautifully the last two weeks, and he certainly has done nothing wrong, but it's just the uncertainty over how good the Southwest really was that's bugging me. He also is bred decently, but not exceedingly well, for a mile-and-a-quarter. My usage of him would probably depend on his odds. At 30/1 or better, he's definitely worth including, but in the 20/1-24/1 range, he begins to look like an underlay. With that said, he probably has one of the higher ceilings in this Derby field, so it wouldn't be a total shock to see him draped in roses. I'll be using him, but mostly on the bottom of my wagers.

Contender Profile: Gayego

2008-04-29T00:31:00.000-04:00

Future Odds: 57/1
Owner: Cubanacan Stables
Trainer: Paulo H. Lobo

Kudos to any who snagged this gorgeous son of Gilded Time at that number in the final future wager, as he'll likely be one-fourth that at post time Saturday. Yet to be out of the exacta in five starts, and scored a game victory in the AR Derby last out, earning big figures (103 BSF, -1/4 TG) across the board. Seems to have answered the call in what was his first start on dirt and only second around two turns, but something about that race was a little fishy. The top four all ran career bests figure-wise (Gayego 103, Z Fortune 102, Tres Borrachos 95, Indian Sun 92), so that alone gives cause for pause, but the track at Oaklawn appeared to favor speed more as the day wore on. It even LOOKED difficult for closers; if one checks the replay, huge chunks of dirt are flying back from the speed horses. Might not be all that much of a coincidence that Z Fortune and Indian Sun -- the only two horses that did any closing -- were wide and in the clear for significant parts of the race. Gayego did show the ability in his N1X second to come from off the pace, but he's got a high cruising speed and should be forwardly placed. That may not be as much of a problem now as it was before War Pass declared, but the pace still should be quick enough. Based on figures, however inflated they may be, he fits, so at 20/1 or so, he'd probably be worth an inclusion, but it's unlikely he gets that high. Bred to go short, by sprinting influence Gilded Time, out of a mare from another sprinting influence, Lost Code. He's talented enough to hold on for a piece, so if he floats up towards the aforementioned number, he's worth including in smaller tickets, but I'm against him otherwise.

Contender Profile: Tale of Ekati

2008-04-28T21:58:00.000-04:00

"Derby Status" and "Graded Earnings" are irrelevant at this point, considering that I'll only be examining horses that will be in the gate on Saturday. On we go.

Future Odds: 18/1
Owner: Charles E. Fipke
Trainers: Barclay Tagg

The exact kind of horse where Beyer users and Thorograph users will disagree. Beyer users will say that his last (93 BSF) was to be expected, considering his previous figs (84, 82, 94, 95, 89). Thorograph heads, however, will say that his last (1/2 TG) was HUGE, considering his previous figs (5 1/2, 5 1/2, 5, 5, 5). I lean towards Jerry Brown's minions on this one, as I think it was quite the effort. While War Pass ran fast all the way around the track, Tale of Ekati got to live with a more manageable first quarter (:23.52), but it was three wide around a turn on a slow track, so adjust accordingly. Then, with Giant Moon and Texas Wildcatter moving early to his inside, Prado did the same thing, forcing Tale of Ekati to run his second quarter in :22.88 for a half in :46.40, and again, adjust accordingly with the glib surface. After rabbit Inner Light spit the bit, instead of sputtering behind a clear War Pass, Tale of Ekati kept to work, going three wide again, and eventually wearing down the gutsy frontrunner, finishing up in an understandably slow :40.44 for his last three furlongs. An impressive run. That had to be an extremely taxing effort, though to his credit, he's breezed twice since the race, including a snappy minute-and-change at KEE last Wednesday. Like the way he's been brought along distance-wise. Get the feeling that this dude is best suited to nine furlongs and under, although his second dam Maplejinsky won the Alabama, and produced champion filly Sky Beauty and was the second dam to Pleasant Home and the ill-fated Pine Island. Not too thrilled that Prado is riding fringe candidate Adriano instead of here, and one needs to expect some kind of effect off that last race. Wouldn't recommend him for the win or exacta, but would stop shy of excluding him entirely.

Contender Profile: Pyro

2008-04-24T20:30:00.000-04:00

Now that all of the preps are completed and all of the figures are in, we're gonna get to the meat and potatoes of the field, and examine each horse in order of graded earnings. Of all Derby horses, Pyro has probably gotten the most unwarranted adulation and unwarranted grief. He ran a few big races at two and did what he had to do at Fair Grounds, but then, (cue shock) ran a stinker on polytrack. There are no overwhelming positives or negatives to Pyro, but what he has done, save for his Blue Grass, has run about as fast and been about as consistent as anyone in the field. And now he'll be 7-1+, rather than the 9/2 he would've been had he won the Blue Grass.

Derby Status: Going
Graded Earnings: $1,020,000
Future Odds: 5/1
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC
Trainers: Steven M. Asmussen

Awesome, I've been dying to get to this horse. Why I like Pyro: His Louisiana races were way better than they looked, and after running a stupid fast final 5/16 (approximately :28.58, almost unheard of for a dirt horse) in the Risen Star, Bridgmo decided to take him closer to the pace in the La. Derby and see what he could do. Probably the most significant development of Pyro's career in terms of his shot in the Derby. He still finished in a very respectable :30.37. We had a feeling Pyro possessed some kinda tactical speed, but it wasn't until then that he showed the ability to be something other than a one-run closer. Key for the Derby of course, since now that War Pass won't be going, the pace may not be quite as quick. Hopefully Bridgmohan and the Ass Man don't listen to the hype and have this horse 10th or 11th rather than 17th or 18th down the backstretch. Why I don't like Pyro: He's taking too much money based on two two-year-old figure that I think were rather bogus. The Champagne number came up too fast -- the first three finishers only duplicated that form in other questionably figured races, in my opinion -- and though I was impressed by his BC Juvy effort, it seems a little high as well. His pedigree doesn't scream ten furlongs, but he's a strong finisher who figures to hit the board. I'm trying to beat all three favorites on top, but he's obviously one of the ones and has to be used.

Final Earnings Tally

2008-04-23T04:23:00.000-04:00

Assuming no one tries the elusive Withers-Derby double.

