I'll try to refrain some going nuts with the soaring prose that "experts" (douches) like Pat Forde elect to overdose on during Triple Crown season, but as a racing fan, I can't suppress the palpable buzz inside of me that materialized the second Big Brown crossed the wire on Saturday. There's only one stretch of time in the racing world that can eclipse the weeks leading up to the Derby in terms of excitement and tension, and it's the 21 days between Baltimore and Elmont when a Triple Crown is possible. Boy am I glad I decided to keep this blog going following the Derby.
Without talking too much about myself, what I'll say is this: as a relatively new racing fan, I've only been to one Belmont in which a TC was on the line, Smarty Jones' crack at it in '04. I'll never forget the day, because the drama was unsurpassed by any sporting event I've ever watched or been to. The slow, steady buildup to Smarty's run at history was both unbearable and sensational, and by the time 6:30 rolled around, I could barely stand still. We all know what happened after that, and though I was pretty crestfallen at the time to be denied witness to the first TC in 26 years (also because I had singled Smarty in the Pick 6, though it wasn't paying much), I soon got over it, and realized what a fucking amazingly dramatic event had just gone down.
The three Belmonts since have been excruciatingly boring. Relegated to just a Grade I at an almost totally irrelevant distance, the Belmont is just another leg in pick fours and sixes in years where the Crown is safe. The media coverage is perfunctory, and the attendants are mostly those who got screwed on hopeful seating investments made before the Preakness was run.
This year though, the drama will be back full bore, and as someone who's sat through the last three intrinsically boring Belmonts, I'm psyched. I generally hate people, I hate long lines at the betting windows, I hate the overhyping of horses that win the first two legs (Big Brown's very good, but if you think we're going three weeks without the mainstream media making Secretariat references, you're crazy), and I hate the clusterfuck that is getting to and from the Stakes with 120,000+ in attendance. But for ten freaking dollars, you can say "you were there", either when Big Brown snapped the 30-year drought or Casino Drive played spoiler to the horse that had never been tested.
If you don't like Big Brown, aren't you something. You seem to have an aversion to confirmed cheaters and douchebag self-important Wall Street types. You're so unique. You know what? Shut the fuck up, and get over it. You're deluding yourself if you think Big Brown is any different from Smarty Jones or Afleet Alex. Sure, the connections were somewhat cuddlier (although the Cash is King guys are reportedly toolsheds as well), but they had no intention on campaigning their horse if he won the Triple Crown. Chappy Chapman and Cash is King just didn't come out and say so. Get mad at Iavarone for saying that Big Brown won't run at four all you want, but at least he's being honest about it, and not lying through his teeth at every turn to placate people like you.
The landscape has changed. Horses who win more than one TC race are not going to stick around, so with that in mind, either quit following the sport, or soak up these next three weeks as much as possible. There are certainly times to complain about the disappearing three-year-old that continues to race after winning TC races, but this shouldn't be one of them.
Racing gets very little time to truly be in the spotlight, and if you really love the sport, these next three weeks should be fun for you. Lots, even. Root for Casino Drive if you must. I certainly wouldn't mind seeing him upset the big horse. But one way or another, I strongly urge that you get excited.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Preakness preview
133RD PREAKNESS STAKES
1.) MACHO AGAIN (Dallas Stewart/Julien Leparoux) 20-1
Promising West Point colt finally broke out in most recent start, closing being a moderate pace to take the $115,000 Derby Trial at 6-1. Steps back into graded company, and his previous two forays into these waters were no great shakes. He was a mediocre sixth in the G3 Lecomte at FG, then was beaten double digits in the G2 Lane's End. Those were also his only tries around two turns, which he attempts again in here. Derby Trial figure (99 BSF, 0 TG) seems a bit high, with the first, third and fifth-place finishers running drastic new tops. Even if his numbers are to be believed, there's still the nagging question over whether or not he's a two-turn horse or a one-turn closer. He did have excuses in his two-turn flops, with the Lane's End being run over polytrack, and the Lecomte being a paceless race. Thing is, the clip figures to be average in this as well. Guess the amount of inclusion depends on his price. At 25-1 or so, he's worth a flier in the bottom of exotics, but if he drifts down near 15-1, he might be a good play against.
