Kentucky Derby (G1)
$2,000,000, 1 1/4 miles, 3 yo, Churchill Downs, May 3
1. Cool Coal Man, Julien Leparoux 20-1
2. Tale of Ekati, Eibar Coa 15-1
3. Anak Nakal, Rafael Bejarano 30-1
4. Court Vision, Garret Gomez 20-1
5. Eight Belles, Gabriel Saez 20-1
6. Z Fortune, Robby Albarado 15-1
7. Big Truck, Javier Castellano 50-1
8. Visionaire, Jose Lezcano 20-1
9. Pyro, Shaun Bridgmohan 6-1
10. Colonel John, Corey Nakatani 4-1
11. Z Humor, Rene Douglas 30-1
12. Smooth Air, Manoel Cruz 20-1
13. Bob Black Jack, Richard Migliore 20-1
14. Monba, Ramon Dominguez 15-1
15. Adriano, Edgar Prado 30-1
16. Denis of Cork, Calvin Borel 20-1
17. Cowboy Cal, John Velazquez 20-1
18. Recapturetheglory, E. T. Baird 20-1
19. Gayego, Mike Smith 15-1
20. Big Brown, Kent Desormeaux 3-1
Back with plenty of thoughts once the PP's are released and after the Celtics/Hawks game, then more after the TG's come out sometime tomorrow. Also, a pretty significant development in terms of weather. Though I hate early weather discussion as much as anybody, we're less than two days away from the Oaks and less than three from the Derby, so it's become soemthing worth talking about. Oaks Day legitimately might be a washout, Derby day should be fine.. Stay tuned..
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Order of draw
In the process of writing up a preview for the Oaks, but here are the pill draws for the Derby. Remember, of course, that this doesn't equal post position, rather it is the order in which they will select their own post position. Very relevant nonetheless.
Visionaire
Big Truck
Colonel John
Z Fortune
Pyro
Eight Belles
Anak Nakal
Court Vision
Z Humor
Monba
Smooth Air
Adriano
Bob Black Jack
Denis of Cork
Cowboy Cal
Big Brown
Tale of Ekati
Cool Coal Man
Recapturetheglory
Gayego
Gayego looks like a total toss now, and I'm not encouraged by Cool Coal Man's draw either. Big Brown will have his work cut out for him, and if there was any doubt before, we now know that Eight Belles will be in the Derby. Glad to see Colonel John, Z Fortune and Pyro, three horses I'm planning on using, draw early, although with their styles, not sure it matters a whole lot. More after the actual draw (slated to be at 5-6 p.m. EST on ESPN, but there's nothing on my Guide about it, and the PTI guys said they'd be back today)..
Visionaire
Big Truck
Colonel John
Z Fortune
Pyro
Eight Belles
Anak Nakal
Court Vision
Z Humor
Monba
Smooth Air
Adriano
Bob Black Jack
Denis of Cork
Cowboy Cal
Big Brown
Tale of Ekati
Cool Coal Man
Recapturetheglory
Gayego
Gayego looks like a total toss now, and I'm not encouraged by Cool Coal Man's draw either. Big Brown will have his work cut out for him, and if there was any doubt before, we now know that Eight Belles will be in the Derby. Glad to see Colonel John, Z Fortune and Pyro, three horses I'm planning on using, draw early, although with their styles, not sure it matters a whole lot. More after the actual draw (slated to be at 5-6 p.m. EST on ESPN, but there's nothing on my Guide about it, and the PTI guys said they'd be back today)..
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Contender Profile: Z Fortune
Okay, last one for the night, must get some sleep, as I'm still fuming over the Celtics' loss, and Oaks Day draws tomorrow!
Future Odds: 54/1
Owner: Zayat Stables LLC
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen
Another future price that looks mighty tasty after the AR Derby, with this Siphon gray running a better race than Gayego in finishing second by three-quarters of a length. NY-bred colt reeled off three straight to start his career, then was hung four wide around both turns in the Risen Star and proved no match for Pyro, who was awesome that day. No one's quite sure what happened in the Rebel, but to his credit, that race represents his only significant misstep, and he bounced back in a big way at Oaklawn. He was three wide around both turns and was the only horse to make up significant ground on the frontrunners before flattening out a bit late. His TG figure for the AR Derby was big (-3/4). He's got the right style for the Derby, with enough tactical speed to allow him not to fall far out of it, but not too much to where he'll be caught on a hot pace. He's got sneaky distance breeding too, and like the way Asmussen has handled him since the OP race, with two easy half-mile breezes. Certainly should be fit enough, and barring any wiseguy money dumping, he'll be around 20/1. Will be using in exacta wagers.
Future Odds: 54/1
Owner: Zayat Stables LLC
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen
Another future price that looks mighty tasty after the AR Derby, with this Siphon gray running a better race than Gayego in finishing second by three-quarters of a length. NY-bred colt reeled off three straight to start his career, then was hung four wide around both turns in the Risen Star and proved no match for Pyro, who was awesome that day. No one's quite sure what happened in the Rebel, but to his credit, that race represents his only significant misstep, and he bounced back in a big way at Oaklawn. He was three wide around both turns and was the only horse to make up significant ground on the frontrunners before flattening out a bit late. His TG figure for the AR Derby was big (-3/4). He's got the right style for the Derby, with enough tactical speed to allow him not to fall far out of it, but not too much to where he'll be caught on a hot pace. He's got sneaky distance breeding too, and like the way Asmussen has handled him since the OP race, with two easy half-mile breezes. Certainly should be fit enough, and barring any wiseguy money dumping, he'll be around 20/1. Will be using in exacta wagers.
Contender Profile: Monba
Future Odds: 14/1 (All other 3-year-olds)
Owner: Starlight, Lucarelli and Saylor
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Gray colt had some early buzz after a pair of two-year-old wins and a closing fourth in the Cash Call Futurity, but he stunk it up in the Fountain of Youth before bouncing back to score in the Blue Grass. Prado though, gets off of him to ride Adriano on Saturday, which isn't a good sign, considering that he won on this colt three weeks after he won on Adriano, which means he must really not have been wowed with Monba. Gamely scored at KEE despite being three wide around both turns, and earned a solid, if unspectacular TG fig (2 3/4) for the effort. Still, a non-effort over dirt and a win over polytrack with one mediocre workout since doesn't seem like the recipe for a Derby winner. On the plus side, he has enough tactical speed to keep him close, he does own a local win and he gets good stamina influence from his dam side, but he just doesn't seem all that fast. Would use sparingly if he were to climb above 40/1.
Owner: Starlight, Lucarelli and Saylor
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Gray colt had some early buzz after a pair of two-year-old wins and a closing fourth in the Cash Call Futurity, but he stunk it up in the Fountain of Youth before bouncing back to score in the Blue Grass. Prado though, gets off of him to ride Adriano on Saturday, which isn't a good sign, considering that he won on this colt three weeks after he won on Adriano, which means he must really not have been wowed with Monba. Gamely scored at KEE despite being three wide around both turns, and earned a solid, if unspectacular TG fig (2 3/4) for the effort. Still, a non-effort over dirt and a win over polytrack with one mediocre workout since doesn't seem like the recipe for a Derby winner. On the plus side, he has enough tactical speed to keep him close, he does own a local win and he gets good stamina influence from his dam side, but he just doesn't seem all that fast. Would use sparingly if he were to climb above 40/1.
Contender Profile: Z Humor
Future Odds: 14/1 (All other 3-year-olds)
Owner: Zayat Stables LLC
Trainer: William I. Mott
Just a horse I can't talk myself into liking. He has three somewhat competitive races on his resume, the Champagne third (97 BSF, 5 TG), the Delta Jackpot dead heat win (96 BSF, 5 TG) and the IL Derby third (94 BSF, 5 TG). I'm of the mind that all three of those races were rated too highly, and there just isn't anything, save for a sloppy track, that would make him stick out. Not much of a "profile", I know, but if you can think of a reason to like him, I'm all ears.
Owner: Zayat Stables LLC
Trainer: William I. Mott
Just a horse I can't talk myself into liking. He has three somewhat competitive races on his resume, the Champagne third (97 BSF, 5 TG), the Delta Jackpot dead heat win (96 BSF, 5 TG) and the IL Derby third (94 BSF, 5 TG). I'm of the mind that all three of those races were rated too highly, and there just isn't anything, save for a sloppy track, that would make him stick out. Not much of a "profile", I know, but if you can think of a reason to like him, I'm all ears.
Contender Profile: Denis of Cork
As you can see, I've lost any semblance of order in doing these things. Just trying to get all of my thoughts out there before the draw.
Future Odds: 26/1
Owner: Mr. and Mrs. William K. Warren, Jr.
Trainer: David M. Carroll
Harlan's Holiday bay took three in a row before sputtering home fifth in the IL Derby, but to many (including your humble narrator), that race is pretty much a toss. He had to take back wide behind a soft pace on a track that favored speed and the rail, if not as starkly as many have reported. Main issue with this colt is that his big race, the G3 Southwest win (96 BSF, 1/4 TG) was aided by a DREAM setup. His internal fractions for the race behind dying speed were :24.11, :48.19, 1:12.30, 1:24.75, 1:37.89. It doesn't get much sweeter than that in a one-turn mile. By contrast, Sierra Sunset, whom Denis of Cork beat by 2 1/4, ran significantly quicker early splits of :23.37, :46.15 and 1:11.15. It's worth mentioning though, that the third-place horse, who had a similar trip to Denis of Cork, returned to score in the WinStar Derby. Worked beautifully the last two weeks, and he certainly has done nothing wrong, but it's just the uncertainty over how good the Southwest really was that's bugging me. He also is bred decently, but not exceedingly well, for a mile-and-a-quarter. My usage of him would probably depend on his odds. At 30/1 or better, he's definitely worth including, but in the 20/1-24/1 range, he begins to look like an underlay. With that said, he probably has one of the higher ceilings in this Derby field, so it wouldn't be a total shock to see him draped in roses. I'll be using him, but mostly on the bottom of my wagers.
Future Odds: 26/1
Owner: Mr. and Mrs. William K. Warren, Jr.
Trainer: David M. Carroll
Harlan's Holiday bay took three in a row before sputtering home fifth in the IL Derby, but to many (including your humble narrator), that race is pretty much a toss. He had to take back wide behind a soft pace on a track that favored speed and the rail, if not as starkly as many have reported. Main issue with this colt is that his big race, the G3 Southwest win (96 BSF, 1/4 TG) was aided by a DREAM setup. His internal fractions for the race behind dying speed were :24.11, :48.19, 1:12.30, 1:24.75, 1:37.89. It doesn't get much sweeter than that in a one-turn mile. By contrast, Sierra Sunset, whom Denis of Cork beat by 2 1/4, ran significantly quicker early splits of :23.37, :46.15 and 1:11.15. It's worth mentioning though, that the third-place horse, who had a similar trip to Denis of Cork, returned to score in the WinStar Derby. Worked beautifully the last two weeks, and he certainly has done nothing wrong, but it's just the uncertainty over how good the Southwest really was that's bugging me. He also is bred decently, but not exceedingly well, for a mile-and-a-quarter. My usage of him would probably depend on his odds. At 30/1 or better, he's definitely worth including, but in the 20/1-24/1 range, he begins to look like an underlay. With that said, he probably has one of the higher ceilings in this Derby field, so it wouldn't be a total shock to see him draped in roses. I'll be using him, but mostly on the bottom of my wagers.
Contender Profile: Gayego
Future Odds: 57/1
Owner: Cubanacan Stables
Trainer: Paulo H. Lobo
Kudos to any who snagged this gorgeous son of Gilded Time at that number in the final future wager, as he'll likely be one-fourth that at post time Saturday. Yet to be out of the exacta in five starts, and scored a game victory in the AR Derby last out, earning big figures (103 BSF, -1/4 TG) across the board. Seems to have answered the call in what was his first start on dirt and only second around two turns, but something about that race was a little fishy. The top four all ran career bests figure-wise (Gayego 103, Z Fortune 102, Tres Borrachos 95, Indian Sun 92), so that alone gives cause for pause, but the track at Oaklawn appeared to favor speed more as the day wore on. It even LOOKED difficult for closers; if one checks the replay, huge chunks of dirt are flying back from the speed horses. Might not be all that much of a coincidence that Z Fortune and Indian Sun -- the only two horses that did any closing -- were wide and in the clear for significant parts of the race. Gayego did show the ability in his N1X second to come from off the pace, but he's got a high cruising speed and should be forwardly placed. That may not be as much of a problem now as it was before War Pass declared, but the pace still should be quick enough. Based on figures, however inflated they may be, he fits, so at 20/1 or so, he'd probably be worth an inclusion, but it's unlikely he gets that high. Bred to go short, by sprinting influence Gilded Time, out of a mare from another sprinting influence, Lost Code. He's talented enough to hold on for a piece, so if he floats up towards the aforementioned number, he's worth including in smaller tickets, but I'm against him otherwise.