1. PYRO $1,020,000
PROUD SPELL - UNLIKELY, BUT NOT RULED OUT $880,000
2. TALE OF EKATI $738,000
3. COLONEL JOHN $720,000
4. GAYEGO $640,000
5. BIG BROWN $600,000
6. Z HUMOR $579,000
7. MONBA $515.000
8. COURT VISION $331.872
9. Z FORTUNE $329,000
10. ADRIANO $310,000
11. RECAPTURETHEGLORY $300,000
12. SMOOTH AIR $290,000
13. COOL COAL MAN $212,767
14. ANAK NAKAL $212,216
EIGHT BELLES - ON THE FENCE $210,000
15. COWBOY CAL $207,660
BEHINDATTHEBAR - UNLIKELY, BUT NOT RULED OUT $204,500
16. VISIONAIRE $202,500
17. BIG TRUCK $194,500
18. BOB BLACK JACK $180,000
19. DENIS OF CORK $165,000
20. HALO NAJIB $157.996

21. INDIAN SUN $154,000
22. TOMCITO $151,292
23. MY PAL CHARLIE $150,000
24. HEY BYRN $140,000

There you haves it. As of now, Halo Najib is the last one in, but if either Eight Belles or Behindatthebar go, he's out, and if both go, that shows Denis of Cork the door. Probably one or neither will go though, so Dave Carroll's charge should be safe. Personally, I'd like to see a defection or two to get Indian Sun in, as he's a horse that I think could crack the super at a humongous price. By the way, why does Blogger flag "humongous" for spell check? I'm pretty sure that's a real word.

There's definitely some ambiguity on this side over whether ten-cent supers will be available on the Derby. No official word that I can find, and I've heard claims on both ends about it. It's of import to me, because as a broke ass college student, this will likely be the difference between whether I attack the tri or take a shot at the super next Saturday.

Lexington preview

2008-04-18T16:18:00.000-04:00

Last call! Here's who needs what for Derby..

First Place: Just about everybody other than Salute the Sarge. Atoned is the only one who MIGHT be straight with a second.

Wide open Lexy, folks, as a case can be made for nearly every horse in the race.

1.) ATONED (Pletcher/Prado) 3-1: Dogwood colt ran huge in first soph start after mediocre baby season, finishing narrow second in Tampa Derby despite being three- and five-wide on turns. Prado and Velazquez switch mounts, with Johnny climbing aboard Riley Tucker. Son of Repent has a bit of hang to him, but in fairness, he's had excuses for his last three runner-up finishes. Had no shot behind crawl at HAW, still earned figure of 93 for fourth. TG number (5 3/4) wasn't as impressive, but his TAM number (2 1/4) towers over what most in here can run. Tad concerned he ran too well in that one, and rail draw isn't often benefit at KEE, especially with three speeds to his outside. Nevertheless, he fits on figures, and any kind of rebound effort puts him squarely in contention for the win. Look elsewhere for value though.

2.) SALUTE THE SARGE (Guillot/Baze) 4-1: Forest Wildcat bay is already in based on earnings and trainer seems gunshy about Derby to say the least, but the Run for the Roses, she be a seductress. Done about nothing wrong in career save for no-chance BC Juvy try, and returned in style 3/29 with 1 3/4-length triumph in $78,000 San Miguel at SA. Earned decent enough figures (89 BSF, 5 1/2 TG) for that effort, but that was his first run since October and there are legitimate questions (by Guillot too) about his two-turn ability. Also seems the type to not want to be far back, and with two dead speed horses to his outside and a closer to his inside, Baze might have to go early. M/L price is underlay any way you look at it. Have to go elsewhere.

3.) SAMBA ROOSTER (Baffert/Gomez) 8-1: Lone runner not TC nominated has set some mighty quick fractions in his brief racing life, including a ridiculous :22 2/5, :44, 1:08 4/5 clip two back, when he understandably was a well-beaten third. Last out got a relative break (:23 4/5, :46 1/5, 1:10 2/5) on front end and turned it into big-figure (94 BSF, 3 TG) second in GP N1X. Problem is he was quite one-dimensional for Wolfson; that likely won't change with arrival in this barn, and there's one who's just as quick to his outside, not to mention a likely sprinter on the left as well. Never been two turns and save for sealed track romp 2/8, he's been backing up at the end of every race. Songandaprayer influence doesn't assuage distance concerns. Seems unlikely.

4.) ST. JOE (Miller/Mena) 8-1: Can't fault connections for trying here, as only two wins and best races of his career have come over this surface, including an MSW victory over Racecar Rhapsody last fall (though that one was severely compromised by the break). Comes into this off big-time wire job at 14-1 and perhaps the removal of blinkers has stopped him from being a quitter when he doesn't get his way. Setting those fractions (:22 2/5, :44 4/5) at KEE and winning sure isn't easy, so credit where credit is due, but he faces some other major speed to his inside and his lone two-turn try was uninspiring. Could run them off their feet, but unless Samba Rooster scratches, that probably won't happen.

5.) RACECAR RHAPSODY (McPeek/Albarado) 9-2: Second start off the layoff for this Tale of the Cat colt, and though his Lane's End fourth was a bit disappointing, he likely needed the start and ran on a dead rail for much of the race. Good news for McPeek as far as today goes is that blinkers didn't put too much speed into him, so he should be able to take back off a hot pace and make his one run. Take issue with that high Jackpot figure (93 BSF), as not many out of there have come back to duplicate it, and his TG figures are nothing spectacular (high of 5, only 6 1/2 last time). Still, this colt proved emphatically last fall that he can handle the tires, and he should be ready to improve off the break. M/L price a little too short to take, but he's an obvious contender.

6.) FELON (Maker/Leparoux) 20-1: First two efforts were dull, but Stephen Got Even bay exploded with a 6 1/2-length romp at TP last out, earning modest BSF of 80 but big TG of 2 1/2 for his four- and three-wide trip. The way he's bred, the extra sixteenth certainly won't bother him, and can't find anything wrong with :59 1/5 training facility breeze in company with Maker trainee Mr. Champ, who's an outsider in the G3 Bill Hartack at nine furlongs at HAW Saturday. Certainly gets the acid test, but wouldn't make him an automatic toss.