2.) TRES BORRACHOS (Beau Greely/Tyler Baze) 30-1
Gelded son of Ecton Park has gotten good since turning three, running a deceptively good fourth in the $150,000 California Derby, then a decent third at 10-1 in the G3 El Camino Real Derby, and stepping up to come back for third at 37-1 after setting strong fractions in the G2 Arkansas Derby. Doesn't necessarily need the lead, but he does his best running near the front, and drawing inside, he'll probably have to gun to get a good position. Though the pace appeared fast in the AR Derby, I'm of the belief that the track sped up and became more speed-favoring by the time the big race came around, so I've substantially downgraded the numbers he got (95 BSF, 4 TG), which aren't all that strong to begin with. Also not sure he's quick enough to run with Big Brown, which could discourage him early. Not for me.
3.) ICABAD CRANE (Graham Motion/Jeremy Rose) 30-1
Lightly raced NY-bred came from the clouds to win first two starts, then suffered first defeat when forced close to a crawl in the $100,000 Rushaway, but rebounded in the $100,000 Frederico Tesio over this track, closing into a super slow early pace to win by a head. That looks more impressive, considering that the horse he bested by a head, Mint Lane, came back to run a bang-up second to Belmont contender Casino Drive after setting a much quicker pace last Saturday. This colt's pedigree and running style suggest that the extra sixteenth will be nothing if not an aid, and though his figures are slow (highs: 87 BSF, 5 1/2 TG), he could be ready for enough improvement to get him into the trifecta at a price. We've also seen these local horses jump up and run big races in the Preakness before. Using underneath.
4.) YANKEE BRAVO (Paddy Gallagher/Alex Solis) 15-1
Late running $17,000 purchase made a name for himself out west with a very impressive last to first win in the Cal Derby, despite traffic trouble and despite a slow pace in front of him. When he stepped into graded company in the G2 Louisiana Derby, he again didn't get fractions to run at, but he didn't disgrace himself, running third at 12-1 with an 89 BSF (4 TG). In the G1 SA Derby, however, he was a bit of a disappointment, being unable to make up serious ground and running an inconsequential fourth. Connections wisely decided to skip the Derby and run here, but I'm not sure the pace of the race and tendencies of the track suit him. He's certainly got some talent, but he's gonna need to raise his game to be a true factor in here, and I'm not sure that more distance is what he wants. Add to that the somewhat low morning line price, and he's not one that I'll be trying to get into exotics.
5.) BEHINDATTHEBAR (Todd Pletcher/David Flores) 10-1
Forest Wildcat bay broke through after a handy allowance score, closing from the clouds to get up in the G2 Lexington, and he's certainly got some strong races behind that. Problem is, that race set up perfectly for him, and as I addressed previously, his figures for that race (99 BSF, 1 1/2 TG) should be called into question. His only time on dirt, he ran a very mediocre fifth in the El Camino Real. Got a bad habit of drifting in, which could mean he's still a little bit green, and he was on his wrong lead for much of the stretch in the Lexington. That doesn't auger well for him in this contentious field that likely won't hand the race to him on a silver platter. His pedigree doesn't say that another eighth will necessarily be to his liking, either. Definitely dangerous, but at 10-1 or so, I'll pass.
6.) RACECAR RHAPSODY (Ken McPeek/Robby Albarado) 30-1
Not quite sure how this guy is thrice the morning line price of Behindatthebar, considering he was beaten only two lengths by that rival, but if that guess is right, it makes a previously unexciting prospect a little bit interesting at least. Son of Tale of the Cat has gotten a little unlucky in a few of his races, catching dead rails in his last two and breaking a million lengths behind the field in his debut. Yet he's never been out of the superfecta in six races. Think he'll be the most likely of the Lexington runners to appreciate the extra distance as well, although his lack of early speed is a definite concern. Also must note that his two big figures, 95 in the Lex and 93 in the Delta Jackpot, both reek of phoniness. His highest TG figure (3 3/4) makes him a fringe contender as well. Still, I wouldn't bet against him cracking the super, and maybe even sneaking into the tri with a clean trip, so at anything near the M/L, he's worth an inclusion.
7.) BIG BROWN (Rick Dutrow, Jr./Kent Desormeaux) 1-2
Was wildly impressive in his Derby win, and this is coming from one who was a skeptic before the race. The greenness was gone, he was as professional as could be, and he's still yet to retreat at all in any of his four races, opening up from the stretch call in each one. Breaking from the far outside stall last time out, he was pretty much forced to lay off the pace, which didn't bother him, but he may find himself on the lead in this race, which he definitely won't have a problem with (see: Derby, Florida). His bad feet are obviously a concern coming back on two weeks' rest, but he appears to have had no training setbacks, and even if he regresses a few lengths, he's still an easy winner on paper in here. Think he'll be a good play against at Belmont, but can't see him getting beaten in Baltimore.
