Until next year.
Monday, June 9, 2008
Friday, June 6, 2008
Quick look at the undercard
Still have a bit of work to do, but here's my early take on the five stakes..
The first three (True North, Just a Game, Acorn) look fairly straightforward, and it's a shame that there's no pick four that includes any of these races, because there's an opportunity to make some cash. Benny the Bull appears the class of the True North, if like me, you're not a Thor's Echo believer off the layoff. Vacare and Lady of Venice loom the ones to beat in the Just a Game, but Bit of Whimsy and Criminologist certainly wouldn't be shocking winners. Looking forward to the Acorn, as Indian Blessing, the even-money morning line favorite, is vulnerable. Zaftig and Game Face both look like quality one-turn fillies, and the juvenile filly champ will probably be overrated, as she has been. The Woody Stephens is very tough, as J Be K looks SLIGHTLY the best, but if he doesn't win, there are four or five others capable of pulling it off. The Manhattan, however, is freaking impossible. I'd love for someone to talk me out of any of these horses: Shakis, Stalingrad, Out of Control, Strike a Deal, Pays to Dream, Proudinksy, Dancing Forever and Stream of Gold. The race is so wide open, I'm considering going eight-wide and leaving off one of the most accomplished turf horses of the decade (Better Talk Now).
Be back once more before Saturday morning.
The first three (True North, Just a Game, Acorn) look fairly straightforward, and it's a shame that there's no pick four that includes any of these races, because there's an opportunity to make some cash. Benny the Bull appears the class of the True North, if like me, you're not a Thor's Echo believer off the layoff. Vacare and Lady of Venice loom the ones to beat in the Just a Game, but Bit of Whimsy and Criminologist certainly wouldn't be shocking winners. Looking forward to the Acorn, as Indian Blessing, the even-money morning line favorite, is vulnerable. Zaftig and Game Face both look like quality one-turn fillies, and the juvenile filly champ will probably be overrated, as she has been. The Woody Stephens is very tough, as J Be K looks SLIGHTLY the best, but if he doesn't win, there are four or five others capable of pulling it off. The Manhattan, however, is freaking impossible. I'd love for someone to talk me out of any of these horses: Shakis, Stalingrad, Out of Control, Strike a Deal, Pays to Dream, Proudinksy, Dancing Forever and Stream of Gold. The race is so wide open, I'm considering going eight-wide and leaving off one of the most accomplished turf horses of the decade (Better Talk Now).
Be back once more before Saturday morning.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Belmont Stakes preview
Here goes.. Not much time to waste, as there's a terrific undercard to get to work on, and everything that could be said about the big race has been said. I won't have any time to go over the undercard horse-by-horse, but each of the five stakes will be discussed before Saturday morning, for sure!
1.) BIG BROWN (Rick Dutrow, Jr./Kent Desormeaux) 2-5
Boundary colt comes back home for chance at immortality, with an unremarkable field standing in his way and a quarter crack that may or may not be a significant hindrance. Certainly done nothing wrong in five-race career, winning by 4 3/4+ lengths in every start. What's more, he's shown a remarkable tractability, running on and off the lead, and breaking from inside and extreme outside posts. His last three races have been superb. Beyer from last was somewhat light, but he was barely allowed to run, and his TG for the race (-1) was still plenty strong. The distance doesn't auger to be a problem for him, as he's smart enough to relax until his pilot says go. Two major hurdles are: Casino Drive, and that nasty split in the hoof. Not an equine expert, but it appears pretty painful, and said before the Preakness that he'd be a bad bet at 1-5 in here. With that said, it certainly didn't hurt him enough to prevent a picture perfect five-furlong blowout. Hoof specialist Ian McKinlay calls the crack a "4" on a scale of 1-10, for whatever that's worth. The prevailing sentiment is that it's a minor problem, if one at all. However, any strike against him is a significant one in this, a 12-furlong race in his third start in five weeks, against a potentially outstanding challenger. And of course, any injury raises red flags for a horse that had to be laid off six months for foot issues. He's still, obviously, the most likely winner, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him torch this field en route to the first Triple Crown in 30 years. It wouldn't be shocking, though, to see him flame out, as so many others have despite seeming invincible. Think long and hard before you single him.
2.) GUADALCANAL (Fred Seitz/Javier Castellano) 50-1
Surprise late entrant comes into this weak field off the best race of his life, a narrow miss going this distance on the CD turf. Can't totally blame connections for taking a shot at a suck-up third or fourth, but he's been very mediocre thus far, and he would need a major improvement even sniff the board. For the birds.
3.) MACHO AGAIN (Dallas Stewart/Garret Gomez) 20-1
West Point gray nabbed second in the Preakness at an overlaid 39-1, but his figures for that run (92 BSF, 2 1/2 TG) were decidedly weak, and he didn't make up any serious ground on a geared down Big Brown late. He did, however, close well after encountering trouble at the top of the stretch. Doubt he gets better with more distance though, and still believe his future lies as a one-turn closer. Certainly among the more talented horses in the field, so wouldn't totally exclude him, but humbly suggest using him sparingly underneath.
4.) DENIS OF CORK (David Carroll/Robby Albarado) 12-1
Blaze-faced son of Harlan's Holiday has shown flashes in his young career, and came up for third at 27-1 in the Derby. Points for that, as he was the only horse to close into what was a surprisingly modest pace. However, he was no threat to the top two finishers, and he certainly benefited from being on the rail around both turns. One wonders why his connections didn't choose the two-hole if that was the plan, but that's neither here nor there. Sure to lure some considerable dough being a closing third in a 10-furlong race, but not certain that he's all that much better than he showed. After all, his only other big race came with a completely perfect setup in the G3 Southwest. Will likely be closer to the chase this time around, which means more opportunity for trouble. Definitely is a candidate to fill out the trifecta, but at 12-1, he reeks of an underlay. Will try to beat him out of the triple.