7.) BEHINDATTHEBAR (Pletcher/Flores) 12-1: Won off without much asking in SA N1X last out, though he got to drifting in, which he's done before. Took his lumps when fifth at 5/2 in El Camino Real, but may be better for it. Shipped across country since allowance win and has local half-mile in tow. Flores in town for the ride a good sign, and this colt appears to have the tactical speed to lay off a hot pace. Not quite sure what he beat last time out, but can say that for a few of these coming off big wins. Might be getting good at the right time.

8.) TOMCITO (Zanelli/Chavez) 6-1: Peruvian import was actually bred in Kentucky, and comes back home for final try at Derby earnings. Tough to get much of a read on Fla. Derby third. It was his first start in 4+ months and he earned good figures (85 BSF, 3 TG) for the effort, but the race set up perfectly for him and all he did was pass dead horses. Likely needed the race, but while those "G1" tags from his Peru races stick out, the actual level of competition he faced is highly questionable. Nonetheless, he figures to improve second off the break and he should get the perfect setup once again. Not in love with him at 6/1, but wouldn't totally leave off any serious ticket.

9.) BIG GLEN (Brothers/Douglas) 12-1: Cactus Ridge chestnut has had quite the eventful career, with slow starts and rough trips littered throughout his PP's. Three back though, he ran a big one to score in the $50,000 WEBN at TP, closing four-wide behind modest fractions to score by 1 1/4. May have regressed a bit and encountered trouble in the Battaglia Memorial, but bounced back with a workmanlike score in the Rushaway. Think he's better off dropping back and making one run, which he should get to do in this field. Could offer some value.

10.) RILEY TUCKER (Mott/Velazquez) 12-1: Yet another Zayat purchase, this Harlan's Holiday colt has failed to reproduce the form that earned him a narrow second to Wicked Style in the Arl-Wash Futurity last summer. Really don't like that he failed at 3/5 in FG N1X two back. Blinkers could wake him back up, but they'll also put him closer to the lead, which may not be the place to be in this field. Contender on his best, but leaning elsewhere today.

11.) RED SANDY (Lukas/Theriot) 30-1: Figure-light colt appears to be the lone outsider in competitive field, but Lukas gets the benefit of finding speedy field for this dead closer. Think he's too slow at this point to contend for the top spot, but wouldn't be totally floored if he cracked the super at a big number.

Must Use: #1 ATONED (3-1), #5 RACECAR RHAPSODY (9-2), #8 TOMCITO (6-1)
Value Inclusions: #6 FELON (20-1), BEHINDATTHEBAR (12-1), #9 BIG GLEN (12-1)
Not Using: #2 SALUTE THE SARGE (4-1), #3 SAMBA ROOSTER (8-1), #4 ST. JOE (8-1), #10 RILEY TUCKER (12-1)
Superfecta Booster: #11 RED SANDY (30-1)

Who you should be rooting for

2008-04-17T04:05:00.000-04:00

The weeks leading up to the Derby can be a very befuddling time for any racing fan.. Attempting to form early notions of who will be what price, as well as how the race will be run, and coming up with a Derby strategy are difficult things to do, especially for those of us with overactive imaginations. One either tries to distract oneself from the loudening Derby chatter with leisure activities, or one might create a blog where one pretends that other people care what one thinks. Choosing who to wager on is overwhelming enough, but we also must eventually decide what horses to pull for as fans. Nearly all racing fans, regardless of whether they bet on them or not, loved watching the relatively unknown connections of Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex score Triple Crown wins, and there's definitely that part of us which loves to see the proverbial little guy top the Sheikhs and Whitneys and Overbrooks. But there are other motivations for choosing a horse to cheer on, and to help eighty-six any extra indecision clouding your brain, I've broken down who you should root across the wire in the Derby based on what's important to you.

If you, like many of us do, want to see a Triple Crown winner, Big Brown's your guy. Not to say there are no other possible TC winners this year, because in a crop this bad, a horse only has to have a good five weeks, but from a talent standpoint, no runner appears to have the potential to dominate the others like Big Brown does. Questions abound regarding his fitness, maturity and fragility, but if he can avoid any pitfalls, he's the horse to end the now 30-year drought.

Hate polytrack? Latch on to Pyro or Cool Coal Man. It truly would drive a stake through the collective hearts of the polytrack backers for them to see a horse run ninth or tenth in a polytrack prep, work hard to convince people that the problem was the horses and not the track, then see one of said horses come back to win the freaking Derby.

Love polytrack? Adriano proving that his Lane's End wasn't a surface-induced fluke would do well for your cause.

Like the little guy? Smooth Air should do nicely. First-time Derby connections all around, a tiny homebred colt with VERY modest breeding who's getting zero attention from the populace. It's made for TV.

Think auction prices mean nothing? Go for Tomcito. By $100,000 sire Street Cry, this colt brought back a paltry $7,500 as a yearling, but has earned $154,000+ and looms a prime contender in Saturday's sexy Lexy at KEE.

Other than that, we've got your obvious ones.. Girls, and guys who like American Idol, root for Eight Belles, West Coasters convinced of East Coast bias, you have Colonel John, Gayego and Bob Black Jack, people who like plodding nags get Court Vision, etc.. Aha, see how I slipped that in there?

• In some jockey jockeying, Edgar Prado, the most recent rider of Adriano, Tale of Ekati and Monba, has chosen Adriano as his Derby mount, citing allegiance to trainer Graham Motion. Personally, I'd say the fact that he waited this long to decide doesn't auger real well for any of the three, since I'd think that if he were sufficiently wowed by any of 'em in their respective final preps, he would've committed. I'm soon gonna put together a post about "on the fence" horses, and all three of these colts were going to be included as horses I can't decide on, but the more I think about it, the more I feel like tossing them all or using them sparingly. A crappy workout or draw would seal the deal on any one for me. Ramon Dominguez, by the way, has picked up the mount on Monba.

