Until next year.
Monday, June 9, 2008
Friday, June 6, 2008
Quick look at the undercard
Still have a bit of work to do, but here's my early take on the five stakes..
The first three (True North, Just a Game, Acorn) look fairly straightforward, and it's a shame that there's no pick four that includes any of these races, because there's an opportunity to make some cash. Benny the Bull appears the class of the True North, if like me, you're not a Thor's Echo believer off the layoff. Vacare and Lady of Venice loom the ones to beat in the Just a Game, but Bit of Whimsy and Criminologist certainly wouldn't be shocking winners. Looking forward to the Acorn, as Indian Blessing, the even-money morning line favorite, is vulnerable. Zaftig and Game Face both look like quality one-turn fillies, and the juvenile filly champ will probably be overrated, as she has been. The Woody Stephens is very tough, as J Be K looks SLIGHTLY the best, but if he doesn't win, there are four or five others capable of pulling it off. The Manhattan, however, is freaking impossible. I'd love for someone to talk me out of any of these horses: Shakis, Stalingrad, Out of Control, Strike a Deal, Pays to Dream, Proudinksy, Dancing Forever and Stream of Gold. The race is so wide open, I'm considering going eight-wide and leaving off one of the most accomplished turf horses of the decade (Better Talk Now).
Be back once more before Saturday morning.
The first three (True North, Just a Game, Acorn) look fairly straightforward, and it's a shame that there's no pick four that includes any of these races, because there's an opportunity to make some cash. Benny the Bull appears the class of the True North, if like me, you're not a Thor's Echo believer off the layoff. Vacare and Lady of Venice loom the ones to beat in the Just a Game, but Bit of Whimsy and Criminologist certainly wouldn't be shocking winners. Looking forward to the Acorn, as Indian Blessing, the even-money morning line favorite, is vulnerable. Zaftig and Game Face both look like quality one-turn fillies, and the juvenile filly champ will probably be overrated, as she has been. The Woody Stephens is very tough, as J Be K looks SLIGHTLY the best, but if he doesn't win, there are four or five others capable of pulling it off. The Manhattan, however, is freaking impossible. I'd love for someone to talk me out of any of these horses: Shakis, Stalingrad, Out of Control, Strike a Deal, Pays to Dream, Proudinksy, Dancing Forever and Stream of Gold. The race is so wide open, I'm considering going eight-wide and leaving off one of the most accomplished turf horses of the decade (Better Talk Now).
Be back once more before Saturday morning.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Belmont Stakes preview
Here goes.. Not much time to waste, as there's a terrific undercard to get to work on, and everything that could be said about the big race has been said. I won't have any time to go over the undercard horse-by-horse, but each of the five stakes will be discussed before Saturday morning, for sure!
1.) BIG BROWN (Rick Dutrow, Jr./Kent Desormeaux) 2-5
Boundary colt comes back home for chance at immortality, with an unremarkable field standing in his way and a quarter crack that may or may not be a significant hindrance. Certainly done nothing wrong in five-race career, winning by 4 3/4+ lengths in every start. What's more, he's shown a remarkable tractability, running on and off the lead, and breaking from inside and extreme outside posts. His last three races have been superb. Beyer from last was somewhat light, but he was barely allowed to run, and his TG for the race (-1) was still plenty strong. The distance doesn't auger to be a problem for him, as he's smart enough to relax until his pilot says go. Two major hurdles are: Casino Drive, and that nasty split in the hoof. Not an equine expert, but it appears pretty painful, and said before the Preakness that he'd be a bad bet at 1-5 in here. With that said, it certainly didn't hurt him enough to prevent a picture perfect five-furlong blowout. Hoof specialist Ian McKinlay calls the crack a "4" on a scale of 1-10, for whatever that's worth. The prevailing sentiment is that it's a minor problem, if one at all. However, any strike against him is a significant one in this, a 12-furlong race in his third start in five weeks, against a potentially outstanding challenger. And of course, any injury raises red flags for a horse that had to be laid off six months for foot issues. He's still, obviously, the most likely winner, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him torch this field en route to the first Triple Crown in 30 years. It wouldn't be shocking, though, to see him flame out, as so many others have despite seeming invincible. Think long and hard before you single him.