5.) CASINO DRIVE (Kazuo Fujisawa/Edgar Prado) 7-2
The mystery horse, no matter how you feel about him, certainly looms as the second most likely winner in this race, and he may or may not prove to be something special. His win in the G2 Peter Pan was pretty freaking great, any way you slice it. He came into the race with one published work, broke like crap, then inhaled the field en route to a 5 3/4-length triumph. To be fair, once he recovered from the slow break, he lucked into a pretty perfect trip. At the same time, he likely will be better off for having the race, and he was straight as an arrow in the stretch, never looking tired. Definitely bred for the extra three furlongs as well, he should give the big horse his sternest challenge yet. The pick to complete a very boring exacta.
6.) DA' TARA (Nick Zito/Alan Garcia) 30-1
The likely pacesetter in the race has certainly stepped up his game since being trounced by the big horse in the G1 Fla. Derby, running a solid fifth in the fast $117,000 Derby Trial and backing that up with a game second in the $100,000 Barbaro three weeks ago at PIM. The waters, of course, get way deeper this time around, and his only hope is likely to go to the front and hope for :25 and :50 up top. Even then, he'll probably offer little resistance once the real running begins. Would only consider if the track came up wet.
7.) TALE OF EKATI (Barclay Tagg/Eibar Coa) 20-1
Tale of the Cat bay has run some very respectable races in his career, and his G1 Wood win was pretty impressive, considering the pace. However, he seems to be getting slower late the longer he goes, and he's really being pressed this time around. Finished an inconsequential fourth at 37-1 in the Derby, and he's quite the trooper, but this seems like a tall task for a horse that would likely appreciate a return to one turn. Will probably benefit being close to a slow pace, but doubt that's enough to get him more than fourth.
8.) ANAK NAKAL (Nick Zito/Julien Leparoux) 30-1
Yet to run a very fast race either on Beyers (87 high) or TGs (2 3/4 high), and he seems to run a similar race every time out. Avoid the pace and pass some tired horses late to finish a non-threatening fourth or fifth. Can't say he won't do it this time too, but he's too slow to matter for anything more.
9.) READY'S ECHO (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) 30-1
Ready's Image colt had the look of a Belmont horse in his debut last year, flying from 25 lengths out of it to be second to Z Humor at SAR. Seriously, he's turned into a useful little closer, and logic dictates that the further he goes, the more effective he'll be. However, there isn't much pace in the race, which could force him too close to the front, which is death on a deep closer like him. Never stops running, so he's definitely got a shot to crack the trifecta, but his price will likely determine his usage. At 30-1 or higher, he's worth including, but if he drifts down near 20-1, he's a pass.
10.) ICABAD CRANE (H. Graham Motion/Jeremy Rose) 20-1
NY-bred has run well in his last two, winning the $100,000 Frederico Tesio and running third in the Preakness despite having to close into moderate to slow clips in both heats. He's similar to the colt to his inside in that he looks the part of a 12-furlong horse, but he'll probably get caught too close to a slow pace. With that said, if the pace is quicker than expected, he's the one that would probably be the freshest in that last quarter-mile, considering his distance breeding. Like him underneath.
SELECTIONS
1.) BIG BROWN - Hurdles are significant, but certainly the most likely winner
5.) CASINO DRIVE - Not to be taken lightly, should press the big horse late
10.) ICABAD CRANE - Most likely to benefit if pace is quicker than expected
1.) BIG BROWN (Rick Dutrow, Jr./Kent Desormeaux) 2-5
Boundary colt comes back home for chance at immortality, with an unremarkable field standing in his way and a quarter crack that may or may not be a significant hindrance. Certainly done nothing wrong in five-race career, winning by 4 3/4+ lengths in every start. What's more, he's shown a remarkable tractability, running on and off the lead, and breaking from inside and extreme outside posts. His last three races have been superb. Beyer from last was somewhat light, but he was barely allowed to run, and his TG for the race (-1) was still plenty strong. The distance doesn't auger to be a problem for him, as he's smart enough to relax until his pilot says go. Two major hurdles are: Casino Drive, and that nasty split in the hoof. Not an equine expert, but it appears pretty painful, and said before the Preakness that he'd be a bad bet at 1-5 in here. With that said, it certainly didn't hurt him enough to prevent a picture perfect five-furlong blowout. Hoof specialist Ian McKinlay calls the crack a "4" on a scale of 1-10, for whatever that's worth. The prevailing sentiment is that it's a minor problem, if one at all. However, any strike against him is a significant one in this, a 12-furlong race in his third start in five weeks, against a potentially outstanding challenger. And of course, any injury raises red flags for a horse that had to be laid off six months for foot issues. He's still, obviously, the most likely winner, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him torch this field en route to the first Triple Crown in 30 years. It wouldn't be shocking, though, to see him flame out, as so many others have despite seeming invincible. Think long and hard before you single him.
2.) GUADALCANAL (Fred Seitz/Javier Castellano) 50-1
Surprise late entrant comes into this weak field off the best race of his life, a narrow miss going this distance on the CD turf. Can't totally blame connections for taking a shot at a suck-up third or fourth, but he's been very mediocre thus far, and he would need a major improvement even sniff the board. For the birds.