Contender Profile: Court Vision

2008-04-15T00:35:00.000-04:00

Derby Status: Going
Graded Earnings: $331,872
Future Odds: 19/1
Owner: IEAH Stables and WinStar Farm
Trainer: William I. Mott

Was more than mildly disgusted with his race in the Wood, as he had everything set up for him.. He sat miles off of a sickeningly fast pace, got a well-timed ride from Gomez, and still flattened out badly in the last furlong. His approximate internal splits for the race were :25.46, :48.90, 1:13.15, 1:38.90, 1:52.65.. Now I know the track played slowly, but for a dead closer who got away with those first three fractions, to run the last three-eighths in :39.50 is embarrassing.. Seems to me like all he ever does is pass dead horses, and he couldn't even do that in the Wood. One thing you can say for him is that he's not going to stop running (slowly), so the case can be made for a suck-up third or fourth, but at anything less than 30-1, he might not even be worth that kind of inclusion.

The stories that will eventually make your eyes/ears bleed

2008-04-14T20:18:00.000-04:00

As with any major sporting event, the Kentucky Derby is reported on ad nauseum, for weeks at a time, even when nothing (really) is going on. And since, as a whole, the mainstream media types don't take those of us who consume such inanity for a very discerning lot (and also since most of those media types are also too lazy or gutless to come up with original stories), there's a strong unspoken effort to fit all information regarding said event into a cozy set of narratives. I know I'm not breaking any ground here, but I felt compelled to bring this up, because with so-called "niche" sports, like tennis, golf and horse racing, the compressed and repetitive coverage can get borderline insulting. While there's certainly a large group of talented and informed racing writers, in the weeks leading up to the Derby, every clown who overheard something about Bellamy Road needing the lead or Curlin being inexperienced declares themselves qualified to opine on shit that the thoughtful racing fans have likely moved on from discussing a while ago.

So, with that inevitability looming, here are the Derby "angles" that will slowly beat the life out of you in the next 19 days. And yes, I realize that it seems like I'm just adding (in some small way) to the perpetuation of these overblown stories, but bear with me. I'm going to answer every storyline with a concise and obnoxiously matter-of-fact rebuttal, then vow not to give them any significant space on here again. That'll show those media types. The first three stories are already being done to death, the rest are ones that I think are bubbling under, not quite ripe enough yet for overwhelming repetition.

1.) Is Big Brown too inexperienced to win the Derby?
No. He might be too immature to win the Derby, but he's not too inexperienced. Curlin didn't lose last year because he only had three starts. He lost because the two horses that beat him had dream trips, and he didn't have enough speed to get a better trip. Big Brown is super fast, and barring a terrible draw, he'll work out a cleaner trip than Curlin did. If he loses, it'll be because he went batshit in the paddock or because he drifted out or because he got spent up front.

2.) What is Pyro's dud in the Blue Grass worth?
Nothing. Next.

3.) Can Colonel John run on dirt?
Who the fuck knows? Stop asking me this question. Cushion Track appears to be way more similar to dirt than Polytrack, Tiznow throws dirt runners and going synthetic to dirt is probably way easier than doing the opposite. I say he'll handle it fine, but what the hell do I know? It's a guess by anyone until April 28, circa when he'll work at Churchill. Must we focus on guesswork for the next two weeks?

4.) What to make of the Wood?
Not much. War Pass proved once again that he can't rate, making him a throwout for the Derby, Tale of Ekati ran well considering how Prado moved him into the teeth of a wicked pace. The fact remains that the time was slow though, and it's tough to endorse any of the Wood horses going ten panels when they finished their final prep in :40.86. Oh, Court Vision is a rat. That we learned.

5.) Are Pletcher's pair any good?
It would be hypocritical of me to definitively say no because they ran slowly on polytrack, considering that I'm tossing Pyro's race. They're not hopeless, but they're close.

6.) Is Z Fortune Asmussen's best shot?
No. Stop trying to be cute, indefinite future column writer.

7.) Gayego's Arkansas Derby proves that the west coast horses are for real.
I disagree. I think that Gayego rode a speed-biased track to an inflated-figure victory. Each California horse's chances must be dissected individually. For example: Colonel John has a big shot, Bob Black Jack has no shot. See, that was easy!

8.) This is a bad crop of three-year-olds.
Thanks a lot Woodward. Must have done a lot of research to come up with that earth-shattering paradigm.

9.) There will be a fast pace in the Derby.
See above.

10.) [Insert hopeless longshot] will win the Derby.
This is a Vic Zeigel special. Stop it. The only reason you're saying that is because if the horse manages to win the Derby and pay $80, you can crow about it for the next 20 years, and if the horse runs up the track, you can dismiss it by saying "oh well, I'm not a racing writer anyway!" It's a no-lose situation for the uninformed mainstream columnist.

There we go. Another obligatory rant out of the way, and now we can get back to the infinite many more interesting and relevant Derby conundrums.

Gayego, Pyro, and the infancy of what could become a Derby opinion

2008-04-12T23:45:00.000-04:00

Heckuva job by Gayego to gamely hold off Z Fortune in the stretch, but the latter unquestionably ran the better race. Gayego rode the rail in behind a bogus speed on a track that played favorable to frontrunners, made a well-timed move and managed not to drift out too far into Z Fortune's path. Z Fortune was four wide on both turns, dropped back slightly on the backstretch and tired a bit in the last eighth.

The fact that Tres Borrachos ran third and no one besides Indian Sun did any real closing gives me cause to put a question mark near Gayego's race. To be fair, I didn't like the horse going into the race, and he's certainly a tough dude who could hold on for a piece in the Derby, but he wasn't the best horse on Saturday.

Gayego's effort reminded me quite a bit of Tale of Ekati's run in the Wood.. Just off a hot pace, hitting the front and holding gamely late. The lone difference was that Gayego only had to overtake Tres Borrachos, while T of E needed to get past the two-year-old champion for his win. Gayego seems like another horse with too much speed for his own good, and although I was wary of declaring this Derby field speed-chocked, it's beginning to look like the fractions will be at least faster than the ones Hard Spun set last year.

War Pass, Recapturetheglory and Bob Black Jack are guaranteed to be gunning.. Big Brown won't be too far off, and Gayego should be within a length or two of the front. All of them except for Recapturetheglory are capable of sub-:46 halfs, and all five could get wobbly late.

Right now, I'm looking for a horse that won't be too far off the lead, but distant enough to not get burnted out. Smooth Air (the forgotten horse), Cool Coal Man, Colonel John?