8.) KENTUCKY BEAR (Reade Baker/Jamie Theriot) 15-1
Chestnut burst onto the scene with a rousing maiden victory, scoring by 6 1/2 at 10-1, earning big figures (93 BSF, 3 TG) on 1/21. His first graded try wasn't as hot, running a dull seventh in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Word is he bled through Lasix that day, so perhaps too much was asked of him early. He was given some time off, and returned with a solid third at 27-1 in the G1 Blue Grass, nearly returning to his maiden figures (90 BSF, 3 3/4 TG). Excluded from the Derby, which may have been a blessing in disguise, because now he shows up with five weeks' rest and a trio of strong five-furlong works. Still looked a little green in the Blue Grass, so perhaps he's been given a chance to mature a little more as well. Not too sure that the extra sixteenth is what he wants, but he's got the midpack running style that could put him in an advantageous position early. Don't think he's ready to take down the big horse, but he may be the most attractive exacta filler on the board.
9.) STEVIL (Nick Zito/John Velazquez) 30-1
Previously okay roan has run two large races since adding blinkers, beaten only 5 1/2 by Pyro in the LA Derby, then running a closing fourth at 68-1 in the Blue Grass. Earned decent enough figures (88 BSF, 4 TG) for that last effort, and with a couple of fast breezes in the last few weeks, he should be at peak form. Just not sure how good that peak form is, and though he's run well his last two, he wasn't really a threat in either race. The waters only get deeper here, and though it wouldn't be a total shock to see him crack the super again, anything more than that would be at least startling.
10.) RILEY TUCKER (Bill Mott/Edgar Prado) 30-1
Zayat runner probably put in the best effort of the three Lexington horses last out, running pretty close to a sizzling pace and still holding on to run third at 10-1, so one can forgive that "hung late" chart comment. Still, his only win came loose on the lead setting a modest pace in his debut, and what's really good with that last breeze? Can't really work much slower than 1:06 for five furlongs. Perhaps Mott is trying to get him to relax a little more, but then why put the blinkers back on in the first place? One of the few in here that may be able to keep in touch with Big Brown early, and he probably won't have too many problems with the added eighth, but he just seems to run up or down to his competition. Wouldn't completely toss him from trifecta and superfecta wagers, as he's got a tendency to hang around late.
11.) GIANT MOON (Rick Schosberg/Ramon Dominguez) 30-1
Giant's Causeway homebred reeled off four straight wins to start career before a disastrous 47-length drubbing in the rainy and foggy G3 Gotham. Not sure why people were so reluctant to draw a line through that run, and he bounced back with a fine race, running fourth in the G1 Wood Memorial at 26-1. He ran a very similar, if not quite as good, race to Tale of Ekati, making a premature move into the teeth of a fast pace and holding on for dear life late. 'Ekati came back to run a decent fourth in the Derby, so not sure what says this colt can't do the same kind of thing in the Preakness. Problem is, the wide post doesn't help matters, and his work on Tuesday may have been a little too fast for four days out of the race. Will still be using him at the bottom of exotics, but not super enthusiastically considering those two factors.
12.) GAYEGO (Paulo Lobo/Mike Smith) 8-1
This'll be the third time on this blog that I rail against this breathtaking colt, but he keeps looking like an underlay to me. He got away with murder when second in the G2 San Felipe, and still tried to get out late, then caught a speed-favoring track in the AR Derby, and again, got out late, earning figures (103 BSF, -1/4 TG) that look phony. In the Derby, he had a miserable trip, but his rankness was his own fault, and that's what got him into much of his trouble. Considering his very questionable distance pedigree, it seems like they're pushing it quite a bit with this guy, and that's before factoring in the back-and-forth cross-country flights over the past six weeks. Now he's got a terrible post to boot and he likely doesn't have the speed to get himself into good position before the turn. Plus he'll probably be overbet by people looking to take a stand versus the chalk. Totally against him.