3.) MACHO AGAIN (Dallas Stewart/Garret Gomez) 20-1
West Point gray nabbed second in the Preakness at an overlaid 39-1, but his figures for that run (92 BSF, 2 1/2 TG) were decidedly weak, and he didn't make up any serious ground on a geared down Big Brown late. He did, however, close well after encountering trouble at the top of the stretch. Doubt he gets better with more distance though, and still believe his future lies as a one-turn closer. Certainly among the more talented horses in the field, so wouldn't totally exclude him, but humbly suggest using him sparingly underneath.
4.) DENIS OF CORK (David Carroll/Robby Albarado) 12-1
Blaze-faced son of Harlan's Holiday has shown flashes in his young career, and came up for third at 27-1 in the Derby. Points for that, as he was the only horse to close into what was a surprisingly modest pace. However, he was no threat to the top two finishers, and he certainly benefited from being on the rail around both turns. One wonders why his connections didn't choose the two-hole if that was the plan, but that's neither here nor there. Sure to lure some considerable dough being a closing third in a 10-furlong race, but not certain that he's all that much better than he showed. After all, his only other big race came with a completely perfect setup in the G3 Southwest. Will likely be closer to the chase this time around, which means more opportunity for trouble. Definitely is a candidate to fill out the trifecta, but at 12-1, he reeks of an underlay. Will try to beat him out of the triple.
5.) CASINO DRIVE (Kazuo Fujisawa/Edgar Prado) 7-2
The mystery horse, no matter how you feel about him, certainly looms as the second most likely winner in this race, and he may or may not prove to be something special. His win in the G2 Peter Pan was pretty freaking great, any way you slice it. He came into the race with one published work, broke like crap, then inhaled the field en route to a 5 3/4-length triumph. To be fair, once he recovered from the slow break, he lucked into a pretty perfect trip. At the same time, he likely will be better off for having the race, and he was straight as an arrow in the stretch, never looking tired. Definitely bred for the extra three furlongs as well, he should give the big horse his sternest challenge yet. The pick to complete a very boring exacta.
6.) DA' TARA (Nick Zito/Alan Garcia) 30-1
The likely pacesetter in the race has certainly stepped up his game since being trounced by the big horse in the G1 Fla. Derby, running a solid fifth in the fast $117,000 Derby Trial and backing that up with a game second in the $100,000 Barbaro three weeks ago at PIM. The waters, of course, get way deeper this time around, and his only hope is likely to go to the front and hope for :25 and :50 up top. Even then, he'll probably offer little resistance once the real running begins. Would only consider if the track came up wet.
7.) TALE OF EKATI (Barclay Tagg/Eibar Coa) 20-1
Tale of the Cat bay has run some very respectable races in his career, and his G1 Wood win was pretty impressive, considering the pace. However, he seems to be getting slower late the longer he goes, and he's really being pressed this time around. Finished an inconsequential fourth at 37-1 in the Derby, and he's quite the trooper, but this seems like a tall task for a horse that would likely appreciate a return to one turn. Will probably benefit being close to a slow pace, but doubt that's enough to get him more than fourth.
8.) ANAK NAKAL (Nick Zito/Julien Leparoux) 30-1
Yet to run a very fast race either on Beyers (87 high) or TGs (2 3/4 high), and he seems to run a similar race every time out. Avoid the pace and pass some tired horses late to finish a non-threatening fourth or fifth. Can't say he won't do it this time too, but he's too slow to matter for anything more.
9.) READY'S ECHO (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) 30-1
Ready's Image colt had the look of a Belmont horse in his debut last year, flying from 25 lengths out of it to be second to Z Humor at SAR. Seriously, he's turned into a useful little closer, and logic dictates that the further he goes, the more effective he'll be. However, there isn't much pace in the race, which could force him too close to the front, which is death on a deep closer like him. Never stops running, so he's definitely got a shot to crack the trifecta, but his price will likely determine his usage. At 30-1 or higher, he's worth including, but if he drifts down near 20-1, he's a pass.
10.) ICABAD CRANE (H. Graham Motion/Jeremy Rose) 20-1
NY-bred has run well in his last two, winning the $100,000 Frederico Tesio and running third in the Preakness despite having to close into moderate to slow clips in both heats. He's similar to the colt to his inside in that he looks the part of a 12-furlong horse, but he'll probably get caught too close to a slow pace. With that said, if the pace is quicker than expected, he's the one that would probably be the freshest in that last quarter-mile, considering his distance breeding. Like him underneath.
SELECTIONS
1.) BIG BROWN - Hurdles are significant, but certainly the most likely winner
5.) CASINO DRIVE - Not to be taken lightly, should press the big horse late
10.) ICABAD CRANE - Most likely to benefit if pace is quicker than expected
Monday, June 2, 2008
Less than five days away
Back after a hectic few weeks for an even more hectic week. The field is about set, and starting Wednesday, this blog will once again be flooded with updates.. Hope you folks planning on joining the 120,000 or so of us in Elmont on Saturday didn't get sodomized for tickets, because general admission works just fine, believe me. I'll be darting all around the track during the day, hanging out with good friend and At the Races host Steve Byk and a few other buddies, likely arriving soon after the gates open (8:30 a.m.). Should be a fun afternoon, and though this, of course, can rapidly change, the weather looks promising. Will be back on Wednesday when the Saturday card is drawn for a rundown of the Stakes, then Thursday and Friday will be spent perusing the undercard. Saturday's the big day. Be back shortly.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Well, here we are
I'll try to refrain some going nuts with the soaring prose that "experts" (douches) like Pat Forde elect to overdose on during Triple Crown season, but as a racing fan, I can't suppress the palpable buzz inside of me that materialized the second Big Brown crossed the wire on Saturday. There's only one stretch of time in the racing world that can eclipse the weeks leading up to the Derby in terms of excitement and tension, and it's the 21 days between Baltimore and Elmont when a Triple Crown is possible. Boy am I glad I decided to keep this blog going following the Derby.