2.) GUADALCANAL (Fred Seitz/Javier Castellano) 50-1
Surprise late entrant comes into this weak field off the best race of his life, a narrow miss going this distance on the CD turf. Can't totally blame connections for taking a shot at a suck-up third or fourth, but he's been very mediocre thus far, and he would need a major improvement even sniff the board. For the birds.
3.) MACHO AGAIN (Dallas Stewart/Garret Gomez) 20-1
West Point gray nabbed second in the Preakness at an overlaid 39-1, but his figures for that run (92 BSF, 2 1/2 TG) were decidedly weak, and he didn't make up any serious ground on a geared down Big Brown late. He did, however, close well after encountering trouble at the top of the stretch. Doubt he gets better with more distance though, and still believe his future lies as a one-turn closer. Certainly among the more talented horses in the field, so wouldn't totally exclude him, but humbly suggest using him sparingly underneath.
4.) DENIS OF CORK (David Carroll/Robby Albarado) 12-1
Blaze-faced son of Harlan's Holiday has shown flashes in his young career, and came up for third at 27-1 in the Derby. Points for that, as he was the only horse to close into what was a surprisingly modest pace. However, he was no threat to the top two finishers, and he certainly benefited from being on the rail around both turns. One wonders why his connections didn't choose the two-hole if that was the plan, but that's neither here nor there. Sure to lure some considerable dough being a closing third in a 10-furlong race, but not certain that he's all that much better than he showed. After all, his only other big race came with a completely perfect setup in the G3 Southwest. Will likely be closer to the chase this time around, which means more opportunity for trouble. Definitely is a candidate to fill out the trifecta, but at 12-1, he reeks of an underlay. Will try to beat him out of the triple.
5.) CASINO DRIVE (Kazuo Fujisawa/Edgar Prado) 7-2
The mystery horse, no matter how you feel about him, certainly looms as the second most likely winner in this race, and he may or may not prove to be something special. His win in the G2 Peter Pan was pretty freaking great, any way you slice it. He came into the race with one published work, broke like crap, then inhaled the field en route to a 5 3/4-length triumph. To be fair, once he recovered from the slow break, he lucked into a pretty perfect trip. At the same time, he likely will be better off for having the race, and he was straight as an arrow in the stretch, never looking tired. Definitely bred for the extra three furlongs as well, he should give the big horse his sternest challenge yet. The pick to complete a very boring exacta.
6.) DA' TARA (Nick Zito/Alan Garcia) 30-1
The likely pacesetter in the race has certainly stepped up his game since being trounced by the big horse in the G1 Fla. Derby, running a solid fifth in the fast $117,000 Derby Trial and backing that up with a game second in the $100,000 Barbaro three weeks ago at PIM. The waters, of course, get way deeper this time around, and his only hope is likely to go to the front and hope for :25 and :50 up top. Even then, he'll probably offer little resistance once the real running begins. Would only consider if the track came up wet.
7.) TALE OF EKATI (Barclay Tagg/Eibar Coa) 20-1
Tale of the Cat bay has run some very respectable races in his career, and his G1 Wood win was pretty impressive, considering the pace. However, he seems to be getting slower late the longer he goes, and he's really being pressed this time around. Finished an inconsequential fourth at 37-1 in the Derby, and he's quite the trooper, but this seems like a tall task for a horse that would likely appreciate a return to one turn. Will probably benefit being close to a slow pace, but doubt that's enough to get him more than fourth.
8.) ANAK NAKAL (Nick Zito/Julien Leparoux) 30-1
Yet to run a very fast race either on Beyers (87 high) or TGs (2 3/4 high), and he seems to run a similar race every time out. Avoid the pace and pass some tired horses late to finish a non-threatening fourth or fifth. Can't say he won't do it this time too, but he's too slow to matter for anything more.
9.) READY'S ECHO (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) 30-1
Ready's Image colt had the look of a Belmont horse in his debut last year, flying from 25 lengths out of it to be second to Z Humor at SAR. Seriously, he's turned into a useful little closer, and logic dictates that the further he goes, the more effective he'll be. However, there isn't much pace in the race, which could force him too close to the front, which is death on a deep closer like him. Never stops running, so he's definitely got a shot to crack the trifecta, but his price will likely determine his usage. At 30-1 or higher, he's worth including, but if he drifts down near 20-1, he's a pass.