Owner: Cubanacan Stables
Trainer: Paulo H. Lobo
Kudos to any who snagged this gorgeous son of Gilded Time at that number in the final future wager, as he'll likely be one-fourth that at post time Saturday. Yet to be out of the exacta in five starts, and scored a game victory in the AR Derby last out, earning big figures (103 BSF, -1/4 TG) across the board. Seems to have answered the call in what was his first start on dirt and only second around two turns, but something about that race was a little fishy. The top four all ran career bests figure-wise (Gayego 103, Z Fortune 102, Tres Borrachos 95, Indian Sun 92), so that alone gives cause for pause, but the track at Oaklawn appeared to favor speed more as the day wore on. It even LOOKED difficult for closers; if one checks the replay, huge chunks of dirt are flying back from the speed horses. Might not be all that much of a coincidence that Z Fortune and Indian Sun -- the only two horses that did any closing -- were wide and in the clear for significant parts of the race. Gayego did show the ability in his N1X second to come from off the pace, but he's got a high cruising speed and should be forwardly placed. That may not be as much of a problem now as it was before War Pass declared, but the pace still should be quick enough. Based on figures, however inflated they may be, he fits, so at 20/1 or so, he'd probably be worth an inclusion, but it's unlikely he gets that high. Bred to go short, by sprinting influence Gilded Time, out of a mare from another sprinting influence, Lost Code. He's talented enough to hold on for a piece, so if he floats up towards the aforementioned number, he's worth including in smaller tickets, but I'm against him otherwise.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Contender Profile: Tale of Ekati
"Derby Status" and "Graded Earnings" are irrelevant at this point, considering that I'll only be examining horses that will be in the gate on Saturday. On we go.
Future Odds: 18/1
Owner: Charles E. Fipke
Trainers: Barclay Tagg
The exact kind of horse where Beyer users and Thorograph users will disagree. Beyer users will say that his last (93 BSF) was to be expected, considering his previous figs (84, 82, 94, 95, 89). Thorograph heads, however, will say that his last (1/2 TG) was HUGE, considering his previous figs (5 1/2, 5 1/2, 5, 5, 5). I lean towards Jerry Brown's minions on this one, as I think it was quite the effort. While War Pass ran fast all the way around the track, Tale of Ekati got to live with a more manageable first quarter (:23.52), but it was three wide around a turn on a slow track, so adjust accordingly. Then, with Giant Moon and Texas Wildcatter moving early to his inside, Prado did the same thing, forcing Tale of Ekati to run his second quarter in :22.88 for a half in :46.40, and again, adjust accordingly with the glib surface. After rabbit Inner Light spit the bit, instead of sputtering behind a clear War Pass, Tale of Ekati kept to work, going three wide again, and eventually wearing down the gutsy frontrunner, finishing up in an understandably slow :40.44 for his last three furlongs. An impressive run. That had to be an extremely taxing effort, though to his credit, he's breezed twice since the race, including a snappy minute-and-change at KEE last Wednesday. Like the way he's been brought along distance-wise. Get the feeling that this dude is best suited to nine furlongs and under, although his second dam Maplejinsky won the Alabama, and produced champion filly Sky Beauty and was the second dam to Pleasant Home and the ill-fated Pine Island. Not too thrilled that Prado is riding fringe candidate Adriano instead of here, and one needs to expect some kind of effect off that last race. Wouldn't recommend him for the win or exacta, but would stop shy of excluding him entirely.
Future Odds: 18/1
Owner: Charles E. Fipke
Trainers: Barclay Tagg
The exact kind of horse where Beyer users and Thorograph users will disagree. Beyer users will say that his last (93 BSF) was to be expected, considering his previous figs (84, 82, 94, 95, 89). Thorograph heads, however, will say that his last (1/2 TG) was HUGE, considering his previous figs (5 1/2, 5 1/2, 5, 5, 5). I lean towards Jerry Brown's minions on this one, as I think it was quite the effort. While War Pass ran fast all the way around the track, Tale of Ekati got to live with a more manageable first quarter (:23.52), but it was three wide around a turn on a slow track, so adjust accordingly. Then, with Giant Moon and Texas Wildcatter moving early to his inside, Prado did the same thing, forcing Tale of Ekati to run his second quarter in :22.88 for a half in :46.40, and again, adjust accordingly with the glib surface. After rabbit Inner Light spit the bit, instead of sputtering behind a clear War Pass, Tale of Ekati kept to work, going three wide again, and eventually wearing down the gutsy frontrunner, finishing up in an understandably slow :40.44 for his last three furlongs. An impressive run. That had to be an extremely taxing effort, though to his credit, he's breezed twice since the race, including a snappy minute-and-change at KEE last Wednesday. Like the way he's been brought along distance-wise. Get the feeling that this dude is best suited to nine furlongs and under, although his second dam Maplejinsky won the Alabama, and produced champion filly Sky Beauty and was the second dam to Pleasant Home and the ill-fated Pine Island. Not too thrilled that Prado is riding fringe candidate Adriano instead of here, and one needs to expect some kind of effect off that last race. Wouldn't recommend him for the win or exacta, but would stop shy of excluding him entirely.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Contender Profile: Pyro
Now that all of the preps are completed and all of the figures are in, we're gonna get to the meat and potatoes of the field, and examine each horse in order of graded earnings. Of all Derby horses, Pyro has probably gotten the most unwarranted adulation and unwarranted grief. He ran a few big races at two and did what he had to do at Fair Grounds, but then, (cue shock) ran a stinker on polytrack. There are no overwhelming positives or negatives to Pyro, but what he has done, save for his Blue Grass, has run about as fast and been about as consistent as anyone in the field. And now he'll be 7-1+, rather than the 9/2 he would've been had he won the Blue Grass.
Derby Status: Going
Graded Earnings: $1,020,000
Future Odds: 5/1
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC
Trainers: Steven M. Asmussen
Awesome, I've been dying to get to this horse. Why I like Pyro: His Louisiana races were way better than they looked, and after running a stupid fast final 5/16 (approximately :28.58, almost unheard of for a dirt horse) in the Risen Star, Bridgmo decided to take him closer to the pace in the La. Derby and see what he could do. Probably the most significant development of Pyro's career in terms of his shot in the Derby. He still finished in a very respectable :30.37. We had a feeling Pyro possessed some kinda tactical speed, but it wasn't until then that he showed the ability to be something other than a one-run closer. Key for the Derby of course, since now that War Pass won't be going, the pace may not be quite as quick. Hopefully Bridgmohan and the Ass Man don't listen to the hype and have this horse 10th or 11th rather than 17th or 18th down the backstretch. Why I don't like Pyro: He's taking too much money based on two two-year-old figure that I think were rather bogus. The Champagne number came up too fast -- the first three finishers only duplicated that form in other questionably figured races, in my opinion -- and though I was impressed by his BC Juvy effort, it seems a little high as well. His pedigree doesn't scream ten furlongs, but he's a strong finisher who figures to hit the board. I'm trying to beat all three favorites on top, but he's obviously one of the ones and has to be used.
Derby Status: Going
Graded Earnings: $1,020,000
Future Odds: 5/1
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC
Trainers: Steven M. Asmussen
Awesome, I've been dying to get to this horse. Why I like Pyro: His Louisiana races were way better than they looked, and after running a stupid fast final 5/16 (approximately :28.58, almost unheard of for a dirt horse) in the Risen Star, Bridgmo decided to take him closer to the pace in the La. Derby and see what he could do. Probably the most significant development of Pyro's career in terms of his shot in the Derby. He still finished in a very respectable :30.37. We had a feeling Pyro possessed some kinda tactical speed, but it wasn't until then that he showed the ability to be something other than a one-run closer. Key for the Derby of course, since now that War Pass won't be going, the pace may not be quite as quick. Hopefully Bridgmohan and the Ass Man don't listen to the hype and have this horse 10th or 11th rather than 17th or 18th down the backstretch. Why I don't like Pyro: He's taking too much money based on two two-year-old figure that I think were rather bogus. The Champagne number came up too fast -- the first three finishers only duplicated that form in other questionably figured races, in my opinion -- and though I was impressed by his BC Juvy effort, it seems a little high as well. His pedigree doesn't scream ten furlongs, but he's a strong finisher who figures to hit the board. I'm trying to beat all three favorites on top, but he's obviously one of the ones and has to be used.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Final Earnings Tally
Assuming no one tries the elusive Withers-Derby double.
1. PYRO $1,020,000
PROUD SPELL - UNLIKELY, BUT NOT RULED OUT $880,000
2. TALE OF EKATI $738,000
3. COLONEL JOHN $720,000
4. GAYEGO $640,000
5. BIG BROWN $600,000
6. Z HUMOR $579,000
7. MONBA $515.000
8. COURT VISION $331.872
9. Z FORTUNE $329,000
10. ADRIANO $310,000
11. RECAPTURETHEGLORY $300,000
12. SMOOTH AIR $290,000
13. COOL COAL MAN $212,767
14. ANAK NAKAL $212,216
EIGHT BELLES - ON THE FENCE $210,000
15. COWBOY CAL $207,660
BEHINDATTHEBAR - UNLIKELY, BUT NOT RULED OUT $204,500
16. VISIONAIRE $202,500
17. BIG TRUCK $194,500
18. BOB BLACK JACK $180,000
19. DENIS OF CORK $165,000
20. HALO NAJIB $157.996
21. INDIAN SUN $154,000
22. TOMCITO $151,292
23. MY PAL CHARLIE $150,000
24. HEY BYRN $140,000
There you haves it. As of now, Halo Najib is the last one in, but if either Eight Belles or Behindatthebar go, he's out, and if both go, that shows Denis of Cork the door. Probably one or neither will go though, so Dave Carroll's charge should be safe. Personally, I'd like to see a defection or two to get Indian Sun in, as he's a horse that I think could crack the super at a humongous price. By the way, why does Blogger flag "humongous" for spell check? I'm pretty sure that's a real word.
There's definitely some ambiguity on this side over whether ten-cent supers will be available on the Derby. No official word that I can find, and I've heard claims on both ends about it. It's of import to me, because as a broke ass college student, this will likely be the difference between whether I attack the tri or take a shot at the super next Saturday.
1. PYRO $1,020,000
PROUD SPELL - UNLIKELY, BUT NOT RULED OUT $880,000
2. TALE OF EKATI $738,000
3. COLONEL JOHN $720,000
4. GAYEGO $640,000
5. BIG BROWN $600,000
6. Z HUMOR $579,000
7. MONBA $515.000
8. COURT VISION $331.872
9. Z FORTUNE $329,000
10. ADRIANO $310,000
11. RECAPTURETHEGLORY $300,000
12. SMOOTH AIR $290,000
13. COOL COAL MAN $212,767
14. ANAK NAKAL $212,216
EIGHT BELLES - ON THE FENCE $210,000
15. COWBOY CAL $207,660
BEHINDATTHEBAR - UNLIKELY, BUT NOT RULED OUT $204,500
16. VISIONAIRE $202,500
17. BIG TRUCK $194,500
18. BOB BLACK JACK $180,000
19. DENIS OF CORK $165,000
20. HALO NAJIB $157.996
21. INDIAN SUN $154,000
22. TOMCITO $151,292
23. MY PAL CHARLIE $150,000
24. HEY BYRN $140,000
There you haves it. As of now, Halo Najib is the last one in, but if either Eight Belles or Behindatthebar go, he's out, and if both go, that shows Denis of Cork the door. Probably one or neither will go though, so Dave Carroll's charge should be safe. Personally, I'd like to see a defection or two to get Indian Sun in, as he's a horse that I think could crack the super at a humongous price. By the way, why does Blogger flag "humongous" for spell check? I'm pretty sure that's a real word.
There's definitely some ambiguity on this side over whether ten-cent supers will be available on the Derby. No official word that I can find, and I've heard claims on both ends about it. It's of import to me, because as a broke ass college student, this will likely be the difference between whether I attack the tri or take a shot at the super next Saturday.
Friday, April 18, 2008
Lexington preview
Last call! Here's who needs what for Derby..
First Place: Just about everybody other than Salute the Sarge. Atoned is the only one who MIGHT be straight with a second.
Wide open Lexy, folks, as a case can be made for nearly every horse in the race.