Without talking too much about myself, what I'll say is this: as a relatively new racing fan, I've only been to one Belmont in which a TC was on the line, Smarty Jones' crack at it in '04. I'll never forget the day, because the drama was unsurpassed by any sporting event I've ever watched or been to. The slow, steady buildup to Smarty's run at history was both unbearable and sensational, and by the time 6:30 rolled around, I could barely stand still. We all know what happened after that, and though I was pretty crestfallen at the time to be denied witness to the first TC in 26 years (also because I had singled Smarty in the Pick 6, though it wasn't paying much), I soon got over it, and realized what a fucking amazingly dramatic event had just gone down.
The three Belmonts since have been excruciatingly boring. Relegated to just a Grade I at an almost totally irrelevant distance, the Belmont is just another leg in pick fours and sixes in years where the Crown is safe. The media coverage is perfunctory, and the attendants are mostly those who got screwed on hopeful seating investments made before the Preakness was run.
This year though, the drama will be back full bore, and as someone who's sat through the last three intrinsically boring Belmonts, I'm psyched. I generally hate people, I hate long lines at the betting windows, I hate the overhyping of horses that win the first two legs (Big Brown's very good, but if you think we're going three weeks without the mainstream media making Secretariat references, you're crazy), and I hate the clusterfuck that is getting to and from the Stakes with 120,000+ in attendance. But for ten freaking dollars, you can say "you were there", either when Big Brown snapped the 30-year drought or Casino Drive played spoiler to the horse that had never been tested.
If you don't like Big Brown, aren't you something. You seem to have an aversion to confirmed cheaters and douchebag self-important Wall Street types. You're so unique. You know what? Shut the fuck up, and get over it. You're deluding yourself if you think Big Brown is any different from Smarty Jones or Afleet Alex. Sure, the connections were somewhat cuddlier (although the Cash is King guys are reportedly toolsheds as well), but they had no intention on campaigning their horse if he won the Triple Crown. Chappy Chapman and Cash is King just didn't come out and say so. Get mad at Iavarone for saying that Big Brown won't run at four all you want, but at least he's being honest about it, and not lying through his teeth at every turn to placate people like you.
The landscape has changed. Horses who win more than one TC race are not going to stick around, so with that in mind, either quit following the sport, or soak up these next three weeks as much as possible. There are certainly times to complain about the disappearing three-year-old that continues to race after winning TC races, but this shouldn't be one of them.
Racing gets very little time to truly be in the spotlight, and if you really love the sport, these next three weeks should be fun for you. Lots, even. Root for Casino Drive if you must. I certainly wouldn't mind seeing him upset the big horse. But one way or another, I strongly urge that you get excited.
Without talking too much about myself, what I'll say is this: as a relatively new racing fan, I've only been to one Belmont in which a TC was on the line, Smarty Jones' crack at it in '04. I'll never forget the day, because the drama was unsurpassed by any sporting event I've ever watched or been to. The slow, steady buildup to Smarty's run at history was both unbearable and sensational, and by the time 6:30 rolled around, I could barely stand still. We all know what happened after that, and though I was pretty crestfallen at the time to be denied witness to the first TC in 26 years (also because I had singled Smarty in the Pick 6, though it wasn't paying much), I soon got over it, and realized what a fucking amazingly dramatic event had just gone down.
The three Belmonts since have been excruciatingly boring. Relegated to just a Grade I at an almost totally irrelevant distance, the Belmont is just another leg in pick fours and sixes in years where the Crown is safe. The media coverage is perfunctory, and the attendants are mostly those who got screwed on hopeful seating investments made before the Preakness was run.
This year though, the drama will be back full bore, and as someone who's sat through the last three intrinsically boring Belmonts, I'm psyched. I generally hate people, I hate long lines at the betting windows, I hate the overhyping of horses that win the first two legs (Big Brown's very good, but if you think we're going three weeks without the mainstream media making Secretariat references, you're crazy), and I hate the clusterfuck that is getting to and from the Stakes with 120,000+ in attendance. But for ten freaking dollars, you can say "you were there", either when Big Brown snapped the 30-year drought or Casino Drive played spoiler to the horse that had never been tested.
If you don't like Big Brown, aren't you something. You seem to have an aversion to confirmed cheaters and douchebag self-important Wall Street types. You're so unique. You know what? Shut the fuck up, and get over it. You're deluding yourself if you think Big Brown is any different from Smarty Jones or Afleet Alex. Sure, the connections were somewhat cuddlier (although the Cash is King guys are reportedly toolsheds as well), but they had no intention on campaigning their horse if he won the Triple Crown. Chappy Chapman and Cash is King just didn't come out and say so. Get mad at Iavarone for saying that Big Brown won't run at four all you want, but at least he's being honest about it, and not lying through his teeth at every turn to placate people like you.
The landscape has changed. Horses who win more than one TC race are not going to stick around, so with that in mind, either quit following the sport, or soak up these next three weeks as much as possible. There are certainly times to complain about the disappearing three-year-old that continues to race after winning TC races, but this shouldn't be one of them.