Pyro certainly became a less attractive contender to some today, but I couldn't be happier with his race. I think it was the anchor on the ESPN telecast (who, irritatingly, kept saying that Hey Byrn got the graded earnings he needed today, even after Moss diplomatically said otherwise) who said that there's a consensus among west coast trainers that it's easier to go from synthetic to dirt than the other way around. I buy that, which is why I'm chucking Pyro's race.

The question I pose is, what do you think Pyro will go off at on 5/3 now? Usually I consider myself pretty good at estimating a horse's post time odds, but I have little clue as to how the betting public will judge today's race. I could see him at anything from 5/1 to 8/1. My guess is 7 or 8/1.

Also, how much will Pyro's race today end up effecting Big Brown and Colonel John's post time odds? Big Brown, who I previously thought would be 7/2, will probably be 5/2 or 3/1 now, which is way too short. Colonel John, who previously was probably around 6/1, could be as low as 9/2 now.

What I learned from the Blue Grass

2008-04-12T20:34:00.000-04:00

Nothing. When Stevil is fourth and Cool Coal Man, Pyro and Big Truck run 9-10-11, you chuck the race.

As far as what it means in terms of earnings, Monba is obviously in now, as is Cowboy Cal. So much for the dream of a Pletcher-free Derby.. Kentucky Bear and Stevil don't have enough. Barring a few defections, Halo Najib is out. Visionaire's fifth probably got him in.. Cool Coal Man and Big Truck should be safe. Everyone else (save Pyro of course) is out.

Arkansas Derby preview

2008-04-11T21:29:00.000-04:00

Same story.. Let's see who needs what. Except with the Arkansas Derby, second place pays enough ($200,000) to vault just about any of these horses into the Derby, so we'll widen the categories a bit.

First or Second Place Finish: Victory Pete (Barba), Tres Borrachos (Greely), Shekinah (Stewart), King's Silver Son (Asmussen), Gayego (Lobo), Isabull (Hobby), Liberty Bull (Amoss), Ablaze With Spirit (Asmussen), Jazz in the Park (Barnett)
Third Place Finish: Indian Sun (Hendricks), Golden Yank (Thomas), My Pal Charlie (Stall), Blackberry Road (Carroll), Z Fortune (Asmussen)
Slight Chance of Being Set With a Fourth: Z Fortune (Asmussen), My Pal Charlie (Stall), Blackberry Road (Carroll)
Already In: Nobody

With two more horses and no one set for the Derby without a placing, the Arkansas Derby should be way more of a thrilling clusterfuck than the Blue Grass. On with the cavalier and amateur analysis.

1.) VICTORY PETE (Barba/Potts) 12-1: Yeah, he got beaten by some good ones in the Sham, but he got away with murder on the front end and still offered little resistance. Same story in the Cal Derby.. Rail and Potts make his mission clear, but he'll be spitting the bit late.

2.) TRES BORRACHOS (Greely/Baze) 20-1: Went back to what he knows in El Camino Real and finished good third on the engine.. Figures are pretty darn weak though, with a high BSF of 83 and high TG of 6 1/2. Has legitimate distance questions too.. Pass.

12F.) SHEKINAH (Stewart/Emigh) 12-1: Coupled with Ablaze With Spirit and Jazz in the Park as part of "Field" betting interest. Been slowly improving for a while, and showed up big 3/16, taking N2L against 3+ in fast time.. TX-bred shouldn't be too far off with a repeat of last.

3.) KING'S SILVER SON (Asmussen/Quinonez) 6-1: Dead closer got just the trip he wanted in Rebel, earning figures (94 BSF, 4 1/2 TG) that may be a little inflated. Should get decent pace to run at again, but flattened out in only nine-furlong try.. Short price probably. No thanks.

4.) GAYEGO (Lobo/Smith) 5-2: Taking that kinda number on ANYBODY in this field is batshit crazy, especially this guy. Ran a 1:13 in winning San Pedro, but inclined to look at everything from late-January at SA with a skeptical eye.. First two-turn try was nothing special.. Maybe needed the race, but still, he's not bred to go far either. Looking elsewhere.

5.) ISABULL (Hobby/Doocy) 20-1: Not quite sure how King's Silver Son is 6-1 and this guy's 20-1.. Another one with questionable distance capabilities though, and while he was closer to the pace than King's Silver Son last out, he got the benefit of a rail trip. Not on top.

6.) MY PAL CHARLIE (Stall/Leparoux) 12-1: The fact that he was available for for a tag just 2 1/2 months ago raises flags, but some horses just need a little confidence.. Since then, he's been dynamite, and he's bred darn well.. Will face other speed though, so gonna make him prove himself again.

7.) BLACKBERRY ROAD (Carroll/Borel) 8-1: Though he earned just 87 BSF for La. Derby fourth, he was three wide around both turns and earned 3 1/2 TG.. Got no pace to run at in any of his FG races, but wasn't embarrassed in any of those races. Should get decent, if not blazing fractions to run into.. Time to see if he can be more than a parasite.

8.) LIBERTY BULL (Amoss/Razo) 6-1: Holy Bull gray has developed nicely through smart spacing, and Amoss is hot (10-of-12 in exacta at meet).. Already owns win over track, versatile sort, and always seems to fire. Chance for coming out party..

9.) GOLDEN YANK (Thomas/Sterling) 15-1: Probably needed the race when rather dull fourth in Rebel, but expecting improvement second back from break, and a return to one of his DED races would make him formidable.. Don't think he needs to come from the clouds either. 15-1? Mighty generous..

13F.) ABLAZE WITH SPIRIT (Asmussen/Berry) 12-1: Helligbrodt colt was no match for Liberty Bull at Sunland, but he's another who seems to be coming into his own and who always fires.. Local works can't hurt, and three for the price of one..

10.) Z FORTUNE (Asmussen/Albarado) 9-2: The horse to beat. Didn't give Pyro much of a run in La., but was compromised by being four wide on both turns.. Rebel stinker was too bad to believe, and he's worked well locally since. Not sure he wants to go this far and the post is miserable, but would rather bet him than Gayego..