1.) ATONED (Pletcher/Prado) 3-1: Dogwood colt ran huge in first soph start after mediocre baby season, finishing narrow second in Tampa Derby despite being three- and five-wide on turns. Prado and Velazquez switch mounts, with Johnny climbing aboard Riley Tucker. Son of Repent has a bit of hang to him, but in fairness, he's had excuses for his last three runner-up finishes. Had no shot behind crawl at HAW, still earned figure of 93 for fourth. TG number (5 3/4) wasn't as impressive, but his TAM number (2 1/4) towers over what most in here can run. Tad concerned he ran too well in that one, and rail draw isn't often benefit at KEE, especially with three speeds to his outside. Nevertheless, he fits on figures, and any kind of rebound effort puts him squarely in contention for the win. Look elsewhere for value though.
2.) SALUTE THE SARGE (Guillot/Baze) 4-1: Forest Wildcat bay is already in based on earnings and trainer seems gunshy about Derby to say the least, but the Run for the Roses, she be a seductress. Done about nothing wrong in career save for no-chance BC Juvy try, and returned in style 3/29 with 1 3/4-length triumph in $78,000 San Miguel at SA. Earned decent enough figures (89 BSF, 5 1/2 TG) for that effort, but that was his first run since October and there are legitimate questions (by Guillot too) about his two-turn ability. Also seems the type to not want to be far back, and with two dead speed horses to his outside and a closer to his inside, Baze might have to go early. M/L price is underlay any way you look at it. Have to go elsewhere.
3.) SAMBA ROOSTER (Baffert/Gomez) 8-1: Lone runner not TC nominated has set some mighty quick fractions in his brief racing life, including a ridiculous :22 2/5, :44, 1:08 4/5 clip two back, when he understandably was a well-beaten third. Last out got a relative break (:23 4/5, :46 1/5, 1:10 2/5) on front end and turned it into big-figure (94 BSF, 3 TG) second in GP N1X. Problem is he was quite one-dimensional for Wolfson; that likely won't change with arrival in this barn, and there's one who's just as quick to his outside, not to mention a likely sprinter on the left as well. Never been two turns and save for sealed track romp 2/8, he's been backing up at the end of every race. Songandaprayer influence doesn't assuage distance concerns. Seems unlikely.
4.) ST. JOE (Miller/Mena) 8-1: Can't fault connections for trying here, as only two wins and best races of his career have come over this surface, including an MSW victory over Racecar Rhapsody last fall (though that one was severely compromised by the break). Comes into this off big-time wire job at 14-1 and perhaps the removal of blinkers has stopped him from being a quitter when he doesn't get his way. Setting those fractions (:22 2/5, :44 4/5) at KEE and winning sure isn't easy, so credit where credit is due, but he faces some other major speed to his inside and his lone two-turn try was uninspiring. Could run them off their feet, but unless Samba Rooster scratches, that probably won't happen.
5.) RACECAR RHAPSODY (McPeek/Albarado) 9-2: Second start off the layoff for this Tale of the Cat colt, and though his Lane's End fourth was a bit disappointing, he likely needed the start and ran on a dead rail for much of the race. Good news for McPeek as far as today goes is that blinkers didn't put too much speed into him, so he should be able to take back off a hot pace and make his one run. Take issue with that high Jackpot figure (93 BSF), as not many out of there have come back to duplicate it, and his TG figures are nothing spectacular (high of 5, only 6 1/2 last time). Still, this colt proved emphatically last fall that he can handle the tires, and he should be ready to improve off the break. M/L price a little too short to take, but he's an obvious contender.
6.) FELON (Maker/Leparoux) 20-1: First two efforts were dull, but Stephen Got Even bay exploded with a 6 1/2-length romp at TP last out, earning modest BSF of 80 but big TG of 2 1/2 for his four- and three-wide trip. The way he's bred, the extra sixteenth certainly won't bother him, and can't find anything wrong with :59 1/5 training facility breeze in company with Maker trainee Mr. Champ, who's an outsider in the G3 Bill Hartack at nine furlongs at HAW Saturday. Certainly gets the acid test, but wouldn't make him an automatic toss.
7.) BEHINDATTHEBAR (Pletcher/Flores) 12-1: Won off without much asking in SA N1X last out, though he got to drifting in, which he's done before. Took his lumps when fifth at 5/2 in El Camino Real, but may be better for it. Shipped across country since allowance win and has local half-mile in tow. Flores in town for the ride a good sign, and this colt appears to have the tactical speed to lay off a hot pace. Not quite sure what he beat last time out, but can say that for a few of these coming off big wins. Might be getting good at the right time.
8.) TOMCITO (Zanelli/Chavez) 6-1: Peruvian import was actually bred in Kentucky, and comes back home for final try at Derby earnings. Tough to get much of a read on Fla. Derby third. It was his first start in 4+ months and he earned good figures (85 BSF, 3 TG) for the effort, but the race set up perfectly for him and all he did was pass dead horses. Likely needed the race, but while those "G1" tags from his Peru races stick out, the actual level of competition he faced is highly questionable. Nonetheless, he figures to improve second off the break and he should get the perfect setup once again. Not in love with him at 6/1, but wouldn't totally leave off any serious ticket.
9.) BIG GLEN (Brothers/Douglas) 12-1: Cactus Ridge chestnut has had quite the eventful career, with slow starts and rough trips littered throughout his PP's. Three back though, he ran a big one to score in the $50,000 WEBN at TP, closing four-wide behind modest fractions to score by 1 1/4. May have regressed a bit and encountered trouble in the Battaglia Memorial, but bounced back with a workmanlike score in the Rushaway. Think he's better off dropping back and making one run, which he should get to do in this field. Could offer some value.
10.) RILEY TUCKER (Mott/Velazquez) 12-1: Yet another Zayat purchase, this Harlan's Holiday colt has failed to reproduce the form that earned him a narrow second to Wicked Style in the Arl-Wash Futurity last summer. Really don't like that he failed at 3/5 in FG N1X two back. Blinkers could wake him back up, but they'll also put him closer to the lead, which may not be the place to be in this field. Contender on his best, but leaning elsewhere today.
11.) RED SANDY (Lukas/Theriot) 30-1: Figure-light colt appears to be the lone outsider in competitive field, but Lukas gets the benefit of finding speedy field for this dead closer. Think he's too slow at this point to contend for the top spot, but wouldn't be totally floored if he cracked the super at a big number.
Must Use: #1 ATONED (3-1), #5 RACECAR RHAPSODY (9-2), #8 TOMCITO (6-1)
Value Inclusions: #6 FELON (20-1), BEHINDATTHEBAR (12-1), #9 BIG GLEN (12-1)
Not Using: #2 SALUTE THE SARGE (4-1), #3 SAMBA ROOSTER (8-1), #4 ST. JOE (8-1), #10 RILEY TUCKER (12-1)
Superfecta Booster: #11 RED SANDY (30-1)
First Place: Just about everybody other than Salute the Sarge. Atoned is the only one who MIGHT be straight with a second.
Wide open Lexy, folks, as a case can be made for nearly every horse in the race.
1.) ATONED (Pletcher/Prado) 3-1: Dogwood colt ran huge in first soph start after mediocre baby season, finishing narrow second in Tampa Derby despite being three- and five-wide on turns. Prado and Velazquez switch mounts, with Johnny climbing aboard Riley Tucker. Son of Repent has a bit of hang to him, but in fairness, he's had excuses for his last three runner-up finishes. Had no shot behind crawl at HAW, still earned figure of 93 for fourth. TG number (5 3/4) wasn't as impressive, but his TAM number (2 1/4) towers over what most in here can run. Tad concerned he ran too well in that one, and rail draw isn't often benefit at KEE, especially with three speeds to his outside. Nevertheless, he fits on figures, and any kind of rebound effort puts him squarely in contention for the win. Look elsewhere for value though.
2.) SALUTE THE SARGE (Guillot/Baze) 4-1: Forest Wildcat bay is already in based on earnings and trainer seems gunshy about Derby to say the least, but the Run for the Roses, she be a seductress. Done about nothing wrong in career save for no-chance BC Juvy try, and returned in style 3/29 with 1 3/4-length triumph in $78,000 San Miguel at SA. Earned decent enough figures (89 BSF, 5 1/2 TG) for that effort, but that was his first run since October and there are legitimate questions (by Guillot too) about his two-turn ability. Also seems the type to not want to be far back, and with two dead speed horses to his outside and a closer to his inside, Baze might have to go early. M/L price is underlay any way you look at it. Have to go elsewhere.
3.) SAMBA ROOSTER (Baffert/Gomez) 8-1: Lone runner not TC nominated has set some mighty quick fractions in his brief racing life, including a ridiculous :22 2/5, :44, 1:08 4/5 clip two back, when he understandably was a well-beaten third. Last out got a relative break (:23 4/5, :46 1/5, 1:10 2/5) on front end and turned it into big-figure (94 BSF, 3 TG) second in GP N1X. Problem is he was quite one-dimensional for Wolfson; that likely won't change with arrival in this barn, and there's one who's just as quick to his outside, not to mention a likely sprinter on the left as well. Never been two turns and save for sealed track romp 2/8, he's been backing up at the end of every race. Songandaprayer influence doesn't assuage distance concerns. Seems unlikely.
4.) ST. JOE (Miller/Mena) 8-1: Can't fault connections for trying here, as only two wins and best races of his career have come over this surface, including an MSW victory over Racecar Rhapsody last fall (though that one was severely compromised by the break). Comes into this off big-time wire job at 14-1 and perhaps the removal of blinkers has stopped him from being a quitter when he doesn't get his way. Setting those fractions (:22 2/5, :44 4/5) at KEE and winning sure isn't easy, so credit where credit is due, but he faces some other major speed to his inside and his lone two-turn try was uninspiring. Could run them off their feet, but unless Samba Rooster scratches, that probably won't happen.
5.) RACECAR RHAPSODY (McPeek/Albarado) 9-2: Second start off the layoff for this Tale of the Cat colt, and though his Lane's End fourth was a bit disappointing, he likely needed the start and ran on a dead rail for much of the race. Good news for McPeek as far as today goes is that blinkers didn't put too much speed into him, so he should be able to take back off a hot pace and make his one run. Take issue with that high Jackpot figure (93 BSF), as not many out of there have come back to duplicate it, and his TG figures are nothing spectacular (high of 5, only 6 1/2 last time). Still, this colt proved emphatically last fall that he can handle the tires, and he should be ready to improve off the break. M/L price a little too short to take, but he's an obvious contender.
6.) FELON (Maker/Leparoux) 20-1: First two efforts were dull, but Stephen Got Even bay exploded with a 6 1/2-length romp at TP last out, earning modest BSF of 80 but big TG of 2 1/2 for his four- and three-wide trip. The way he's bred, the extra sixteenth certainly won't bother him, and can't find anything wrong with :59 1/5 training facility breeze in company with Maker trainee Mr. Champ, who's an outsider in the G3 Bill Hartack at nine furlongs at HAW Saturday. Certainly gets the acid test, but wouldn't make him an automatic toss.
7.) BEHINDATTHEBAR (Pletcher/Flores) 12-1: Won off without much asking in SA N1X last out, though he got to drifting in, which he's done before. Took his lumps when fifth at 5/2 in El Camino Real, but may be better for it. Shipped across country since allowance win and has local half-mile in tow. Flores in town for the ride a good sign, and this colt appears to have the tactical speed to lay off a hot pace. Not quite sure what he beat last time out, but can say that for a few of these coming off big wins. Might be getting good at the right time.
8.) TOMCITO (Zanelli/Chavez) 6-1: Peruvian import was actually bred in Kentucky, and comes back home for final try at Derby earnings. Tough to get much of a read on Fla. Derby third. It was his first start in 4+ months and he earned good figures (85 BSF, 3 TG) for the effort, but the race set up perfectly for him and all he did was pass dead horses. Likely needed the race, but while those "G1" tags from his Peru races stick out, the actual level of competition he faced is highly questionable. Nonetheless, he figures to improve second off the break and he should get the perfect setup once again. Not in love with him at 6/1, but wouldn't totally leave off any serious ticket.
9.) BIG GLEN (Brothers/Douglas) 12-1: Cactus Ridge chestnut has had quite the eventful career, with slow starts and rough trips littered throughout his PP's. Three back though, he ran a big one to score in the $50,000 WEBN at TP, closing four-wide behind modest fractions to score by 1 1/4. May have regressed a bit and encountered trouble in the Battaglia Memorial, but bounced back with a workmanlike score in the Rushaway. Think he's better off dropping back and making one run, which he should get to do in this field. Could offer some value.