Racing gets very little time to truly be in the spotlight, and if you really love the sport, these next three weeks should be fun for you. Lots, even. Root for Casino Drive if you must. I certainly wouldn't mind seeing him upset the big horse. But one way or another, I strongly urge that you get excited.
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Preakness preview
133RD PREAKNESS STAKES
1.) MACHO AGAIN (Dallas Stewart/Julien Leparoux) 20-1
Promising West Point colt finally broke out in most recent start, closing being a moderate pace to take the $115,000 Derby Trial at 6-1. Steps back into graded company, and his previous two forays into these waters were no great shakes. He was a mediocre sixth in the G3 Lecomte at FG, then was beaten double digits in the G2 Lane's End. Those were also his only tries around two turns, which he attempts again in here. Derby Trial figure (99 BSF, 0 TG) seems a bit high, with the first, third and fifth-place finishers running drastic new tops. Even if his numbers are to be believed, there's still the nagging question over whether or not he's a two-turn horse or a one-turn closer. He did have excuses in his two-turn flops, with the Lane's End being run over polytrack, and the Lecomte being a paceless race. Thing is, the clip figures to be average in this as well. Guess the amount of inclusion depends on his price. At 25-1 or so, he's worth a flier in the bottom of exotics, but if he drifts down near 15-1, he might be a good play against.
2.) TRES BORRACHOS (Beau Greely/Tyler Baze) 30-1
Gelded son of Ecton Park has gotten good since turning three, running a deceptively good fourth in the $150,000 California Derby, then a decent third at 10-1 in the G3 El Camino Real Derby, and stepping up to come back for third at 37-1 after setting strong fractions in the G2 Arkansas Derby. Doesn't necessarily need the lead, but he does his best running near the front, and drawing inside, he'll probably have to gun to get a good position. Though the pace appeared fast in the AR Derby, I'm of the belief that the track sped up and became more speed-favoring by the time the big race came around, so I've substantially downgraded the numbers he got (95 BSF, 4 TG), which aren't all that strong to begin with. Also not sure he's quick enough to run with Big Brown, which could discourage him early. Not for me.
3.) ICABAD CRANE (Graham Motion/Jeremy Rose) 30-1
Lightly raced NY-bred came from the clouds to win first two starts, then suffered first defeat when forced close to a crawl in the $100,000 Rushaway, but rebounded in the $100,000 Frederico Tesio over this track, closing into a super slow early pace to win by a head. That looks more impressive, considering that the horse he bested by a head, Mint Lane, came back to run a bang-up second to Belmont contender Casino Drive after setting a much quicker pace last Saturday. This colt's pedigree and running style suggest that the extra sixteenth will be nothing if not an aid, and though his figures are slow (highs: 87 BSF, 5 1/2 TG), he could be ready for enough improvement to get him into the trifecta at a price. We've also seen these local horses jump up and run big races in the Preakness before. Using underneath.
4.) YANKEE BRAVO (Paddy Gallagher/Alex Solis) 15-1
Late running $17,000 purchase made a name for himself out west with a very impressive last to first win in the Cal Derby, despite traffic trouble and despite a slow pace in front of him. When he stepped into graded company in the G2 Louisiana Derby, he again didn't get fractions to run at, but he didn't disgrace himself, running third at 12-1 with an 89 BSF (4 TG). In the G1 SA Derby, however, he was a bit of a disappointment, being unable to make up serious ground and running an inconsequential fourth. Connections wisely decided to skip the Derby and run here, but I'm not sure the pace of the race and tendencies of the track suit him. He's certainly got some talent, but he's gonna need to raise his game to be a true factor in here, and I'm not sure that more distance is what he wants. Add to that the somewhat low morning line price, and he's not one that I'll be trying to get into exotics.
5.) BEHINDATTHEBAR (Todd Pletcher/David Flores) 10-1
Forest Wildcat bay broke through after a handy allowance score, closing from the clouds to get up in the G2 Lexington, and he's certainly got some strong races behind that. Problem is, that race set up perfectly for him, and as I addressed previously, his figures for that race (99 BSF, 1 1/2 TG) should be called into question. His only time on dirt, he ran a very mediocre fifth in the El Camino Real. Got a bad habit of drifting in, which could mean he's still a little bit green, and he was on his wrong lead for much of the stretch in the Lexington. That doesn't auger well for him in this contentious field that likely won't hand the race to him on a silver platter. His pedigree doesn't say that another eighth will necessarily be to his liking, either. Definitely dangerous, but at 10-1 or so, I'll pass.
6.) RACECAR RHAPSODY (Ken McPeek/Robby Albarado) 30-1
Not quite sure how this guy is thrice the morning line price of Behindatthebar, considering he was beaten only two lengths by that rival, but if that guess is right, it makes a previously unexciting prospect a little bit interesting at least. Son of Tale of the Cat has gotten a little unlucky in a few of his races, catching dead rails in his last two and breaking a million lengths behind the field in his debut. Yet he's never been out of the superfecta in six races. Think he'll be the most likely of the Lexington runners to appreciate the extra distance as well, although his lack of early speed is a definite concern. Also must note that his two big figures, 95 in the Lex and 93 in the Delta Jackpot, both reek of phoniness. His highest TG figure (3 3/4) makes him a fringe contender as well. Still, I wouldn't bet against him cracking the super, and maybe even sneaking into the tri with a clean trip, so at anything near the M/L, he's worth an inclusion.