11.) INDIAN SUN (Hendricks/Migliore) 12-1: Consistent colt has wrestled with the big boys many a time, but never seems to accomplish much when he does.. He was a suck-up second to El Gato Malo in San Rafael and a non-threatening fifth in the Cash Call Futurity. Should get splits to close at today, but he might just not be all that good.

14F.) JAZZ IN THE PARK (Barnett/Mena) 12-1: Comes here on top form, with two sharp closing victories at FG, but the waters get deeper here. Earned 4 1/2 TG for his last, which would make him a factor, and the post doesn't hurt him that much, but thinking he takes a step backward against this lot.

Selections
9 - Golden Yank
8 - Liberty Bull
12/Field - Shekinah, Ablaze With Spirit, Jazz in the Park
10 - Z Fortune

Alright buddies, I'm typed out for the night. I've sufficiently confused myself to the point where I had to flip back and forth through my mental dictionary to ferret out the word "sufficiently". Tomorrow should be lots of fun, with a much clearer Derby picture materializing at around 7 p.m. Eastern.

Blue Grass preview

2008-04-11T18:21:00.000-04:00

Firstly, let's look at this race from an earnings perspective, and assuming that all 12 entrants have Derby aspirations (not necessarily true, but for argument's sake), here's what each horse likely needs to get in the gate in Loovull:

First Place - Kentucky Bear (Baker), Stevil (Zito), Stone Bird (Lukas), Miner's Claim (Casse)
Second or Better - Cowboy Cal (Pletcher), Monba (Pletcher), Medjool (Hofmans)
Third or Fourth - Halo Najib (Romans)
Should Be Set, but a Placing Couldn't Hurt - Big Truck (Tagg), Visionaire (Matz)
In There Like Swimwear - Pyro (Asmussen), Cool Coal Man (Zito)

Now, with that in mind, let's have a glance at the Blue Grass, which I'm convinced would be a more formful surface than this Polytrack nonsense. (Note: Preview complete with Steve Byk trademarked nonspecifically suggestive double-dots!)

1.) COOL COAL MAN (Zito/Desormeaux) 4-1: Former speedball has learned to relax more and more, keeps drawing rail.. Wondering how much FOY took out of him, as he shows up 48 days later with just three works.. Doesn't need the earnings..

2.) KENTUCKY BEAR (Baker/Theriot) 50-1: M/L price seems like egregious overlay, considering this Mr. Greeley red was 4-1 in FOY. Didn't run a step that day, but got the experience and has a local work. Deserves another shot.

3.) COWBOY CAL (Pletcher/Velazquez) 15-1: Stonerside turfer picks weird time to jut onto Derby Trail.. Grass-to-synthetic won't be huge transition though and his figures are solid.. Good tactical foot and field isn't packed with speed..

4.) STEVIL (Zito/Bejarano) 30-1: Returned to top TG figure (5) in LA Derby. Usually slow morning horse perked up on Sunday with :59 and change breeze.. Wouldn't need to improve much to factor.

5.) MONBA (Pletcher/Prado) 15-1: Comes back to site of impressive maiden win. Ran solid fourth in Cash Call Futurity, but was a turkey in FOY. Even in chucking the race, his figures aren't that heft and he'll probably be underlaid.

6.) BIG TRUCK (Tagg/Coa) 6-1: NY-bred bay enjoyed perfect trip in TAM Derby, and another who won't be killing himself to take home top prize.. Looks to be moving right way though.

7.) PYRO (Asmussen/Bridgmohan) 1-1: Doesn't need anything out of the race other than a workout. Talent alone should get him a share, and wouldn't surprise as a winner, but he's the type of entrant you have to try and beat, right?

8.) STONE BIRD (Lukas/Lanerie) 50-1: DWL speed looks overmatched, even in this muddled field, but doesn't encounter many other frontrunners.. Stunk up the joint in lone KEE jaunt.

9.) MEDJOOL (Hofmans/Baze) 30-1: May have turned the corner, blowing away maidens at SA, then running deceptively large race in Lane's End. Was non-threatening third, but was six wide and five wide around turns, meriting TG fig of 2.. M/L overlay.

10.) MINER'S CLAIM (Casse/Husbands) 20-1: Lone hope for Canadian shipper is to go to lead and stay there.. Couldn't do that in Rushaway, even setting molasses fractions. Maybe he needed the race after 141 days off, but considering alternatives.. M/L underlay.

11.) HALO NAJIB (Romans/Gomez) 15-1: Zayat chestnut running in sixth graded stakes, but still needs earnings. Wide post doesn't help, but he showed ability to take back and close in Lane's End. Never was getting to Adriano though..

12.) VISIONAIRE (Matz/Lezcano) 6-1: Team Valor colt certainly has super closing kick, so if he gets pace to run at, look out. Interested to see how he responds after Gotham monsoon.. Texas Wildcatter came back terribly.. Lack of pace is a concern.

Selections that DON'T have Paul Anka's guarantee
3 - Cowboy Cal
2 - Kentucky Bear
7 - Pyro
9 - Medjool

Contender Profile: Cool Coal Man

2008-04-11T15:50:00.000-04:00

[NOTE: We now have TG numbers for the Derby contenders, excluding races from this past weekend]

Derby Status: Going
Graded Earnings: $210,000
Future Odds: 20/1
Owner: Robert V. LaPenta
Trainer: Nicholas P. Zito

Runs in the Blue Grass this Saturday. Mineshaft colt appeared to be developing quite nicely at two, steadily increasing figures to a 90 BSF and 3 TG in an N1X victory at CD on 11/3. After that though, he was rank in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, forced a quick pace and faded to last. Time off to mature appears to have been the reason for a two-month break in the winter, and he's come back in a big way. Still a little too headstrong, he snagged an N2X at GP, but then really put it all together in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Breaking from the intimidating rail, he relaxed off the pace nicely, made a sweeping early move on the second turn and held off a resurgent Elysium Fields late. The effort earned him a BSF of 98 and a TG of 3, and you know how sheets guys love horses that return to their two-year-old top early in their sophomore season. Wish he wasn't running on the tires this weekend, because it would be awesome to see if he keeps developing, but considering that he isn't strapped for earnings and considering that one of the post parade ponies could win and it wouldn't be remotely jarring, not sure we'll learn much from his race. Then again, if he runs like crap, up goes his price for the Derby. Main thing that would be good to see is more relaxing off the pace if the fractions are quick. Mineshaft doesn't have a significant amount of data to determine his distance influence, but Rubiano is a slightly below average distance damsire. Cool Coal Man's second dam, however, was a half to champion fillies Northernette and Storm Bird, for whatever that's worth. Looms a very intriguing sleeper.