10.) RILEY TUCKER (Mott/Velazquez) 12-1: Yet another Zayat purchase, this Harlan's Holiday colt has failed to reproduce the form that earned him a narrow second to Wicked Style in the Arl-Wash Futurity last summer. Really don't like that he failed at 3/5 in FG N1X two back. Blinkers could wake him back up, but they'll also put him closer to the lead, which may not be the place to be in this field. Contender on his best, but leaning elsewhere today.
11.) RED SANDY (Lukas/Theriot) 30-1: Figure-light colt appears to be the lone outsider in competitive field, but Lukas gets the benefit of finding speedy field for this dead closer. Think he's too slow at this point to contend for the top spot, but wouldn't be totally floored if he cracked the super at a big number.
Must Use: #1 ATONED (3-1), #5 RACECAR RHAPSODY (9-2), #8 TOMCITO (6-1)
Value Inclusions: #6 FELON (20-1), BEHINDATTHEBAR (12-1), #9 BIG GLEN (12-1)
Not Using: #2 SALUTE THE SARGE (4-1), #3 SAMBA ROOSTER (8-1), #4 ST. JOE (8-1), #10 RILEY TUCKER (12-1)
Superfecta Booster: #11 RED SANDY (30-1)
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Who you should be rooting for
The weeks leading up to the Derby can be a very befuddling time for any racing fan.. Attempting to form early notions of who will be what price, as well as how the race will be run, and coming up with a Derby strategy are difficult things to do, especially for those of us with overactive imaginations. One either tries to distract oneself from the loudening Derby chatter with leisure activities, or one might create a blog where one pretends that other people care what one thinks. Choosing who to wager on is overwhelming enough, but we also must eventually decide what horses to pull for as fans. Nearly all racing fans, regardless of whether they bet on them or not, loved watching the relatively unknown connections of Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex score Triple Crown wins, and there's definitely that part of us which loves to see the proverbial little guy top the Sheikhs and Whitneys and Overbrooks. But there are other motivations for choosing a horse to cheer on, and to help eighty-six any extra indecision clouding your brain, I've broken down who you should root across the wire in the Derby based on what's important to you.
If you, like many of us do, want to see a Triple Crown winner, Big Brown's your guy. Not to say there are no other possible TC winners this year, because in a crop this bad, a horse only has to have a good five weeks, but from a talent standpoint, no runner appears to have the potential to dominate the others like Big Brown does. Questions abound regarding his fitness, maturity and fragility, but if he can avoid any pitfalls, he's the horse to end the now 30-year drought.
Hate polytrack? Latch on to Pyro or Cool Coal Man. It truly would drive a stake through the collective hearts of the polytrack backers for them to see a horse run ninth or tenth in a polytrack prep, work hard to convince people that the problem was the horses and not the track, then see one of said horses come back to win the freaking Derby.
Love polytrack? Adriano proving that his Lane's End wasn't a surface-induced fluke would do well for your cause.
Like the little guy? Smooth Air should do nicely. First-time Derby connections all around, a tiny homebred colt with VERY modest breeding who's getting zero attention from the populace. It's made for TV.
Think auction prices mean nothing? Go for Tomcito. By $100,000 sire Street Cry, this colt brought back a paltry $7,500 as a yearling, but has earned $154,000+ and looms a prime contender in Saturday's sexy Lexy at KEE.
Other than that, we've got your obvious ones.. Girls, and guys who like American Idol, root for Eight Belles, West Coasters convinced of East Coast bias, you have Colonel John, Gayego and Bob Black Jack, people who like plodding nags get Court Vision, etc.. Aha, see how I slipped that in there?
• In some jockey jockeying, Edgar Prado, the most recent rider of Adriano, Tale of Ekati and Monba, has chosen Adriano as his Derby mount, citing allegiance to trainer Graham Motion. Personally, I'd say the fact that he waited this long to decide doesn't auger real well for any of the three, since I'd think that if he were sufficiently wowed by any of 'em in their respective final preps, he would've committed. I'm soon gonna put together a post about "on the fence" horses, and all three of these colts were going to be included as horses I can't decide on, but the more I think about it, the more I feel like tossing them all or using them sparingly. A crappy workout or draw would seal the deal on any one for me. Ramon Dominguez, by the way, has picked up the mount on Monba.
If you, like many of us do, want to see a Triple Crown winner, Big Brown's your guy. Not to say there are no other possible TC winners this year, because in a crop this bad, a horse only has to have a good five weeks, but from a talent standpoint, no runner appears to have the potential to dominate the others like Big Brown does. Questions abound regarding his fitness, maturity and fragility, but if he can avoid any pitfalls, he's the horse to end the now 30-year drought.
Hate polytrack? Latch on to Pyro or Cool Coal Man. It truly would drive a stake through the collective hearts of the polytrack backers for them to see a horse run ninth or tenth in a polytrack prep, work hard to convince people that the problem was the horses and not the track, then see one of said horses come back to win the freaking Derby.
Love polytrack? Adriano proving that his Lane's End wasn't a surface-induced fluke would do well for your cause.
Like the little guy? Smooth Air should do nicely. First-time Derby connections all around, a tiny homebred colt with VERY modest breeding who's getting zero attention from the populace. It's made for TV.
Think auction prices mean nothing? Go for Tomcito. By $100,000 sire Street Cry, this colt brought back a paltry $7,500 as a yearling, but has earned $154,000+ and looms a prime contender in Saturday's sexy Lexy at KEE.
Other than that, we've got your obvious ones.. Girls, and guys who like American Idol, root for Eight Belles, West Coasters convinced of East Coast bias, you have Colonel John, Gayego and Bob Black Jack, people who like plodding nags get Court Vision, etc.. Aha, see how I slipped that in there?
• In some jockey jockeying, Edgar Prado, the most recent rider of Adriano, Tale of Ekati and Monba, has chosen Adriano as his Derby mount, citing allegiance to trainer Graham Motion. Personally, I'd say the fact that he waited this long to decide doesn't auger real well for any of the three, since I'd think that if he were sufficiently wowed by any of 'em in their respective final preps, he would've committed. I'm soon gonna put together a post about "on the fence" horses, and all three of these colts were going to be included as horses I can't decide on, but the more I think about it, the more I feel like tossing them all or using them sparingly. A crappy workout or draw would seal the deal on any one for me. Ramon Dominguez, by the way, has picked up the mount on Monba.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Contender Profile: Court Vision
Derby Status: Going
Graded Earnings: $331,872
Future Odds: 19/1
Owner: IEAH Stables and WinStar Farm
Trainer: William I. Mott
Was more than mildly disgusted with his race in the Wood, as he had everything set up for him.. He sat miles off of a sickeningly fast pace, got a well-timed ride from Gomez, and still flattened out badly in the last furlong. His approximate internal splits for the race were :25.46, :48.90, 1:13.15, 1:38.90, 1:52.65.. Now I know the track played slowly, but for a dead closer who got away with those first three fractions, to run the last three-eighths in :39.50 is embarrassing.. Seems to me like all he ever does is pass dead horses, and he couldn't even do that in the Wood. One thing you can say for him is that he's not going to stop running (slowly), so the case can be made for a suck-up third or fourth, but at anything less than 30-1, he might not even be worth that kind of inclusion.
Graded Earnings: $331,872
Future Odds: 19/1
Owner: IEAH Stables and WinStar Farm
Trainer: William I. Mott
Was more than mildly disgusted with his race in the Wood, as he had everything set up for him.. He sat miles off of a sickeningly fast pace, got a well-timed ride from Gomez, and still flattened out badly in the last furlong. His approximate internal splits for the race were :25.46, :48.90, 1:13.15, 1:38.90, 1:52.65.. Now I know the track played slowly, but for a dead closer who got away with those first three fractions, to run the last three-eighths in :39.50 is embarrassing.. Seems to me like all he ever does is pass dead horses, and he couldn't even do that in the Wood. One thing you can say for him is that he's not going to stop running (slowly), so the case can be made for a suck-up third or fourth, but at anything less than 30-1, he might not even be worth that kind of inclusion.
Monday, April 14, 2008
The stories that will eventually make your eyes/ears bleed
As with any major sporting event, the Kentucky Derby is reported on ad nauseum, for weeks at a time, even when nothing (really) is going on. And since, as a whole, the mainstream media types don't take those of us who consume such inanity for a very discerning lot (and also since most of those media types are also too lazy or gutless to come up with original stories), there's a strong unspoken effort to fit all information regarding said event into a cozy set of narratives. I know I'm not breaking any ground here, but I felt compelled to bring this up, because with so-called "niche" sports, like tennis, golf and horse racing, the compressed and repetitive coverage can get borderline insulting. While there's certainly a large group of talented and informed racing writers, in the weeks leading up to the Derby, every clown who overheard something about Bellamy Road needing the lead or Curlin being inexperienced declares themselves qualified to opine on shit that the thoughtful racing fans have likely moved on from discussing a while ago.
So, with that inevitability looming, here are the Derby "angles" that will slowly beat the life out of you in the next 19 days. And yes, I realize that it seems like I'm just adding (in some small way) to the perpetuation of these overblown stories, but bear with me. I'm going to answer every storyline with a concise and obnoxiously matter-of-fact rebuttal, then vow not to give them any significant space on here again. That'll show those media types. The first three stories are already being done to death, the rest are ones that I think are bubbling under, not quite ripe enough yet for overwhelming repetition.
1.) Is Big Brown too inexperienced to win the Derby?
No. He might be too immature to win the Derby, but he's not too inexperienced. Curlin didn't lose last year because he only had three starts. He lost because the two horses that beat him had dream trips, and he didn't have enough speed to get a better trip. Big Brown is super fast, and barring a terrible draw, he'll work out a cleaner trip than Curlin did. If he loses, it'll be because he went batshit in the paddock or because he drifted out or because he got spent up front.
2.) What is Pyro's dud in the Blue Grass worth?
Nothing. Next.
3.) Can Colonel John run on dirt?
Who the fuck knows? Stop asking me this question. Cushion Track appears to be way more similar to dirt than Polytrack, Tiznow throws dirt runners and going synthetic to dirt is probably way easier than doing the opposite. I say he'll handle it fine, but what the hell do I know? It's a guess by anyone until April 28, circa when he'll work at Churchill. Must we focus on guesswork for the next two weeks?
4.) What to make of the Wood?
Not much. War Pass proved once again that he can't rate, making him a throwout for the Derby, Tale of Ekati ran well considering how Prado moved him into the teeth of a wicked pace. The fact remains that the time was slow though, and it's tough to endorse any of the Wood horses going ten panels when they finished their final prep in :40.86. Oh, Court Vision is a rat. That we learned.
5.) Are Pletcher's pair any good?
It would be hypocritical of me to definitively say no because they ran slowly on polytrack, considering that I'm tossing Pyro's race. They're not hopeless, but they're close.
6.) Is Z Fortune Asmussen's best shot?
No. Stop trying to be cute, indefinite future column writer.
7.) Gayego's Arkansas Derby proves that the west coast horses are for real.
I disagree. I think that Gayego rode a speed-biased track to an inflated-figure victory. Each California horse's chances must be dissected individually. For example: Colonel John has a big shot, Bob Black Jack has no shot. See, that was easy!
8.) This is a bad crop of three-year-olds.
Thanks a lot Woodward. Must have done a lot of research to come up with that earth-shattering paradigm.
9.) There will be a fast pace in the Derby.
See above.
10.) [Insert hopeless longshot] will win the Derby.
This is a Vic Zeigel special. Stop it. The only reason you're saying that is because if the horse manages to win the Derby and pay $80, you can crow about it for the next 20 years, and if the horse runs up the track, you can dismiss it by saying "oh well, I'm not a racing writer anyway!" It's a no-lose situation for the uninformed mainstream columnist.
There we go. Another obligatory rant out of the way, and now we can get back to the infinite many more interesting and relevant Derby conundrums.
So, with that inevitability looming, here are the Derby "angles" that will slowly beat the life out of you in the next 19 days. And yes, I realize that it seems like I'm just adding (in some small way) to the perpetuation of these overblown stories, but bear with me. I'm going to answer every storyline with a concise and obnoxiously matter-of-fact rebuttal, then vow not to give them any significant space on here again. That'll show those media types. The first three stories are already being done to death, the rest are ones that I think are bubbling under, not quite ripe enough yet for overwhelming repetition.
1.) Is Big Brown too inexperienced to win the Derby?
No. He might be too immature to win the Derby, but he's not too inexperienced. Curlin didn't lose last year because he only had three starts. He lost because the two horses that beat him had dream trips, and he didn't have enough speed to get a better trip. Big Brown is super fast, and barring a terrible draw, he'll work out a cleaner trip than Curlin did. If he loses, it'll be because he went batshit in the paddock or because he drifted out or because he got spent up front.