7.) BIG BROWN (Rick Dutrow, Jr./Kent Desormeaux) 1-2
Was wildly impressive in his Derby win, and this is coming from one who was a skeptic before the race. The greenness was gone, he was as professional as could be, and he's still yet to retreat at all in any of his four races, opening up from the stretch call in each one. Breaking from the far outside stall last time out, he was pretty much forced to lay off the pace, which didn't bother him, but he may find himself on the lead in this race, which he definitely won't have a problem with (see: Derby, Florida). His bad feet are obviously a concern coming back on two weeks' rest, but he appears to have had no training setbacks, and even if he regresses a few lengths, he's still an easy winner on paper in here. Think he'll be a good play against at Belmont, but can't see him getting beaten in Baltimore.
8.) KENTUCKY BEAR (Reade Baker/Jamie Theriot) 15-1
Chestnut burst onto the scene with a rousing maiden victory, scoring by 6 1/2 at 10-1, earning big figures (93 BSF, 3 TG) on 1/21. His first graded try wasn't as hot, running a dull seventh in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Word is he bled through Lasix that day, so perhaps too much was asked of him early. He was given some time off, and returned with a solid third at 27-1 in the G1 Blue Grass, nearly returning to his maiden figures (90 BSF, 3 3/4 TG). Excluded from the Derby, which may have been a blessing in disguise, because now he shows up with five weeks' rest and a trio of strong five-furlong works. Still looked a little green in the Blue Grass, so perhaps he's been given a chance to mature a little more as well. Not too sure that the extra sixteenth is what he wants, but he's got the midpack running style that could put him in an advantageous position early. Don't think he's ready to take down the big horse, but he may be the most attractive exacta filler on the board.
9.) STEVIL (Nick Zito/John Velazquez) 30-1
Previously okay roan has run two large races since adding blinkers, beaten only 5 1/2 by Pyro in the LA Derby, then running a closing fourth at 68-1 in the Blue Grass. Earned decent enough figures (88 BSF, 4 TG) for that last effort, and with a couple of fast breezes in the last few weeks, he should be at peak form. Just not sure how good that peak form is, and though he's run well his last two, he wasn't really a threat in either race. The waters only get deeper here, and though it wouldn't be a total shock to see him crack the super again, anything more than that would be at least startling.
10.) RILEY TUCKER (Bill Mott/Edgar Prado) 30-1
Zayat runner probably put in the best effort of the three Lexington horses last out, running pretty close to a sizzling pace and still holding on to run third at 10-1, so one can forgive that "hung late" chart comment. Still, his only win came loose on the lead setting a modest pace in his debut, and what's really good with that last breeze? Can't really work much slower than 1:06 for five furlongs. Perhaps Mott is trying to get him to relax a little more, but then why put the blinkers back on in the first place? One of the few in here that may be able to keep in touch with Big Brown early, and he probably won't have too many problems with the added eighth, but he just seems to run up or down to his competition. Wouldn't completely toss him from trifecta and superfecta wagers, as he's got a tendency to hang around late.
11.) GIANT MOON (Rick Schosberg/Ramon Dominguez) 30-1
Giant's Causeway homebred reeled off four straight wins to start career before a disastrous 47-length drubbing in the rainy and foggy G3 Gotham. Not sure why people were so reluctant to draw a line through that run, and he bounced back with a fine race, running fourth in the G1 Wood Memorial at 26-1. He ran a very similar, if not quite as good, race to Tale of Ekati, making a premature move into the teeth of a fast pace and holding on for dear life late. 'Ekati came back to run a decent fourth in the Derby, so not sure what says this colt can't do the same kind of thing in the Preakness. Problem is, the wide post doesn't help matters, and his work on Tuesday may have been a little too fast for four days out of the race. Will still be using him at the bottom of exotics, but not super enthusiastically considering those two factors.
12.) GAYEGO (Paulo Lobo/Mike Smith) 8-1
This'll be the third time on this blog that I rail against this breathtaking colt, but he keeps looking like an underlay to me. He got away with murder when second in the G2 San Felipe, and still tried to get out late, then caught a speed-favoring track in the AR Derby, and again, got out late, earning figures (103 BSF, -1/4 TG) that look phony. In the Derby, he had a miserable trip, but his rankness was his own fault, and that's what got him into much of his trouble. Considering his very questionable distance pedigree, it seems like they're pushing it quite a bit with this guy, and that's before factoring in the back-and-forth cross-country flights over the past six weeks. Now he's got a terrible post to boot and he likely doesn't have the speed to get himself into good position before the turn. Plus he'll probably be overbet by people looking to take a stand versus the chalk. Totally against him.
13.) HEY BYRN (Eddie Plesa, Jr./C.C. Lopez) 20-1
Ran one of the most impressive races of the year by a three-year-old on 2/10, blowing away a good N1X field by 14 1/2, earning figures of 97 and -1 for the effort. Next race, he aired by six in an N2X, getting a 90 and 4 1/4 for that one. His G1 Florida Derby run was pretty bad, but he likely was compromised by a terrible break, and he bounced back with a workmanlike score in the G3 Holy Bull at this distance. Still, his one huge race came around one turn, as did his better races at two. One thing that's tough not to like about him is he never quits running, even if he's taken out of his element, and he's got a very respectable record of 8/4-2-0-2. The post is awful though, and I can't shake the feeling that he's better around one turn, so I'd use him at the bottom of superfectas only.
SELECTIONS
7.) BIG BROWN - No value, but appears poles the best, and admittedly rooting for TC try in three weeks
8.) KENTUCKY BEAR - Could be getting good at the right time, though distance concerns loom
3.) ICABAD CRANE - Closed into molasses pace to run down Mint Lane, rates a chance
Strategy in playing the race? I'll probably be singling Big Brown in the late pick four (which features only a 14% takeout and will get most of my attention), then keying Kentucky Bear in second and third for some small trifecta wagers.