10.) ICABAD CRANE (H. Graham Motion/Jeremy Rose) 20-1
NY-bred has run well in his last two, winning the $100,000 Frederico Tesio and running third in the Preakness despite having to close into moderate to slow clips in both heats. He's similar to the colt to his inside in that he looks the part of a 12-furlong horse, but he'll probably get caught too close to a slow pace. With that said, if the pace is quicker than expected, he's the one that would probably be the freshest in that last quarter-mile, considering his distance breeding. Like him underneath.
SELECTIONS
1.) BIG BROWN - Hurdles are significant, but certainly the most likely winner
5.) CASINO DRIVE - Not to be taken lightly, should press the big horse late
10.) ICABAD CRANE - Most likely to benefit if pace is quicker than expected
1.) BIG BROWN (Rick Dutrow, Jr./Kent Desormeaux) 2-5
Boundary colt comes back home for chance at immortality, with an unremarkable field standing in his way and a quarter crack that may or may not be a significant hindrance. Certainly done nothing wrong in five-race career, winning by 4 3/4+ lengths in every start. What's more, he's shown a remarkable tractability, running on and off the lead, and breaking from inside and extreme outside posts. His last three races have been superb. Beyer from last was somewhat light, but he was barely allowed to run, and his TG for the race (-1) was still plenty strong. The distance doesn't auger to be a problem for him, as he's smart enough to relax until his pilot says go. Two major hurdles are: Casino Drive, and that nasty split in the hoof. Not an equine expert, but it appears pretty painful, and said before the Preakness that he'd be a bad bet at 1-5 in here. With that said, it certainly didn't hurt him enough to prevent a picture perfect five-furlong blowout. Hoof specialist Ian McKinlay calls the crack a "4" on a scale of 1-10, for whatever that's worth. The prevailing sentiment is that it's a minor problem, if one at all. However, any strike against him is a significant one in this, a 12-furlong race in his third start in five weeks, against a potentially outstanding challenger. And of course, any injury raises red flags for a horse that had to be laid off six months for foot issues. He's still, obviously, the most likely winner, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him torch this field en route to the first Triple Crown in 30 years. It wouldn't be shocking, though, to see him flame out, as so many others have despite seeming invincible. Think long and hard before you single him.
2.) GUADALCANAL (Fred Seitz/Javier Castellano) 50-1
Surprise late entrant comes into this weak field off the best race of his life, a narrow miss going this distance on the CD turf. Can't totally blame connections for taking a shot at a suck-up third or fourth, but he's been very mediocre thus far, and he would need a major improvement even sniff the board. For the birds.
3.) MACHO AGAIN (Dallas Stewart/Garret Gomez) 20-1
West Point gray nabbed second in the Preakness at an overlaid 39-1, but his figures for that run (92 BSF, 2 1/2 TG) were decidedly weak, and he didn't make up any serious ground on a geared down Big Brown late. He did, however, close well after encountering trouble at the top of the stretch. Doubt he gets better with more distance though, and still believe his future lies as a one-turn closer. Certainly among the more talented horses in the field, so wouldn't totally exclude him, but humbly suggest using him sparingly underneath.
4.) DENIS OF CORK (David Carroll/Robby Albarado) 12-1
Blaze-faced son of Harlan's Holiday has shown flashes in his young career, and came up for third at 27-1 in the Derby. Points for that, as he was the only horse to close into what was a surprisingly modest pace. However, he was no threat to the top two finishers, and he certainly benefited from being on the rail around both turns. One wonders why his connections didn't choose the two-hole if that was the plan, but that's neither here nor there. Sure to lure some considerable dough being a closing third in a 10-furlong race, but not certain that he's all that much better than he showed. After all, his only other big race came with a completely perfect setup in the G3 Southwest. Will likely be closer to the chase this time around, which means more opportunity for trouble. Definitely is a candidate to fill out the trifecta, but at 12-1, he reeks of an underlay. Will try to beat him out of the triple.