2.) What is Pyro's dud in the Blue Grass worth?
Nothing. Next.
3.) Can Colonel John run on dirt?
Who the fuck knows? Stop asking me this question. Cushion Track appears to be way more similar to dirt than Polytrack, Tiznow throws dirt runners and going synthetic to dirt is probably way easier than doing the opposite. I say he'll handle it fine, but what the hell do I know? It's a guess by anyone until April 28, circa when he'll work at Churchill. Must we focus on guesswork for the next two weeks?
4.) What to make of the Wood?
Not much. War Pass proved once again that he can't rate, making him a throwout for the Derby, Tale of Ekati ran well considering how Prado moved him into the teeth of a wicked pace. The fact remains that the time was slow though, and it's tough to endorse any of the Wood horses going ten panels when they finished their final prep in :40.86. Oh, Court Vision is a rat. That we learned.
5.) Are Pletcher's pair any good?
It would be hypocritical of me to definitively say no because they ran slowly on polytrack, considering that I'm tossing Pyro's race. They're not hopeless, but they're close.
6.) Is Z Fortune Asmussen's best shot?
No. Stop trying to be cute, indefinite future column writer.
7.) Gayego's Arkansas Derby proves that the west coast horses are for real.
I disagree. I think that Gayego rode a speed-biased track to an inflated-figure victory. Each California horse's chances must be dissected individually. For example: Colonel John has a big shot, Bob Black Jack has no shot. See, that was easy!
8.) This is a bad crop of three-year-olds.
Thanks a lot Woodward. Must have done a lot of research to come up with that earth-shattering paradigm.
9.) There will be a fast pace in the Derby.
See above.
10.) [Insert hopeless longshot] will win the Derby.
This is a Vic Zeigel special. Stop it. The only reason you're saying that is because if the horse manages to win the Derby and pay $80, you can crow about it for the next 20 years, and if the horse runs up the track, you can dismiss it by saying "oh well, I'm not a racing writer anyway!" It's a no-lose situation for the uninformed mainstream columnist.
There we go. Another obligatory rant out of the way, and now we can get back to the infinite many more interesting and relevant Derby conundrums.
Saturday, April 12, 2008
Gayego, Pyro, and the infancy of what could become a Derby opinion
Heckuva job by Gayego to gamely hold off Z Fortune in the stretch, but the latter unquestionably ran the better race. Gayego rode the rail in behind a bogus speed on a track that played favorable to frontrunners, made a well-timed move and managed not to drift out too far into Z Fortune's path. Z Fortune was four wide on both turns, dropped back slightly on the backstretch and tired a bit in the last eighth.
The fact that Tres Borrachos ran third and no one besides Indian Sun did any real closing gives me cause to put a question mark near Gayego's race. To be fair, I didn't like the horse going into the race, and he's certainly a tough dude who could hold on for a piece in the Derby, but he wasn't the best horse on Saturday.
Gayego's effort reminded me quite a bit of Tale of Ekati's run in the Wood.. Just off a hot pace, hitting the front and holding gamely late. The lone difference was that Gayego only had to overtake Tres Borrachos, while T of E needed to get past the two-year-old champion for his win. Gayego seems like another horse with too much speed for his own good, and although I was wary of declaring this Derby field speed-chocked, it's beginning to look like the fractions will be at least faster than the ones Hard Spun set last year.
War Pass, Recapturetheglory and Bob Black Jack are guaranteed to be gunning.. Big Brown won't be too far off, and Gayego should be within a length or two of the front. All of them except for Recapturetheglory are capable of sub-:46 halfs, and all five could get wobbly late.
Right now, I'm looking for a horse that won't be too far off the lead, but distant enough to not get burnted out. Smooth Air (the forgotten horse), Cool Coal Man, Colonel John?
Pyro certainly became a less attractive contender to some today, but I couldn't be happier with his race. I think it was the anchor on the ESPN telecast (who, irritatingly, kept saying that Hey Byrn got the graded earnings he needed today, even after Moss diplomatically said otherwise) who said that there's a consensus among west coast trainers that it's easier to go from synthetic to dirt than the other way around. I buy that, which is why I'm chucking Pyro's race.
The question I pose is, what do you think Pyro will go off at on 5/3 now? Usually I consider myself pretty good at estimating a horse's post time odds, but I have little clue as to how the betting public will judge today's race. I could see him at anything from 5/1 to 8/1. My guess is 7 or 8/1.
Also, how much will Pyro's race today end up effecting Big Brown and Colonel John's post time odds? Big Brown, who I previously thought would be 7/2, will probably be 5/2 or 3/1 now, which is way too short. Colonel John, who previously was probably around 6/1, could be as low as 9/2 now.
The fact that Tres Borrachos ran third and no one besides Indian Sun did any real closing gives me cause to put a question mark near Gayego's race. To be fair, I didn't like the horse going into the race, and he's certainly a tough dude who could hold on for a piece in the Derby, but he wasn't the best horse on Saturday.
Gayego's effort reminded me quite a bit of Tale of Ekati's run in the Wood.. Just off a hot pace, hitting the front and holding gamely late. The lone difference was that Gayego only had to overtake Tres Borrachos, while T of E needed to get past the two-year-old champion for his win. Gayego seems like another horse with too much speed for his own good, and although I was wary of declaring this Derby field speed-chocked, it's beginning to look like the fractions will be at least faster than the ones Hard Spun set last year.
War Pass, Recapturetheglory and Bob Black Jack are guaranteed to be gunning.. Big Brown won't be too far off, and Gayego should be within a length or two of the front. All of them except for Recapturetheglory are capable of sub-:46 halfs, and all five could get wobbly late.
Right now, I'm looking for a horse that won't be too far off the lead, but distant enough to not get burnted out. Smooth Air (the forgotten horse), Cool Coal Man, Colonel John?
Pyro certainly became a less attractive contender to some today, but I couldn't be happier with his race. I think it was the anchor on the ESPN telecast (who, irritatingly, kept saying that Hey Byrn got the graded earnings he needed today, even after Moss diplomatically said otherwise) who said that there's a consensus among west coast trainers that it's easier to go from synthetic to dirt than the other way around. I buy that, which is why I'm chucking Pyro's race.
The question I pose is, what do you think Pyro will go off at on 5/3 now? Usually I consider myself pretty good at estimating a horse's post time odds, but I have little clue as to how the betting public will judge today's race. I could see him at anything from 5/1 to 8/1. My guess is 7 or 8/1.
Also, how much will Pyro's race today end up effecting Big Brown and Colonel John's post time odds? Big Brown, who I previously thought would be 7/2, will probably be 5/2 or 3/1 now, which is way too short. Colonel John, who previously was probably around 6/1, could be as low as 9/2 now.
What I learned from the Blue Grass
Nothing. When Stevil is fourth and Cool Coal Man, Pyro and Big Truck run 9-10-11, you chuck the race.
As far as what it means in terms of earnings, Monba is obviously in now, as is Cowboy Cal. So much for the dream of a Pletcher-free Derby.. Kentucky Bear and Stevil don't have enough. Barring a few defections, Halo Najib is out. Visionaire's fifth probably got him in.. Cool Coal Man and Big Truck should be safe. Everyone else (save Pyro of course) is out.
As far as what it means in terms of earnings, Monba is obviously in now, as is Cowboy Cal. So much for the dream of a Pletcher-free Derby.. Kentucky Bear and Stevil don't have enough. Barring a few defections, Halo Najib is out. Visionaire's fifth probably got him in.. Cool Coal Man and Big Truck should be safe. Everyone else (save Pyro of course) is out.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Arkansas Derby preview
Same story.. Let's see who needs what. Except with the Arkansas Derby, second place pays enough ($200,000) to vault just about any of these horses into the Derby, so we'll widen the categories a bit.
First or Second Place Finish: Victory Pete (Barba), Tres Borrachos (Greely), Shekinah (Stewart), King's Silver Son (Asmussen), Gayego (Lobo), Isabull (Hobby), Liberty Bull (Amoss), Ablaze With Spirit (Asmussen), Jazz in the Park (Barnett)
Third Place Finish: Indian Sun (Hendricks), Golden Yank (Thomas), My Pal Charlie (Stall), Blackberry Road (Carroll), Z Fortune (Asmussen)
Slight Chance of Being Set With a Fourth: Z Fortune (Asmussen), My Pal Charlie (Stall), Blackberry Road (Carroll)
Already In: Nobody
With two more horses and no one set for the Derby without a placing, the Arkansas Derby should be way more of a thrilling clusterfuck than the Blue Grass. On with the cavalier and amateur analysis.
1.) VICTORY PETE (Barba/Potts) 12-1: Yeah, he got beaten by some good ones in the Sham, but he got away with murder on the front end and still offered little resistance. Same story in the Cal Derby.. Rail and Potts make his mission clear, but he'll be spitting the bit late.
2.) TRES BORRACHOS (Greely/Baze) 20-1: Went back to what he knows in El Camino Real and finished good third on the engine.. Figures are pretty darn weak though, with a high BSF of 83 and high TG of 6 1/2. Has legitimate distance questions too.. Pass.
12F.) SHEKINAH (Stewart/Emigh) 12-1: Coupled with Ablaze With Spirit and Jazz in the Park as part of "Field" betting interest. Been slowly improving for a while, and showed up big 3/16, taking N2L against 3+ in fast time.. TX-bred shouldn't be too far off with a repeat of last.
3.) KING'S SILVER SON (Asmussen/Quinonez) 6-1: Dead closer got just the trip he wanted in Rebel, earning figures (94 BSF, 4 1/2 TG) that may be a little inflated. Should get decent pace to run at again, but flattened out in only nine-furlong try.. Short price probably. No thanks.
4.) GAYEGO (Lobo/Smith) 5-2: Taking that kinda number on ANYBODY in this field is batshit crazy, especially this guy. Ran a 1:13 in winning San Pedro, but inclined to look at everything from late-January at SA with a skeptical eye.. First two-turn try was nothing special.. Maybe needed the race, but still, he's not bred to go far either. Looking elsewhere.
5.) ISABULL (Hobby/Doocy) 20-1: Not quite sure how King's Silver Son is 6-1 and this guy's 20-1.. Another one with questionable distance capabilities though, and while he was closer to the pace than King's Silver Son last out, he got the benefit of a rail trip. Not on top.
6.) MY PAL CHARLIE (Stall/Leparoux) 12-1: The fact that he was available for for a tag just 2 1/2 months ago raises flags, but some horses just need a little confidence.. Since then, he's been dynamite, and he's bred darn well.. Will face other speed though, so gonna make him prove himself again.
7.) BLACKBERRY ROAD (Carroll/Borel) 8-1: Though he earned just 87 BSF for La. Derby fourth, he was three wide around both turns and earned 3 1/2 TG.. Got no pace to run at in any of his FG races, but wasn't embarrassed in any of those races. Should get decent, if not blazing fractions to run into.. Time to see if he can be more than a parasite.
8.) LIBERTY BULL (Amoss/Razo) 6-1: Holy Bull gray has developed nicely through smart spacing, and Amoss is hot (10-of-12 in exacta at meet).. Already owns win over track, versatile sort, and always seems to fire. Chance for coming out party..
9.) GOLDEN YANK (Thomas/Sterling) 15-1: Probably needed the race when rather dull fourth in Rebel, but expecting improvement second back from break, and a return to one of his DED races would make him formidable.. Don't think he needs to come from the clouds either. 15-1? Mighty generous..
13F.) ABLAZE WITH SPIRIT (Asmussen/Berry) 12-1: Helligbrodt colt was no match for Liberty Bull at Sunland, but he's another who seems to be coming into his own and who always fires.. Local works can't hurt, and three for the price of one..
10.) Z FORTUNE (Asmussen/Albarado) 9-2: The horse to beat. Didn't give Pyro much of a run in La., but was compromised by being four wide on both turns.. Rebel stinker was too bad to believe, and he's worked well locally since. Not sure he wants to go this far and the post is miserable, but would rather bet him than Gayego..
11.) INDIAN SUN (Hendricks/Migliore) 12-1: Consistent colt has wrestled with the big boys many a time, but never seems to accomplish much when he does.. He was a suck-up second to El Gato Malo in San Rafael and a non-threatening fifth in the Cash Call Futurity. Should get splits to close at today, but he might just not be all that good.