1.) MACHO AGAIN (Dallas Stewart/Julien Leparoux) 20-1
Promising West Point colt finally broke out in most recent start, closing being a moderate pace to take the $115,000 Derby Trial at 6-1. Steps back into graded company, and his previous two forays into these waters were no great shakes. He was a mediocre sixth in the G3 Lecomte at FG, then was beaten double digits in the G2 Lane's End. Those were also his only tries around two turns, which he attempts again in here. Derby Trial figure (99 BSF, 0 TG) seems a bit high, with the first, third and fifth-place finishers running drastic new tops. Even if his numbers are to be believed, there's still the nagging question over whether or not he's a two-turn horse or a one-turn closer. He did have excuses in his two-turn flops, with the Lane's End being run over polytrack, and the Lecomte being a paceless race. Thing is, the clip figures to be average in this as well. Guess the amount of inclusion depends on his price. At 25-1 or so, he's worth a flier in the bottom of exotics, but if he drifts down near 15-1, he might be a good play against.
2.) TRES BORRACHOS (Beau Greely/Tyler Baze) 30-1
Gelded son of Ecton Park has gotten good since turning three, running a deceptively good fourth in the $150,000 California Derby, then a decent third at 10-1 in the G3 El Camino Real Derby, and stepping up to come back for third at 37-1 after setting strong fractions in the G2 Arkansas Derby. Doesn't necessarily need the lead, but he does his best running near the front, and drawing inside, he'll probably have to gun to get a good position. Though the pace appeared fast in the AR Derby, I'm of the belief that the track sped up and became more speed-favoring by the time the big race came around, so I've substantially downgraded the numbers he got (95 BSF, 4 TG), which aren't all that strong to begin with. Also not sure he's quick enough to run with Big Brown, which could discourage him early. Not for me.
3.) ICABAD CRANE (Graham Motion/Jeremy Rose) 30-1
Lightly raced NY-bred came from the clouds to win first two starts, then suffered first defeat when forced close to a crawl in the $100,000 Rushaway, but rebounded in the $100,000 Frederico Tesio over this track, closing into a super slow early pace to win by a head. That looks more impressive, considering that the horse he bested by a head, Mint Lane, came back to run a bang-up second to Belmont contender Casino Drive after setting a much quicker pace last Saturday. This colt's pedigree and running style suggest that the extra sixteenth will be nothing if not an aid, and though his figures are slow (highs: 87 BSF, 5 1/2 TG), he could be ready for enough improvement to get him into the trifecta at a price. We've also seen these local horses jump up and run big races in the Preakness before. Using underneath.
4.) YANKEE BRAVO (Paddy Gallagher/Alex Solis) 15-1
Late running $17,000 purchase made a name for himself out west with a very impressive last to first win in the Cal Derby, despite traffic trouble and despite a slow pace in front of him. When he stepped into graded company in the G2 Louisiana Derby, he again didn't get fractions to run at, but he didn't disgrace himself, running third at 12-1 with an 89 BSF (4 TG). In the G1 SA Derby, however, he was a bit of a disappointment, being unable to make up serious ground and running an inconsequential fourth. Connections wisely decided to skip the Derby and run here, but I'm not sure the pace of the race and tendencies of the track suit him. He's certainly got some talent, but he's gonna need to raise his game to be a true factor in here, and I'm not sure that more distance is what he wants. Add to that the somewhat low morning line price, and he's not one that I'll be trying to get into exotics.
5.) BEHINDATTHEBAR (Todd Pletcher/David Flores) 10-1
Forest Wildcat bay broke through after a handy allowance score, closing from the clouds to get up in the G2 Lexington, and he's certainly got some strong races behind that. Problem is, that race set up perfectly for him, and as I addressed previously, his figures for that race (99 BSF, 1 1/2 TG) should be called into question. His only time on dirt, he ran a very mediocre fifth in the El Camino Real. Got a bad habit of drifting in, which could mean he's still a little bit green, and he was on his wrong lead for much of the stretch in the Lexington. That doesn't auger well for him in this contentious field that likely won't hand the race to him on a silver platter. His pedigree doesn't say that another eighth will necessarily be to his liking, either. Definitely dangerous, but at 10-1 or so, I'll pass.
6.) RACECAR RHAPSODY (Ken McPeek/Robby Albarado) 30-1
Not quite sure how this guy is thrice the morning line price of Behindatthebar, considering he was beaten only two lengths by that rival, but if that guess is right, it makes a previously unexciting prospect a little bit interesting at least. Son of Tale of the Cat has gotten a little unlucky in a few of his races, catching dead rails in his last two and breaking a million lengths behind the field in his debut. Yet he's never been out of the superfecta in six races. Think he'll be the most likely of the Lexington runners to appreciate the extra distance as well, although his lack of early speed is a definite concern. Also must note that his two big figures, 95 in the Lex and 93 in the Delta Jackpot, both reek of phoniness. His highest TG figure (3 3/4) makes him a fringe contender as well. Still, I wouldn't bet against him cracking the super, and maybe even sneaking into the tri with a clean trip, so at anything near the M/L, he's worth an inclusion.