Contender Profile: Colonel John

2008-04-11T13:49:00.000-04:00

[NOTE: Just so we're clear, these profiles are rudimentary as hell, and I know it. When the final TG and Ragozin numbers are published for the contenders and the field takes shape after the Lexington, these will all be revisited and updated]

Derby Status: Going
Graded Earnings: $660,000
Future Odds: 6/1
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC
Trainer: Eoin G. Harty

Tiznow bay has taken nary a misstep since narrow second in debut last summer at DMR, yet to finish out of the exacta in six tries, and asserting self as one of Derby favorites with dazzling finish to score in G1 SA Derby on Saturday. Though he's definitely got a super closing kick and can adjust to different pace scenarios, obvious questions loom. Of course there's the question of how he'll run over conventional dirt, and then comes the issue of slow figures on resume. Even his impressive SA Derby triumph earning a BSF of just 95, and as mediocre as this class has been, we're pretty sure it's going to take at least a 100 to win the Derby. With that said, many have learned just to chuck synthetic figures, although that might not be all that wise considering the relatively short price on this colt. Speaks to the quality of this year's field that a horse with figures of 74, 85, 82, 93, 86 and 95 would be the third choice in the final future pool, doesn't it? First generation, he's bred to run all day, with Tiznow providing above average distance influence and Turkoman throwing routers all over the place on the dam side. As a damsire, Turkoman gets an Average Winning Distance of 9.34 furlongs on dirt, 9.18 overall, both remarkably high numbers. This dude certainly doesn't run like a horse that would mind an extra furlong, and love the way Harty has brought him along distance-wise (six furlongs, seven, eight-and-a-half, eight-and-a-half, nine, nine). He's got much to prove, which makes him a dicey proposition at 6/1, but he clearly is of the upper echelon in this field.

Contender Profile: Bob Black Jack

2008-04-11T12:55:00.000-04:00

Derby Status: Going
Graded Earnings: $180,000
Future Odds: 42/1
Owner: Jeff Harmon and Tim Kasparoff
Trainer: James M. Kasparoff

Pretty cool to see this $4,500 yearling purchase turn into a $442,925 earner after just seven starts and come a furious Colonel John rally away from winning the G1 SA Derby. The colt clearly has tons of early gas in a field with plenty of it, but it's encouraging that he calmly sat a length off of Coast Guard on Saturday and still had something left for the drive. What's discouraging is how he bore out at the top of the stretch and didn't look at all like a horse who wanted another furlong. Migliore also had to get after him quite a bit, making it seem as though they squeezed him hard to get that Derby-securing first or second money. While he may be getting the hang of this routing thing yet, his running style, the potentially taxing SA Derby effort and the extra furlong make the case for staying away.

Synthetic surface deaths down, dart throwers rejoice

2008-04-10T21:57:00.000-04:00

Well, I guess the evidence is overwhelming and indisputable now. Even though I hate horses and want more of them to die on the racetrack, even I can't argue with the facts. Synthetic tracks, the tire-recycling wave of the future, have now proven (read: not proven) to be unequivocally safer on thoroughbreds.

A study done in March on catastrophic injuries at racetracks by The Jockey Club and Grayson-Jockey Club Research Foundation found that there were 1.96 racehorse fatalities per 1,000 starts on dirt tracks and 1.95 per 1,000 on synthetic tracks. Though a small sample, eyebrows were raised by the results of the study, considering that, you know, synthetic tracks were supposed to be made of gumdrops and rainbows and shit like that.

Revision to that study though, shows that the numbers are actually 2.02 per 1,000 on dirt and 1.47 per 1,000 on synthetics. And although Mary Scollay, who oversaw the study, says that "it is important to remember that these fatality rates are just a snapshot in time from a less-than-statistically-significant number of tracks, and cannot be considered scientifically conclusive at this point", I'm sure that's just propagandistic jargon from the dirt-loving, puppy-killing, stodgy old fart contingent of horseplayers that's still out of touch enough to enjoy dirt racing.

If you don't think the synthetic advocate clowns will latch on to these numbers and shove them down the throat of us old-fashioned handicappers, you're sadly mistaken. People that have managed to attach themselves so devoutly to an unproven and haphazard "solution" to the dangers of thoroughbred racing won't be swayed by reason or mitigating factors. They want stats, and these will do quite nicely.

Personally, I think that sooner rather than later, it's just going to be Belmont, Saratoga and Churchill (at least as far as big-time tracks go) that run on pure dirt tracks, which is fine with me. Less places to waste my money. It sucks though, that the average handicapper isn't more discriminating with his or her dollar. I've heard tons of people complain about the unpredictability and turf-like performance of synthetic surfaces, but I certainly haven't seen many handle plunges to coincide with the ostensible outrage.

Anyway, so concludes my obligatory rant about the synthetic takeover and its devoted following of knee-jerk roulette lovers. Back to Derby talk as soon as possible.

Review: Racetrack Fatality Ratio Changes [Bloodhorse]

Contender Profile: Blackberry Road

2008-04-10T20:19:00.000-04:00

Derby Status: Uncertain
Graded Earnings: $126,500
Future Odds: 46/1
Owner: Dogwood Stable
Trainer: David M. Carroll

Runs in the Arkansas Derby this Saturday. Tough to get all that excited about a colt still eligible for N1X tilts, but the usually conservative Carroll has had no problem throwing this Gone West son in with the wolves again and again, which should say something positive. Rallied strongly to be narrow second in G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, then didn't get the pace scenarios in New Orleans that would allow him to showcase his best. Still ran a solid second in the G3 LeComte, a traffic-laden fifth in the G3 Risen Star and a decent, if unspectacular fourth in the G2 Louisiana Derby. Certainly will get better pace to run at in the Derby, which makes him at least worth a second look, as does his family. His mom was a G3 winner and G1 placed around two turns, and he's a half to six-figure earners Vindication, True Reason, and Scipion, although he should probably be docked points for the latter sibling. He's clearly inferior to Pyro, and his KJC (85 BSF) and LeComte (90 BSF) figures might be a tad inflated, but gonna refrain from totally chucking him until he inevitably runs up the track Saturday.