13.) HEY BYRN (Eddie Plesa, Jr./C.C. Lopez) 20-1
Ran one of the most impressive races of the year by a three-year-old on 2/10, blowing away a good N1X field by 14 1/2, earning figures of 97 and -1 for the effort. Next race, he aired by six in an N2X, getting a 90 and 4 1/4 for that one. His G1 Florida Derby run was pretty bad, but he likely was compromised by a terrible break, and he bounced back with a workmanlike score in the G3 Holy Bull at this distance. Still, his one huge race came around one turn, as did his better races at two. One thing that's tough not to like about him is he never quits running, even if he's taken out of his element, and he's got a very respectable record of 8/4-2-0-2. The post is awful though, and I can't shake the feeling that he's better around one turn, so I'd use him at the bottom of superfectas only.
SELECTIONS
7.) BIG BROWN - No value, but appears poles the best, and admittedly rooting for TC try in three weeks
8.) KENTUCKY BEAR - Could be getting good at the right time, though distance concerns loom
3.) ICABAD CRANE - Closed into molasses pace to run down Mint Lane, rates a chance
Strategy in playing the race? I'll probably be singling Big Brown in the late pick four (which features only a 14% takeout and will get most of my attention), then keying Kentucky Bear in second and third for some small trifecta wagers.
1.) MACHO AGAIN (Dallas Stewart/Julien Leparoux) 20-1
Promising West Point colt finally broke out in most recent start, closing being a moderate pace to take the $115,000 Derby Trial at 6-1. Steps back into graded company, and his previous two forays into these waters were no great shakes. He was a mediocre sixth in the G3 Lecomte at FG, then was beaten double digits in the G2 Lane's End. Those were also his only tries around two turns, which he attempts again in here. Derby Trial figure (99 BSF, 0 TG) seems a bit high, with the first, third and fifth-place finishers running drastic new tops. Even if his numbers are to be believed, there's still the nagging question over whether or not he's a two-turn horse or a one-turn closer. He did have excuses in his two-turn flops, with the Lane's End being run over polytrack, and the Lecomte being a paceless race. Thing is, the clip figures to be average in this as well. Guess the amount of inclusion depends on his price. At 25-1 or so, he's worth a flier in the bottom of exotics, but if he drifts down near 15-1, he might be a good play against.
2.) TRES BORRACHOS (Beau Greely/Tyler Baze) 30-1
Gelded son of Ecton Park has gotten good since turning three, running a deceptively good fourth in the $150,000 California Derby, then a decent third at 10-1 in the G3 El Camino Real Derby, and stepping up to come back for third at 37-1 after setting strong fractions in the G2 Arkansas Derby. Doesn't necessarily need the lead, but he does his best running near the front, and drawing inside, he'll probably have to gun to get a good position. Though the pace appeared fast in the AR Derby, I'm of the belief that the track sped up and became more speed-favoring by the time the big race came around, so I've substantially downgraded the numbers he got (95 BSF, 4 TG), which aren't all that strong to begin with. Also not sure he's quick enough to run with Big Brown, which could discourage him early. Not for me.
3.) ICABAD CRANE (Graham Motion/Jeremy Rose) 30-1
Lightly raced NY-bred came from the clouds to win first two starts, then suffered first defeat when forced close to a crawl in the $100,000 Rushaway, but rebounded in the $100,000 Frederico Tesio over this track, closing into a super slow early pace to win by a head. That looks more impressive, considering that the horse he bested by a head, Mint Lane, came back to run a bang-up second to Belmont contender Casino Drive after setting a much quicker pace last Saturday. This colt's pedigree and running style suggest that the extra sixteenth will be nothing if not an aid, and though his figures are slow (highs: 87 BSF, 5 1/2 TG), he could be ready for enough improvement to get him into the trifecta at a price. We've also seen these local horses jump up and run big races in the Preakness before. Using underneath.
4.) YANKEE BRAVO (Paddy Gallagher/Alex Solis) 15-1
Late running $17,000 purchase made a name for himself out west with a very impressive last to first win in the Cal Derby, despite traffic trouble and despite a slow pace in front of him. When he stepped into graded company in the G2 Louisiana Derby, he again didn't get fractions to run at, but he didn't disgrace himself, running third at 12-1 with an 89 BSF (4 TG). In the G1 SA Derby, however, he was a bit of a disappointment, being unable to make up serious ground and running an inconsequential fourth. Connections wisely decided to skip the Derby and run here, but I'm not sure the pace of the race and tendencies of the track suit him. He's certainly got some talent, but he's gonna need to raise his game to be a true factor in here, and I'm not sure that more distance is what he wants. Add to that the somewhat low morning line price, and he's not one that I'll be trying to get into exotics.