7.) BIG BROWN (Rick Dutrow, Jr./Kent Desormeaux) 1-2
Was wildly impressive in his Derby win, and this is coming from one who was a skeptic before the race. The greenness was gone, he was as professional as could be, and he's still yet to retreat at all in any of his four races, opening up from the stretch call in each one. Breaking from the far outside stall last time out, he was pretty much forced to lay off the pace, which didn't bother him, but he may find himself on the lead in this race, which he definitely won't have a problem with (see: Derby, Florida). His bad feet are obviously a concern coming back on two weeks' rest, but he appears to have had no training setbacks, and even if he regresses a few lengths, he's still an easy winner on paper in here. Think he'll be a good play against at Belmont, but can't see him getting beaten in Baltimore.
8.) KENTUCKY BEAR (Reade Baker/Jamie Theriot) 15-1
Chestnut burst onto the scene with a rousing maiden victory, scoring by 6 1/2 at 10-1, earning big figures (93 BSF, 3 TG) on 1/21. His first graded try wasn't as hot, running a dull seventh in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Word is he bled through Lasix that day, so perhaps too much was asked of him early. He was given some time off, and returned with a solid third at 27-1 in the G1 Blue Grass, nearly returning to his maiden figures (90 BSF, 3 3/4 TG). Excluded from the Derby, which may have been a blessing in disguise, because now he shows up with five weeks' rest and a trio of strong five-furlong works. Still looked a little green in the Blue Grass, so perhaps he's been given a chance to mature a little more as well. Not too sure that the extra sixteenth is what he wants, but he's got the midpack running style that could put him in an advantageous position early. Don't think he's ready to take down the big horse, but he may be the most attractive exacta filler on the board.
9.) STEVIL (Nick Zito/John Velazquez) 30-1
Previously okay roan has run two large races since adding blinkers, beaten only 5 1/2 by Pyro in the LA Derby, then running a closing fourth at 68-1 in the Blue Grass. Earned decent enough figures (88 BSF, 4 TG) for that last effort, and with a couple of fast breezes in the last few weeks, he should be at peak form. Just not sure how good that peak form is, and though he's run well his last two, he wasn't really a threat in either race. The waters only get deeper here, and though it wouldn't be a total shock to see him crack the super again, anything more than that would be at least startling.
10.) RILEY TUCKER (Bill Mott/Edgar Prado) 30-1
Zayat runner probably put in the best effort of the three Lexington horses last out, running pretty close to a sizzling pace and still holding on to run third at 10-1, so one can forgive that "hung late" chart comment. Still, his only win came loose on the lead setting a modest pace in his debut, and what's really good with that last breeze? Can't really work much slower than 1:06 for five furlongs. Perhaps Mott is trying to get him to relax a little more, but then why put the blinkers back on in the first place? One of the few in here that may be able to keep in touch with Big Brown early, and he probably won't have too many problems with the added eighth, but he just seems to run up or down to his competition. Wouldn't completely toss him from trifecta and superfecta wagers, as he's got a tendency to hang around late.
11.) GIANT MOON (Rick Schosberg/Ramon Dominguez) 30-1
Giant's Causeway homebred reeled off four straight wins to start career before a disastrous 47-length drubbing in the rainy and foggy G3 Gotham. Not sure why people were so reluctant to draw a line through that run, and he bounced back with a fine race, running fourth in the G1 Wood Memorial at 26-1. He ran a very similar, if not quite as good, race to Tale of Ekati, making a premature move into the teeth of a fast pace and holding on for dear life late. 'Ekati came back to run a decent fourth in the Derby, so not sure what says this colt can't do the same kind of thing in the Preakness. Problem is, the wide post doesn't help matters, and his work on Tuesday may have been a little too fast for four days out of the race. Will still be using him at the bottom of exotics, but not super enthusiastically considering those two factors.
12.) GAYEGO (Paulo Lobo/Mike Smith) 8-1
This'll be the third time on this blog that I rail against this breathtaking colt, but he keeps looking like an underlay to me. He got away with murder when second in the G2 San Felipe, and still tried to get out late, then caught a speed-favoring track in the AR Derby, and again, got out late, earning figures (103 BSF, -1/4 TG) that look phony. In the Derby, he had a miserable trip, but his rankness was his own fault, and that's what got him into much of his trouble. Considering his very questionable distance pedigree, it seems like they're pushing it quite a bit with this guy, and that's before factoring in the back-and-forth cross-country flights over the past six weeks. Now he's got a terrible post to boot and he likely doesn't have the speed to get himself into good position before the turn. Plus he'll probably be overbet by people looking to take a stand versus the chalk. Totally against him.
13.) HEY BYRN (Eddie Plesa, Jr./C.C. Lopez) 20-1
Ran one of the most impressive races of the year by a three-year-old on 2/10, blowing away a good N1X field by 14 1/2, earning figures of 97 and -1 for the effort. Next race, he aired by six in an N2X, getting a 90 and 4 1/4 for that one. His G1 Florida Derby run was pretty bad, but he likely was compromised by a terrible break, and he bounced back with a workmanlike score in the G3 Holy Bull at this distance. Still, his one huge race came around one turn, as did his better races at two. One thing that's tough not to like about him is he never quits running, even if he's taken out of his element, and he's got a very respectable record of 8/4-2-0-2. The post is awful though, and I can't shake the feeling that he's better around one turn, so I'd use him at the bottom of superfectas only.
SELECTIONS
7.) BIG BROWN - No value, but appears poles the best, and admittedly rooting for TC try in three weeks
8.) KENTUCKY BEAR - Could be getting good at the right time, though distance concerns loom
3.) ICABAD CRANE - Closed into molasses pace to run down Mint Lane, rates a chance
Strategy in playing the race? I'll probably be singling Big Brown in the late pick four (which features only a 14% takeout and will get most of my attention), then keying Kentucky Bear in second and third for some small trifecta wagers.
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