Contender Profile: Big Truck

2008-04-10T05:22:00.000-04:00

Derby Status: Uncertain
Graded Earnings: $194,500
Future Odds: 32/1
Owner: Eric Fein
Trainer: Barclay Tagg

Excusing the two poor efforts by this NY-bred would make his sheet quite strong. Had a miserable trip in the G2 Remsen, then likely did not care for the slop or the wicked pace in the G2 Hutcheson. Ran very well in two TAM races, earning a 93 BSF for G3 Tampa Bay Derby score. Runs this Saturday in G1 Blue Grass, though not sure what that will say with it being run on the synthetic. Another one who has better distance breeding than one would think, with Hook and Ladder getting off to a good start as a sire across the board and Go for Gin providing decent stamina influence in limited shots as a damsire. Half-brother Logic Way had no trouble going long, albeit on turf. Future odds (32/1) seem about square, and will re-evaluate after Blue Grass.

Contender Profile: Big Brown

2008-04-10T05:21:00.000-04:00

Derby Status: Going
Graded Earnings: $600,000
Future Odds: 3/1
Owner: IEAH Stables and Paul Pompa, Jr., et al
Trainer: Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.

May be special horse in a very weak crop, will likely go postward favored, with nothing but outstanding wins on resume. Was as impressive as a two-year-old can be in debut, setting solid pace and drawing away to win by 11 1/4 on grass (90 BSF), coming home in :28.49 for his final five-sixteenths of a mile and a sixteenth. The fact that connections started him going long says something about his perceived distance capabilities, but the fact that he began on turf says something about his feet, and therein lies his major drawback. The colt very possibly has the most talent of this class, but may also be the most fragile of the lot, with notoriously bad feet. Still, he's done nothing but be spectacular since his debut, winning off-the-turfer by 12 3/4 in hand at GP (104 BSF), then going to the front and winning G1 Florida Derby from impossible post in 1:48 (106 BSF) while running greenly through the stretch. Desormeaux says he might be the best horse he's ever ridden, which should be taken with a grain of salt, but is worth putting out there. Distance pedigree is deceptively strong, with Nureyev dam influence balancing out the limitations of Boundary up top. Comparisons to Curlin's distant third in Derby abound with only three starts under belt, but this one has way more early speed than Curlin, making it more likely that he'll be able to work out his own trip. Obvious concern that he hasn't danced all the dances, making him ill prepared for the cavalry charge of the Derby, but throwing out a horse this talented against a field this terrible would be insanity. Will be interesting to see if he encounters any hiccups heading into the race. Enough questions loom to make him an underlay at 3/1 (future price), but barring a miserable draw or training setback, he's a must include in all exotics.

Contender Profile: Atoned

2008-04-10T05:15:00.000-04:00

Status for Derby: Going
Graded Earnings: $125,000
Future Odds: 59/1
Owner: Dogwood Stable
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher

Had little chance to win over speed-biased HAW surface, but ran on decently to finish wide fourth. One of the more experienced Derby candidates with nine starts under belt. Gave up clear leads in stretch runs of G3 Tampa Bay Derby and G2 Remsen. Modestly bred and doesn't have outstanding distance pedigree, but doesn't strike as a horse to quit going ten panels. Will adjust to any pace scenario, and has more two-turn experience than most in field (seven races). Two three-year-old figures are both strong (93 BSF, 93 BSF). Appears to be a bit one-paced, which will likely preclude him from being a win candidate, but one-paced plodders can often suck up for third or fourth in the Derby. Odds should be juicy if 59-1 future price is any indication. Another one who is usable in lower rungs of exotic tickets.

Contender Profile: Adriano

2008-04-10T05:12:00.000-04:00

Status for Derby: Uncertain
Graded Earnings: $325,000
Future Odds: 38/1
Owner: Courtlandt Farms
Trainer: H. Graham Motion

Has perhaps the best distance pedigree in the field, but any horse by A.P. Indy out of a Mr. Prospector mare will be bred to do everything. Ran very modest figures as a two-year-old, but has run a pair of good ones at three, winning a turf N1X by 6 3/4 (90 BSF) and taking the G2 Lane's End (92 BSF) while wide. Six of seven starts have come on synthetic or grass. In only start on actual dirt, was beaten badly in G2 Fountain of Youth (70 BSF), put to a constant drive and didn't seem to handle the surface, although far outside post didn't help matters. Not sure that was enough to suggest that he can't run on dirt, but it certainly didn't inspire confidence in his versatility. Won Lane's End impressively, but likely didn't beat much. Would seem to be overmatched in the Derby at this point, but he's not one to throw out of the bottom of exotics, as one thing he does appear to possess is staying power.

Curing our collective blog ADD

2008-04-10T04:56:00.000-04:00

Greetings. My name's Joe Bianca. If you remember my fine work at Saratoga: Diary of a Summer or the first season of Countdown to March, you might think I'm a pretty good blogger. After all, I do live with my parents and spend a considerable amount of time in my underwear. However, if you remember the mediocrity that was Saratoga Summer, Part Two and the second season of Countdown to March, you probably think I suddenly became too cool to blog.

Trust me, not the case. I've just come to begrudgingly accept the fact that unless one has absolutely nothing else going on in one's life, or unless one is getting paid to write a blog, it's pretty darn hard to consistently keep up one of these and make it interesting, insightful, funny, etc. It's also hard to be a daily reader of a certain blog, what with every organism that can tap keys in succession polluting the blogosphere.

Which is why I'm not challenging myself with this latest venture into nerd country. This is a specific purpose blog, solely about Kentucky Derby 134, which, if I can subtract correctly, is all of 23 days away. From now until then, I'll be doing Derby musings, analysis and dick jokes, because that's all I can thoughtfully write at this time of year. After May 3, this will probably be more dead air in the series of tubes. But let's have some fun in the meantime.