5.) CASINO DRIVE (Kazuo Fujisawa/Edgar Prado) 7-2
The mystery horse, no matter how you feel about him, certainly looms as the second most likely winner in this race, and he may or may not prove to be something special. His win in the G2 Peter Pan was pretty freaking great, any way you slice it. He came into the race with one published work, broke like crap, then inhaled the field en route to a 5 3/4-length triumph. To be fair, once he recovered from the slow break, he lucked into a pretty perfect trip. At the same time, he likely will be better off for having the race, and he was straight as an arrow in the stretch, never looking tired. Definitely bred for the extra three furlongs as well, he should give the big horse his sternest challenge yet. The pick to complete a very boring exacta.
6.) DA' TARA (Nick Zito/Alan Garcia) 30-1
The likely pacesetter in the race has certainly stepped up his game since being trounced by the big horse in the G1 Fla. Derby, running a solid fifth in the fast $117,000 Derby Trial and backing that up with a game second in the $100,000 Barbaro three weeks ago at PIM. The waters, of course, get way deeper this time around, and his only hope is likely to go to the front and hope for :25 and :50 up top. Even then, he'll probably offer little resistance once the real running begins. Would only consider if the track came up wet.
7.) TALE OF EKATI (Barclay Tagg/Eibar Coa) 20-1
Tale of the Cat bay has run some very respectable races in his career, and his G1 Wood win was pretty impressive, considering the pace. However, he seems to be getting slower late the longer he goes, and he's really being pressed this time around. Finished an inconsequential fourth at 37-1 in the Derby, and he's quite the trooper, but this seems like a tall task for a horse that would likely appreciate a return to one turn. Will probably benefit being close to a slow pace, but doubt that's enough to get him more than fourth.
8.) ANAK NAKAL (Nick Zito/Julien Leparoux) 30-1
Yet to run a very fast race either on Beyers (87 high) or TGs (2 3/4 high), and he seems to run a similar race every time out. Avoid the pace and pass some tired horses late to finish a non-threatening fourth or fifth. Can't say he won't do it this time too, but he's too slow to matter for anything more.
9.) READY'S ECHO (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) 30-1
Ready's Image colt had the look of a Belmont horse in his debut last year, flying from 25 lengths out of it to be second to Z Humor at SAR. Seriously, he's turned into a useful little closer, and logic dictates that the further he goes, the more effective he'll be. However, there isn't much pace in the race, which could force him too close to the front, which is death on a deep closer like him. Never stops running, so he's definitely got a shot to crack the trifecta, but his price will likely determine his usage. At 30-1 or higher, he's worth including, but if he drifts down near 20-1, he's a pass.
10.) ICABAD CRANE (H. Graham Motion/Jeremy Rose) 20-1
NY-bred has run well in his last two, winning the $100,000 Frederico Tesio and running third in the Preakness despite having to close into moderate to slow clips in both heats. He's similar to the colt to his inside in that he looks the part of a 12-furlong horse, but he'll probably get caught too close to a slow pace. With that said, if the pace is quicker than expected, he's the one that would probably be the freshest in that last quarter-mile, considering his distance breeding. Like him underneath.
SELECTIONS
1.) BIG BROWN - Hurdles are significant, but certainly the most likely winner
5.) CASINO DRIVE - Not to be taken lightly, should press the big horse late
10.) ICABAD CRANE - Most likely to benefit if pace is quicker than expected
Monday, June 2, 2008
Less than five days away
Back after a hectic few weeks for an even more hectic week. The field is about set, and starting Wednesday, this blog will once again be flooded with updates.. Hope you folks planning on joining the 120,000 or so of us in Elmont on Saturday didn't get sodomized for tickets, because general admission works just fine, believe me. I'll be darting all around the track during the day, hanging out with good friend and At the Races host Steve Byk and a few other buddies, likely arriving soon after the gates open (8:30 a.m.). Should be a fun afternoon, and though this, of course, can rapidly change, the weather looks promising. Will be back on Wednesday when the Saturday card is drawn for a rundown of the Stakes, then Thursday and Friday will be spent perusing the undercard. Saturday's the big day. Be back shortly.
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