14F.) JAZZ IN THE PARK (Barnett/Mena) 12-1: Comes here on top form, with two sharp closing victories at FG, but the waters get deeper here. Earned 4 1/2 TG for his last, which would make him a factor, and the post doesn't hurt him that much, but thinking he takes a step backward against this lot.
Selections
9 - Golden Yank
8 - Liberty Bull
12/Field - Shekinah, Ablaze With Spirit, Jazz in the Park
10 - Z Fortune
Alright buddies, I'm typed out for the night. I've sufficiently confused myself to the point where I had to flip back and forth through my mental dictionary to ferret out the word "sufficiently". Tomorrow should be lots of fun, with a much clearer Derby picture materializing at around 7 p.m. Eastern.
First or Second Place Finish: Victory Pete (Barba), Tres Borrachos (Greely), Shekinah (Stewart), King's Silver Son (Asmussen), Gayego (Lobo), Isabull (Hobby), Liberty Bull (Amoss), Ablaze With Spirit (Asmussen), Jazz in the Park (Barnett)
Third Place Finish: Indian Sun (Hendricks), Golden Yank (Thomas), My Pal Charlie (Stall), Blackberry Road (Carroll), Z Fortune (Asmussen)
Slight Chance of Being Set With a Fourth: Z Fortune (Asmussen), My Pal Charlie (Stall), Blackberry Road (Carroll)
Already In: Nobody
With two more horses and no one set for the Derby without a placing, the Arkansas Derby should be way more of a thrilling clusterfuck than the Blue Grass. On with the cavalier and amateur analysis.
1.) VICTORY PETE (Barba/Potts) 12-1: Yeah, he got beaten by some good ones in the Sham, but he got away with murder on the front end and still offered little resistance. Same story in the Cal Derby.. Rail and Potts make his mission clear, but he'll be spitting the bit late.
2.) TRES BORRACHOS (Greely/Baze) 20-1: Went back to what he knows in El Camino Real and finished good third on the engine.. Figures are pretty darn weak though, with a high BSF of 83 and high TG of 6 1/2. Has legitimate distance questions too.. Pass.
12F.) SHEKINAH (Stewart/Emigh) 12-1: Coupled with Ablaze With Spirit and Jazz in the Park as part of "Field" betting interest. Been slowly improving for a while, and showed up big 3/16, taking N2L against 3+ in fast time.. TX-bred shouldn't be too far off with a repeat of last.
3.) KING'S SILVER SON (Asmussen/Quinonez) 6-1: Dead closer got just the trip he wanted in Rebel, earning figures (94 BSF, 4 1/2 TG) that may be a little inflated. Should get decent pace to run at again, but flattened out in only nine-furlong try.. Short price probably. No thanks.
4.) GAYEGO (Lobo/Smith) 5-2: Taking that kinda number on ANYBODY in this field is batshit crazy, especially this guy. Ran a 1:13 in winning San Pedro, but inclined to look at everything from late-January at SA with a skeptical eye.. First two-turn try was nothing special.. Maybe needed the race, but still, he's not bred to go far either. Looking elsewhere.
5.) ISABULL (Hobby/Doocy) 20-1: Not quite sure how King's Silver Son is 6-1 and this guy's 20-1.. Another one with questionable distance capabilities though, and while he was closer to the pace than King's Silver Son last out, he got the benefit of a rail trip. Not on top.
6.) MY PAL CHARLIE (Stall/Leparoux) 12-1: The fact that he was available for for a tag just 2 1/2 months ago raises flags, but some horses just need a little confidence.. Since then, he's been dynamite, and he's bred darn well.. Will face other speed though, so gonna make him prove himself again.
7.) BLACKBERRY ROAD (Carroll/Borel) 8-1: Though he earned just 87 BSF for La. Derby fourth, he was three wide around both turns and earned 3 1/2 TG.. Got no pace to run at in any of his FG races, but wasn't embarrassed in any of those races. Should get decent, if not blazing fractions to run into.. Time to see if he can be more than a parasite.
8.) LIBERTY BULL (Amoss/Razo) 6-1: Holy Bull gray has developed nicely through smart spacing, and Amoss is hot (10-of-12 in exacta at meet).. Already owns win over track, versatile sort, and always seems to fire. Chance for coming out party..
9.) GOLDEN YANK (Thomas/Sterling) 15-1: Probably needed the race when rather dull fourth in Rebel, but expecting improvement second back from break, and a return to one of his DED races would make him formidable.. Don't think he needs to come from the clouds either. 15-1? Mighty generous..
13F.) ABLAZE WITH SPIRIT (Asmussen/Berry) 12-1: Helligbrodt colt was no match for Liberty Bull at Sunland, but he's another who seems to be coming into his own and who always fires.. Local works can't hurt, and three for the price of one..
10.) Z FORTUNE (Asmussen/Albarado) 9-2: The horse to beat. Didn't give Pyro much of a run in La., but was compromised by being four wide on both turns.. Rebel stinker was too bad to believe, and he's worked well locally since. Not sure he wants to go this far and the post is miserable, but would rather bet him than Gayego..
11.) INDIAN SUN (Hendricks/Migliore) 12-1: Consistent colt has wrestled with the big boys many a time, but never seems to accomplish much when he does.. He was a suck-up second to El Gato Malo in San Rafael and a non-threatening fifth in the Cash Call Futurity. Should get splits to close at today, but he might just not be all that good.
14F.) JAZZ IN THE PARK (Barnett/Mena) 12-1: Comes here on top form, with two sharp closing victories at FG, but the waters get deeper here. Earned 4 1/2 TG for his last, which would make him a factor, and the post doesn't hurt him that much, but thinking he takes a step backward against this lot.
Selections
9 - Golden Yank
8 - Liberty Bull
12/Field - Shekinah, Ablaze With Spirit, Jazz in the Park
10 - Z Fortune
Alright buddies, I'm typed out for the night. I've sufficiently confused myself to the point where I had to flip back and forth through my mental dictionary to ferret out the word "sufficiently". Tomorrow should be lots of fun, with a much clearer Derby picture materializing at around 7 p.m. Eastern.
Blue Grass preview
Firstly, let's look at this race from an earnings perspective, and assuming that all 12 entrants have Derby aspirations (not necessarily true, but for argument's sake), here's what each horse likely needs to get in the gate in Loovull:
First Place - Kentucky Bear (Baker), Stevil (Zito), Stone Bird (Lukas), Miner's Claim (Casse)
Second or Better - Cowboy Cal (Pletcher), Monba (Pletcher), Medjool (Hofmans)
Third or Fourth - Halo Najib (Romans)
Should Be Set, but a Placing Couldn't Hurt - Big Truck (Tagg), Visionaire (Matz)
In There Like Swimwear - Pyro (Asmussen), Cool Coal Man (Zito)
Now, with that in mind, let's have a glance at the Blue Grass, which I'm convinced would be a more formful surface than this Polytrack nonsense. (Note: Preview complete with Steve Byk trademarked nonspecifically suggestive double-dots!)
1.) COOL COAL MAN (Zito/Desormeaux) 4-1: Former speedball has learned to relax more and more, keeps drawing rail.. Wondering how much FOY took out of him, as he shows up 48 days later with just three works.. Doesn't need the earnings..
2.) KENTUCKY BEAR (Baker/Theriot) 50-1: M/L price seems like egregious overlay, considering this Mr. Greeley red was 4-1 in FOY. Didn't run a step that day, but got the experience and has a local work. Deserves another shot.
3.) COWBOY CAL (Pletcher/Velazquez) 15-1: Stonerside turfer picks weird time to jut onto Derby Trail.. Grass-to-synthetic won't be huge transition though and his figures are solid.. Good tactical foot and field isn't packed with speed..
4.) STEVIL (Zito/Bejarano) 30-1: Returned to top TG figure (5) in LA Derby. Usually slow morning horse perked up on Sunday with :59 and change breeze.. Wouldn't need to improve much to factor.
5.) MONBA (Pletcher/Prado) 15-1: Comes back to site of impressive maiden win. Ran solid fourth in Cash Call Futurity, but was a turkey in FOY. Even in chucking the race, his figures aren't that heft and he'll probably be underlaid.
6.) BIG TRUCK (Tagg/Coa) 6-1: NY-bred bay enjoyed perfect trip in TAM Derby, and another who won't be killing himself to take home top prize.. Looks to be moving right way though.
7.) PYRO (Asmussen/Bridgmohan) 1-1: Doesn't need anything out of the race other than a workout. Talent alone should get him a share, and wouldn't surprise as a winner, but he's the type of entrant you have to try and beat, right?
8.) STONE BIRD (Lukas/Lanerie) 50-1: DWL speed looks overmatched, even in this muddled field, but doesn't encounter many other frontrunners.. Stunk up the joint in lone KEE jaunt.
9.) MEDJOOL (Hofmans/Baze) 30-1: May have turned the corner, blowing away maidens at SA, then running deceptively large race in Lane's End. Was non-threatening third, but was six wide and five wide around turns, meriting TG fig of 2.. M/L overlay.
10.) MINER'S CLAIM (Casse/Husbands) 20-1: Lone hope for Canadian shipper is to go to lead and stay there.. Couldn't do that in Rushaway, even setting molasses fractions. Maybe he needed the race after 141 days off, but considering alternatives.. M/L underlay.
11.) HALO NAJIB (Romans/Gomez) 15-1: Zayat chestnut running in sixth graded stakes, but still needs earnings. Wide post doesn't help, but he showed ability to take back and close in Lane's End. Never was getting to Adriano though..
12.) VISIONAIRE (Matz/Lezcano) 6-1: Team Valor colt certainly has super closing kick, so if he gets pace to run at, look out. Interested to see how he responds after Gotham monsoon.. Texas Wildcatter came back terribly.. Lack of pace is a concern.
Selections that DON'T have Paul Anka's guarantee
3 - Cowboy Cal
2 - Kentucky Bear
7 - Pyro
9 - Medjool
First Place - Kentucky Bear (Baker), Stevil (Zito), Stone Bird (Lukas), Miner's Claim (Casse)
Second or Better - Cowboy Cal (Pletcher), Monba (Pletcher), Medjool (Hofmans)
Third or Fourth - Halo Najib (Romans)
Should Be Set, but a Placing Couldn't Hurt - Big Truck (Tagg), Visionaire (Matz)
In There Like Swimwear - Pyro (Asmussen), Cool Coal Man (Zito)
Now, with that in mind, let's have a glance at the Blue Grass, which I'm convinced would be a more formful surface than this Polytrack nonsense. (Note: Preview complete with Steve Byk trademarked nonspecifically suggestive double-dots!)
1.) COOL COAL MAN (Zito/Desormeaux) 4-1: Former speedball has learned to relax more and more, keeps drawing rail.. Wondering how much FOY took out of him, as he shows up 48 days later with just three works.. Doesn't need the earnings..
2.) KENTUCKY BEAR (Baker/Theriot) 50-1: M/L price seems like egregious overlay, considering this Mr. Greeley red was 4-1 in FOY. Didn't run a step that day, but got the experience and has a local work. Deserves another shot.
3.) COWBOY CAL (Pletcher/Velazquez) 15-1: Stonerside turfer picks weird time to jut onto Derby Trail.. Grass-to-synthetic won't be huge transition though and his figures are solid.. Good tactical foot and field isn't packed with speed..
4.) STEVIL (Zito/Bejarano) 30-1: Returned to top TG figure (5) in LA Derby. Usually slow morning horse perked up on Sunday with :59 and change breeze.. Wouldn't need to improve much to factor.
5.) MONBA (Pletcher/Prado) 15-1: Comes back to site of impressive maiden win. Ran solid fourth in Cash Call Futurity, but was a turkey in FOY. Even in chucking the race, his figures aren't that heft and he'll probably be underlaid.
6.) BIG TRUCK (Tagg/Coa) 6-1: NY-bred bay enjoyed perfect trip in TAM Derby, and another who won't be killing himself to take home top prize.. Looks to be moving right way though.
7.) PYRO (Asmussen/Bridgmohan) 1-1: Doesn't need anything out of the race other than a workout. Talent alone should get him a share, and wouldn't surprise as a winner, but he's the type of entrant you have to try and beat, right?
8.) STONE BIRD (Lukas/Lanerie) 50-1: DWL speed looks overmatched, even in this muddled field, but doesn't encounter many other frontrunners.. Stunk up the joint in lone KEE jaunt.
9.) MEDJOOL (Hofmans/Baze) 30-1: May have turned the corner, blowing away maidens at SA, then running deceptively large race in Lane's End. Was non-threatening third, but was six wide and five wide around turns, meriting TG fig of 2.. M/L overlay.
