Hey Byrn, Ichabad Crane, Riley Tucker join fray; Lex talk

Macho Again is going to the Ohio Derby, while Harlem Rocker's status will be up in the air until after he breezes "sometime this weekend". Pretty amazing how quickly this went from being a seven-horse race to a field of 12, possibly 13. As I said before, this lessens the pressure on Stronach/Pletcher to enter, but it also means that regardless of their decision, this race won't be a total walkover.

For me, the key to this race will be chucking or using sparingly the Lexington runners. Chances are, because of that big figure in the Lex, Behindatthebar, Riley Tucker and Racecar Rhapsody will all find themselves between 10-1 and 20-1, which is too low for me. My guess is Behindatthebar will be 10-1, with Riley Tucker and Racecar Rhapsody closer to 20-1. While the Lexington number made sense on its surface (1:42 was significantly faster than the other 8 1/2-furlong races that day), there were just too many jumps in form for me to totally believe it.

It's very similar to my feelings on the AR Derby, where the first four finishers all managed to run career tops. Z Fortune ran 10th in the Derby, and Gayego ran 17th. Clearly not an indisputable condemnation of the race, but not an endorsement either.

In the Lex, Behindatthebar won with a 99 Beyer (previous high 89), Samba Rooster ran a huge second with a 97 (previous high 96, but that was around one turn), Riley Tucker ran third with a 95 (previous high 85), Racecar Rhapsody ran fourth with a 95 (previous high 93, but that was in the Delta Jackpot, whose figure looks more questionable by the day, RR's next high was 87). Further back, Big Glen ran a 93 (previous high 86) and Tomcito ran a 92 (previous high 85). So one can come to two conclusions when analyzing the Lexington figure: Either six horses ran career bests, or the figure is inflated.

I take synthetic figures with a grain of salt as it is, but this one looks doubly dubious with all of those form jumps. You don't need me to tell you that synthetic races are often run like turf races, with the final time being directly influenced by the early pace. Considering the wicked fractions in the Lexington (:22.78, :45.21, 1:09.48), chances were that they wouldn't come home in 1:44.

For the record, here are the approximate internal splits for the three Preakness horses from the Lexington:

Behindatthebar - :25.24, :47.50, 1:11.12, 1:36.04, 1:42.14
Riley Tucker - :23.76, :45.95, 1:10.05, 1:35.63, 1:42.39
Racecar Rhapsody - :25.24, :47.99, 1:11.77, 1:36.53, 1:42.47

Eight days out of the Preakness, it's way early to be forming an opinion, but, depending on price, the horses that (so far) interest me most to fill out an exacta behind Big Brown are, in order, Kentucky Bear, Recapturetheglory and Giant Moon. I think all three of them ran very well in their respective most recent races, and they'll likely be in good striking position, alongside the big horse, just off the flank of Tres Borrachos. If I can get $35 or so back on a Big Brown/Kentucky Bear exacta, that might be my play of the race.