10.) MINER'S CLAIM (Casse/Husbands) 20-1: Lone hope for Canadian shipper is to go to lead and stay there.. Couldn't do that in Rushaway, even setting molasses fractions. Maybe he needed the race after 141 days off, but considering alternatives.. M/L underlay.
11.) HALO NAJIB (Romans/Gomez) 15-1: Zayat chestnut running in sixth graded stakes, but still needs earnings. Wide post doesn't help, but he showed ability to take back and close in Lane's End. Never was getting to Adriano though..
12.) VISIONAIRE (Matz/Lezcano) 6-1: Team Valor colt certainly has super closing kick, so if he gets pace to run at, look out. Interested to see how he responds after Gotham monsoon.. Texas Wildcatter came back terribly.. Lack of pace is a concern.
Selections that DON'T have Paul Anka's guarantee
3 - Cowboy Cal
2 - Kentucky Bear
7 - Pyro
9 - Medjool
Contender Profile: Cool Coal Man
[NOTE: We now have TG numbers for the Derby contenders, excluding races from this past weekend]
Derby Status: Going
Graded Earnings: $210,000
Future Odds: 20/1
Owner: Robert V. LaPenta
Trainer: Nicholas P. Zito
Runs in the Blue Grass this Saturday. Mineshaft colt appeared to be developing quite nicely at two, steadily increasing figures to a 90 BSF and 3 TG in an N1X victory at CD on 11/3. After that though, he was rank in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, forced a quick pace and faded to last. Time off to mature appears to have been the reason for a two-month break in the winter, and he's come back in a big way. Still a little too headstrong, he snagged an N2X at GP, but then really put it all together in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Breaking from the intimidating rail, he relaxed off the pace nicely, made a sweeping early move on the second turn and held off a resurgent Elysium Fields late. The effort earned him a BSF of 98 and a TG of 3, and you know how sheets guys love horses that return to their two-year-old top early in their sophomore season. Wish he wasn't running on the tires this weekend, because it would be awesome to see if he keeps developing, but considering that he isn't strapped for earnings and considering that one of the post parade ponies could win and it wouldn't be remotely jarring, not sure we'll learn much from his race. Then again, if he runs like crap, up goes his price for the Derby. Main thing that would be good to see is more relaxing off the pace if the fractions are quick. Mineshaft doesn't have a significant amount of data to determine his distance influence, but Rubiano is a slightly below average distance damsire. Cool Coal Man's second dam, however, was a half to champion fillies Northernette and Storm Bird, for whatever that's worth. Looms a very intriguing sleeper.
Derby Status: Going
Graded Earnings: $210,000
Future Odds: 20/1
Owner: Robert V. LaPenta
Trainer: Nicholas P. Zito
Runs in the Blue Grass this Saturday. Mineshaft colt appeared to be developing quite nicely at two, steadily increasing figures to a 90 BSF and 3 TG in an N1X victory at CD on 11/3. After that though, he was rank in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, forced a quick pace and faded to last. Time off to mature appears to have been the reason for a two-month break in the winter, and he's come back in a big way. Still a little too headstrong, he snagged an N2X at GP, but then really put it all together in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Breaking from the intimidating rail, he relaxed off the pace nicely, made a sweeping early move on the second turn and held off a resurgent Elysium Fields late. The effort earned him a BSF of 98 and a TG of 3, and you know how sheets guys love horses that return to their two-year-old top early in their sophomore season. Wish he wasn't running on the tires this weekend, because it would be awesome to see if he keeps developing, but considering that he isn't strapped for earnings and considering that one of the post parade ponies could win and it wouldn't be remotely jarring, not sure we'll learn much from his race. Then again, if he runs like crap, up goes his price for the Derby. Main thing that would be good to see is more relaxing off the pace if the fractions are quick. Mineshaft doesn't have a significant amount of data to determine his distance influence, but Rubiano is a slightly below average distance damsire. Cool Coal Man's second dam, however, was a half to champion fillies Northernette and Storm Bird, for whatever that's worth. Looms a very intriguing sleeper.
Contender Profile: Colonel John
[NOTE: Just so we're clear, these profiles are rudimentary as hell, and I know it. When the final TG and Ragozin numbers are published for the contenders and the field takes shape after the Lexington, these will all be revisited and updated]
Derby Status: Going
Graded Earnings: $660,000
Future Odds: 6/1
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC
Trainer: Eoin G. Harty
Tiznow bay has taken nary a misstep since narrow second in debut last summer at DMR, yet to finish out of the exacta in six tries, and asserting self as one of Derby favorites with dazzling finish to score in G1 SA Derby on Saturday. Though he's definitely got a super closing kick and can adjust to different pace scenarios, obvious questions loom. Of course there's the question of how he'll run over conventional dirt, and then comes the issue of slow figures on resume. Even his impressive SA Derby triumph earning a BSF of just 95, and as mediocre as this class has been, we're pretty sure it's going to take at least a 100 to win the Derby. With that said, many have learned just to chuck synthetic figures, although that might not be all that wise considering the relatively short price on this colt. Speaks to the quality of this year's field that a horse with figures of 74, 85, 82, 93, 86 and 95 would be the third choice in the final future pool, doesn't it? First generation, he's bred to run all day, with Tiznow providing above average distance influence and Turkoman throwing routers all over the place on the dam side. As a damsire, Turkoman gets an Average Winning Distance of 9.34 furlongs on dirt, 9.18 overall, both remarkably high numbers. This dude certainly doesn't run like a horse that would mind an extra furlong, and love the way Harty has brought him along distance-wise (six furlongs, seven, eight-and-a-half, eight-and-a-half, nine, nine). He's got much to prove, which makes him a dicey proposition at 6/1, but he clearly is of the upper echelon in this field.
Derby Status: Going
Graded Earnings: $660,000
Future Odds: 6/1
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC
Trainer: Eoin G. Harty
Tiznow bay has taken nary a misstep since narrow second in debut last summer at DMR, yet to finish out of the exacta in six tries, and asserting self as one of Derby favorites with dazzling finish to score in G1 SA Derby on Saturday. Though he's definitely got a super closing kick and can adjust to different pace scenarios, obvious questions loom. Of course there's the question of how he'll run over conventional dirt, and then comes the issue of slow figures on resume. Even his impressive SA Derby triumph earning a BSF of just 95, and as mediocre as this class has been, we're pretty sure it's going to take at least a 100 to win the Derby. With that said, many have learned just to chuck synthetic figures, although that might not be all that wise considering the relatively short price on this colt. Speaks to the quality of this year's field that a horse with figures of 74, 85, 82, 93, 86 and 95 would be the third choice in the final future pool, doesn't it? First generation, he's bred to run all day, with Tiznow providing above average distance influence and Turkoman throwing routers all over the place on the dam side. As a damsire, Turkoman gets an Average Winning Distance of 9.34 furlongs on dirt, 9.18 overall, both remarkably high numbers. This dude certainly doesn't run like a horse that would mind an extra furlong, and love the way Harty has brought him along distance-wise (six furlongs, seven, eight-and-a-half, eight-and-a-half, nine, nine). He's got much to prove, which makes him a dicey proposition at 6/1, but he clearly is of the upper echelon in this field.
Contender Profile: Bob Black Jack
Derby Status: Going
Graded Earnings: $180,000
Future Odds: 42/1
Owner: Jeff Harmon and Tim Kasparoff
Trainer: James M. Kasparoff
Pretty cool to see this $4,500 yearling purchase turn into a $442,925 earner after just seven starts and come a furious Colonel John rally away from winning the G1 SA Derby. The colt clearly has tons of early gas in a field with plenty of it, but it's encouraging that he calmly sat a length off of Coast Guard on Saturday and still had something left for the drive. What's discouraging is how he bore out at the top of the stretch and didn't look at all like a horse who wanted another furlong. Migliore also had to get after him quite a bit, making it seem as though they squeezed him hard to get that Derby-securing first or second money. While he may be getting the hang of this routing thing yet, his running style, the potentially taxing SA Derby effort and the extra furlong make the case for staying away.
Graded Earnings: $180,000
Future Odds: 42/1
Owner: Jeff Harmon and Tim Kasparoff
Trainer: James M. Kasparoff
Pretty cool to see this $4,500 yearling purchase turn into a $442,925 earner after just seven starts and come a furious Colonel John rally away from winning the G1 SA Derby. The colt clearly has tons of early gas in a field with plenty of it, but it's encouraging that he calmly sat a length off of Coast Guard on Saturday and still had something left for the drive. What's discouraging is how he bore out at the top of the stretch and didn't look at all like a horse who wanted another furlong. Migliore also had to get after him quite a bit, making it seem as though they squeezed him hard to get that Derby-securing first or second money. While he may be getting the hang of this routing thing yet, his running style, the potentially taxing SA Derby effort and the extra furlong make the case for staying away.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Synthetic surface deaths down, dart throwers rejoice
Well, I guess the evidence is overwhelming and indisputable now. Even though I hate horses and want more of them to die on the racetrack, even I can't argue with the facts. Synthetic tracks, the tire-recycling wave of the future, have now proven (read: not proven) to be unequivocally safer on thoroughbreds.
A study done in March on catastrophic injuries at racetracks by The Jockey Club and Grayson-Jockey Club Research Foundation found that there were 1.96 racehorse fatalities per 1,000 starts on dirt tracks and 1.95 per 1,000 on synthetic tracks. Though a small sample, eyebrows were raised by the results of the study, considering that, you know, synthetic tracks were supposed to be made of gumdrops and rainbows and shit like that.
Revision to that study though, shows that the numbers are actually 2.02 per 1,000 on dirt and 1.47 per 1,000 on synthetics. And although Mary Scollay, who oversaw the study, says that "it is important to remember that these fatality rates are just a snapshot in time from a less-than-statistically-significant number of tracks, and cannot be considered scientifically conclusive at this point", I'm sure that's just propagandistic jargon from the dirt-loving, puppy-killing, stodgy old fart contingent of horseplayers that's still out of touch enough to enjoy dirt racing.
If you don't think the synthetic advocate clowns will latch on to these numbers and shove them down the throat of us old-fashioned handicappers, you're sadly mistaken. People that have managed to attach themselves so devoutly to an unproven and haphazard "solution" to the dangers of thoroughbred racing won't be swayed by reason or mitigating factors. They want stats, and these will do quite nicely.
Personally, I think that sooner rather than later, it's just going to be Belmont, Saratoga and Churchill (at least as far as big-time tracks go) that run on pure dirt tracks, which is fine with me. Less places to waste my money. It sucks though, that the average handicapper isn't more discriminating with his or her dollar. I've heard tons of people complain about the unpredictability and turf-like performance of synthetic surfaces, but I certainly haven't seen many handle plunges to coincide with the ostensible outrage.
Anyway, so concludes my obligatory rant about the synthetic takeover and its devoted following of knee-jerk roulette lovers. Back to Derby talk as soon as possible.
Review: Racetrack Fatality Ratio Changes [Bloodhorse]
A study done in March on catastrophic injuries at racetracks by The Jockey Club and Grayson-Jockey Club Research Foundation found that there were 1.96 racehorse fatalities per 1,000 starts on dirt tracks and 1.95 per 1,000 on synthetic tracks. Though a small sample, eyebrows were raised by the results of the study, considering that, you know, synthetic tracks were supposed to be made of gumdrops and rainbows and shit like that.
Revision to that study though, shows that the numbers are actually 2.02 per 1,000 on dirt and 1.47 per 1,000 on synthetics. And although Mary Scollay, who oversaw the study, says that "it is important to remember that these fatality rates are just a snapshot in time from a less-than-statistically-significant number of tracks, and cannot be considered scientifically conclusive at this point", I'm sure that's just propagandistic jargon from the dirt-loving, puppy-killing, stodgy old fart contingent of horseplayers that's still out of touch enough to enjoy dirt racing.
If you don't think the synthetic advocate clowns will latch on to these numbers and shove them down the throat of us old-fashioned handicappers, you're sadly mistaken. People that have managed to attach themselves so devoutly to an unproven and haphazard "solution" to the dangers of thoroughbred racing won't be swayed by reason or mitigating factors. They want stats, and these will do quite nicely.
Personally, I think that sooner rather than later, it's just going to be Belmont, Saratoga and Churchill (at least as far as big-time tracks go) that run on pure dirt tracks, which is fine with me. Less places to waste my money. It sucks though, that the average handicapper isn't more discriminating with his or her dollar. I've heard tons of people complain about the unpredictability and turf-like performance of synthetic surfaces, but I certainly haven't seen many handle plunges to coincide with the ostensible outrage.
Anyway, so concludes my obligatory rant about the synthetic takeover and its devoted following of knee-jerk roulette lovers. Back to Derby talk as soon as possible.
Review: Racetrack Fatality Ratio Changes [Bloodhorse]
Contender Profile: Blackberry Road
Derby Status: Uncertain
Graded Earnings: $126,500
Future Odds: 46/1
Owner: Dogwood Stable
Trainer: David M. Carroll
Runs in the Arkansas Derby this Saturday. Tough to get all that excited about a colt still eligible for N1X tilts, but the usually conservative Carroll has had no problem throwing this Gone West son in with the wolves again and again, which should say something positive. Rallied strongly to be narrow second in G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, then didn't get the pace scenarios in New Orleans that would allow him to showcase his best. Still ran a solid second in the G3 LeComte, a traffic-laden fifth in the G3 Risen Star and a decent, if unspectacular fourth in the G2 Louisiana Derby. Certainly will get better pace to run at in the Derby, which makes him at least worth a second look, as does his family. His mom was a G3 winner and G1 placed around two turns, and he's a half to six-figure earners Vindication, True Reason, and Scipion, although he should probably be docked points for the latter sibling. He's clearly inferior to Pyro, and his KJC (85 BSF) and LeComte (90 BSF) figures might be a tad inflated, but gonna refrain from totally chucking him until he inevitably runs up the track Saturday.
Graded Earnings: $126,500
Future Odds: 46/1
Owner: Dogwood Stable
Trainer: David M. Carroll
Runs in the Arkansas Derby this Saturday. Tough to get all that excited about a colt still eligible for N1X tilts, but the usually conservative Carroll has had no problem throwing this Gone West son in with the wolves again and again, which should say something positive. Rallied strongly to be narrow second in G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, then didn't get the pace scenarios in New Orleans that would allow him to showcase his best. Still ran a solid second in the G3 LeComte, a traffic-laden fifth in the G3 Risen Star and a decent, if unspectacular fourth in the G2 Louisiana Derby. Certainly will get better pace to run at in the Derby, which makes him at least worth a second look, as does his family. His mom was a G3 winner and G1 placed around two turns, and he's a half to six-figure earners Vindication, True Reason, and Scipion, although he should probably be docked points for the latter sibling. He's clearly inferior to Pyro, and his KJC (85 BSF) and LeComte (90 BSF) figures might be a tad inflated, but gonna refrain from totally chucking him until he inevitably runs up the track Saturday.
Contender Profile: Big Truck
Derby Status: Uncertain
Graded Earnings: $194,500
Future Odds: 32/1
Owner: Eric Fein
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Excusing the two poor efforts by this NY-bred would make his sheet quite strong. Had a miserable trip in the G2 Remsen, then likely did not care for the slop or the wicked pace in the G2 Hutcheson. Ran very well in two TAM races, earning a 93 BSF for G3 Tampa Bay Derby score. Runs this Saturday in G1 Blue Grass, though not sure what that will say with it being run on the synthetic. Another one who has better distance breeding than one would think, with Hook and Ladder getting off to a good start as a sire across the board and Go for Gin providing decent stamina influence in limited shots as a damsire. Half-brother Logic Way had no trouble going long, albeit on turf. Future odds (32/1) seem about square, and will re-evaluate after Blue Grass.
Graded Earnings: $194,500
Future Odds: 32/1
Owner: Eric Fein
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Excusing the two poor efforts by this NY-bred would make his sheet quite strong. Had a miserable trip in the G2 Remsen, then likely did not care for the slop or the wicked pace in the G2 Hutcheson. Ran very well in two TAM races, earning a 93 BSF for G3 Tampa Bay Derby score. Runs this Saturday in G1 Blue Grass, though not sure what that will say with it being run on the synthetic. Another one who has better distance breeding than one would think, with Hook and Ladder getting off to a good start as a sire across the board and Go for Gin providing decent stamina influence in limited shots as a damsire. Half-brother Logic Way had no trouble going long, albeit on turf. Future odds (32/1) seem about square, and will re-evaluate after Blue Grass.
Contender Profile: Big Brown
Derby Status: Going
Graded Earnings: $600,000
Future Odds: 3/1
Owner: IEAH Stables and Paul Pompa, Jr., et al
Trainer: Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.
May be special horse in a very weak crop, will likely go postward favored, with nothing but outstanding wins on resume. Was as impressive as a two-year-old can be in debut, setting solid pace and drawing away to win by 11 1/4 on grass (90 BSF), coming home in :28.49 for his final five-sixteenths of a mile and a sixteenth. The fact that connections started him going long says something about his perceived distance capabilities, but the fact that he began on turf says something about his feet, and therein lies his major drawback. The colt very possibly has the most talent of this class, but may also be the most fragile of the lot, with notoriously bad feet. Still, he's done nothing but be spectacular since his debut, winning off-the-turfer by 12 3/4 in hand at GP (104 BSF), then going to the front and winning G1 Florida Derby from impossible post in 1:48 (106 BSF) while running greenly through the stretch. Desormeaux says he might be the best horse he's ever ridden, which should be taken with a grain of salt, but is worth putting out there. Distance pedigree is deceptively strong, with Nureyev dam influence balancing out the limitations of Boundary up top. Comparisons to Curlin's distant third in Derby abound with only three starts under belt, but this one has way more early speed than Curlin, making it more likely that he'll be able to work out his own trip. Obvious concern that he hasn't danced all the dances, making him ill prepared for the cavalry charge of the Derby, but throwing out a horse this talented against a field this terrible would be insanity. Will be interesting to see if he encounters any hiccups heading into the race. Enough questions loom to make him an underlay at 3/1 (future price), but barring a miserable draw or training setback, he's a must include in all exotics.
Graded Earnings: $600,000
Future Odds: 3/1
Owner: IEAH Stables and Paul Pompa, Jr., et al
Trainer: Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.
May be special horse in a very weak crop, will likely go postward favored, with nothing but outstanding wins on resume. Was as impressive as a two-year-old can be in debut, setting solid pace and drawing away to win by 11 1/4 on grass (90 BSF), coming home in :28.49 for his final five-sixteenths of a mile and a sixteenth. The fact that connections started him going long says something about his perceived distance capabilities, but the fact that he began on turf says something about his feet, and therein lies his major drawback. The colt very possibly has the most talent of this class, but may also be the most fragile of the lot, with notoriously bad feet. Still, he's done nothing but be spectacular since his debut, winning off-the-turfer by 12 3/4 in hand at GP (104 BSF), then going to the front and winning G1 Florida Derby from impossible post in 1:48 (106 BSF) while running greenly through the stretch. Desormeaux says he might be the best horse he's ever ridden, which should be taken with a grain of salt, but is worth putting out there. Distance pedigree is deceptively strong, with Nureyev dam influence balancing out the limitations of Boundary up top. Comparisons to Curlin's distant third in Derby abound with only three starts under belt, but this one has way more early speed than Curlin, making it more likely that he'll be able to work out his own trip. Obvious concern that he hasn't danced all the dances, making him ill prepared for the cavalry charge of the Derby, but throwing out a horse this talented against a field this terrible would be insanity. Will be interesting to see if he encounters any hiccups heading into the race. Enough questions loom to make him an underlay at 3/1 (future price), but barring a miserable draw or training setback, he's a must include in all exotics.
Contender Profile: Atoned
Status for Derby: Going
Graded Earnings: $125,000
Future Odds: 59/1
Owner: Dogwood Stable
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Had little chance to win over speed-biased HAW surface, but ran on decently to finish wide fourth. One of the more experienced Derby candidates with nine starts under belt. Gave up clear leads in stretch runs of G3 Tampa Bay Derby and G2 Remsen. Modestly bred and doesn't have outstanding distance pedigree, but doesn't strike as a horse to quit going ten panels. Will adjust to any pace scenario, and has more two-turn experience than most in field (seven races). Two three-year-old figures are both strong (93 BSF, 93 BSF). Appears to be a bit one-paced, which will likely preclude him from being a win candidate, but one-paced plodders can often suck up for third or fourth in the Derby. Odds should be juicy if 59-1 future price is any indication. Another one who is usable in lower rungs of exotic tickets.
Graded Earnings: $125,000
Future Odds: 59/1
Owner: Dogwood Stable
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Had little chance to win over speed-biased HAW surface, but ran on decently to finish wide fourth. One of the more experienced Derby candidates with nine starts under belt. Gave up clear leads in stretch runs of G3 Tampa Bay Derby and G2 Remsen. Modestly bred and doesn't have outstanding distance pedigree, but doesn't strike as a horse to quit going ten panels. Will adjust to any pace scenario, and has more two-turn experience than most in field (seven races). Two three-year-old figures are both strong (93 BSF, 93 BSF). Appears to be a bit one-paced, which will likely preclude him from being a win candidate, but one-paced plodders can often suck up for third or fourth in the Derby. Odds should be juicy if 59-1 future price is any indication. Another one who is usable in lower rungs of exotic tickets.
Contender Profile: Adriano
Status for Derby: Uncertain
Graded Earnings: $325,000
Future Odds: 38/1
Owner: Courtlandt Farms
Trainer: H. Graham Motion
Has perhaps the best distance pedigree in the field, but any horse by A.P. Indy out of a Mr. Prospector mare will be bred to do everything. Ran very modest figures as a two-year-old, but has run a pair of good ones at three, winning a turf N1X by 6 3/4 (90 BSF) and taking the G2 Lane's End (92 BSF) while wide. Six of seven starts have come on synthetic or grass. In only start on actual dirt, was beaten badly in G2 Fountain of Youth (70 BSF), put to a constant drive and didn't seem to handle the surface, although far outside post didn't help matters. Not sure that was enough to suggest that he can't run on dirt, but it certainly didn't inspire confidence in his versatility. Won Lane's End impressively, but likely didn't beat much. Would seem to be overmatched in the Derby at this point, but he's not one to throw out of the bottom of exotics, as one thing he does appear to possess is staying power.
Graded Earnings: $325,000
Future Odds: 38/1
Owner: Courtlandt Farms
Trainer: H. Graham Motion
Has perhaps the best distance pedigree in the field, but any horse by A.P. Indy out of a Mr. Prospector mare will be bred to do everything. Ran very modest figures as a two-year-old, but has run a pair of good ones at three, winning a turf N1X by 6 3/4 (90 BSF) and taking the G2 Lane's End (92 BSF) while wide. Six of seven starts have come on synthetic or grass. In only start on actual dirt, was beaten badly in G2 Fountain of Youth (70 BSF), put to a constant drive and didn't seem to handle the surface, although far outside post didn't help matters. Not sure that was enough to suggest that he can't run on dirt, but it certainly didn't inspire confidence in his versatility. Won Lane's End impressively, but likely didn't beat much. Would seem to be overmatched in the Derby at this point, but he's not one to throw out of the bottom of exotics, as one thing he does appear to possess is staying power.
Curing our collective blog ADD
Greetings. My name's Joe Bianca. If you remember my fine work at Saratoga: Diary of a Summer or the first season of Countdown to March, you might think I'm a pretty good blogger. After all, I do live with my parents and spend a considerable amount of time in my underwear. However, if you remember the mediocrity that was Saratoga Summer, Part Two and the second season of Countdown to March, you probably think I suddenly became too cool to blog.
Trust me, not the case. I've just come to begrudgingly accept the fact that unless one has absolutely nothing else going on in one's life, or unless one is getting paid to write a blog, it's pretty darn hard to consistently keep up one of these and make it interesting, insightful, funny, etc. It's also hard to be a daily reader of a certain blog, what with every organism that can tap keys in succession polluting the blogosphere.
Which is why I'm not challenging myself with this latest venture into nerd country. This is a specific purpose blog, solely about Kentucky Derby 134, which, if I can subtract correctly, is all of 23 days away. From now until then, I'll be doing Derby musings, analysis and dick jokes, because that's all I can thoughtfully write at this time of year. After May 3, this will probably be more dead air in the series of tubes. But let's have some fun in the meantime.
Trust me, not the case. I've just come to begrudgingly accept the fact that unless one has absolutely nothing else going on in one's life, or unless one is getting paid to write a blog, it's pretty darn hard to consistently keep up one of these and make it interesting, insightful, funny, etc. It's also hard to be a daily reader of a certain blog, what with every organism that can tap keys in succession polluting the blogosphere.
Which is why I'm not challenging myself with this latest venture into nerd country. This is a specific purpose blog, solely about Kentucky Derby 134, which, if I can subtract correctly, is all of 23 days away. From now until then, I'll be doing Derby musings, analysis and dick jokes, because that's all I can thoughtfully write at this time of year. After May 3, this will probably be more dead air in the series of tubes. But let's have some fun in the meantime.
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