5.) BEHINDATTHEBAR (Todd Pletcher/David Flores) 10-1
Forest Wildcat bay broke through after a handy allowance score, closing from the clouds to get up in the G2 Lexington, and he's certainly got some strong races behind that. Problem is, that race set up perfectly for him, and as I addressed previously, his figures for that race (99 BSF, 1 1/2 TG) should be called into question. His only time on dirt, he ran a very mediocre fifth in the El Camino Real. Got a bad habit of drifting in, which could mean he's still a little bit green, and he was on his wrong lead for much of the stretch in the Lexington. That doesn't auger well for him in this contentious field that likely won't hand the race to him on a silver platter. His pedigree doesn't say that another eighth will necessarily be to his liking, either. Definitely dangerous, but at 10-1 or so, I'll pass.
6.) RACECAR RHAPSODY (Ken McPeek/Robby Albarado) 30-1
Not quite sure how this guy is thrice the morning line price of Behindatthebar, considering he was beaten only two lengths by that rival, but if that guess is right, it makes a previously unexciting prospect a little bit interesting at least. Son of Tale of the Cat has gotten a little unlucky in a few of his races, catching dead rails in his last two and breaking a million lengths behind the field in his debut. Yet he's never been out of the superfecta in six races. Think he'll be the most likely of the Lexington runners to appreciate the extra distance as well, although his lack of early speed is a definite concern. Also must note that his two big figures, 95 in the Lex and 93 in the Delta Jackpot, both reek of phoniness. His highest TG figure (3 3/4) makes him a fringe contender as well. Still, I wouldn't bet against him cracking the super, and maybe even sneaking into the tri with a clean trip, so at anything near the M/L, he's worth an inclusion.
7.) BIG BROWN (Rick Dutrow, Jr./Kent Desormeaux) 1-2
Was wildly impressive in his Derby win, and this is coming from one who was a skeptic before the race. The greenness was gone, he was as professional as could be, and he's still yet to retreat at all in any of his four races, opening up from the stretch call in each one. Breaking from the far outside stall last time out, he was pretty much forced to lay off the pace, which didn't bother him, but he may find himself on the lead in this race, which he definitely won't have a problem with (see: Derby, Florida). His bad feet are obviously a concern coming back on two weeks' rest, but he appears to have had no training setbacks, and even if he regresses a few lengths, he's still an easy winner on paper in here. Think he'll be a good play against at Belmont, but can't see him getting beaten in Baltimore.
8.) KENTUCKY BEAR (Reade Baker/Jamie Theriot) 15-1
Chestnut burst onto the scene with a rousing maiden victory, scoring by 6 1/2 at 10-1, earning big figures (93 BSF, 3 TG) on 1/21. His first graded try wasn't as hot, running a dull seventh in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Word is he bled through Lasix that day, so perhaps too much was asked of him early. He was given some time off, and returned with a solid third at 27-1 in the G1 Blue Grass, nearly returning to his maiden figures (90 BSF, 3 3/4 TG). Excluded from the Derby, which may have been a blessing in disguise, because now he shows up with five weeks' rest and a trio of strong five-furlong works. Still looked a little green in the Blue Grass, so perhaps he's been given a chance to mature a little more as well. Not too sure that the extra sixteenth is what he wants, but he's got the midpack running style that could put him in an advantageous position early. Don't think he's ready to take down the big horse, but he may be the most attractive exacta filler on the board.
9.) STEVIL (Nick Zito/John Velazquez) 30-1
Previously okay roan has run two large races since adding blinkers, beaten only 5 1/2 by Pyro in the LA Derby, then running a closing fourth at 68-1 in the Blue Grass. Earned decent enough figures (88 BSF, 4 TG) for that last effort, and with a couple of fast breezes in the last few weeks, he should be at peak form. Just not sure how good that peak form is, and though he's run well his last two, he wasn't really a threat in either race. The waters only get deeper here, and though it wouldn't be a total shock to see him crack the super again, anything more than that would be at least startling.
10.) RILEY TUCKER (Bill Mott/Edgar Prado) 30-1
Zayat runner probably put in the best effort of the three Lexington horses last out, running pretty close to a sizzling pace and still holding on to run third at 10-1, so one can forgive that "hung late" chart comment. Still, his only win came loose on the lead setting a modest pace in his debut, and what's really good with that last breeze? Can't really work much slower than 1:06 for five furlongs. Perhaps Mott is trying to get him to relax a little more, but then why put the blinkers back on in the first place? One of the few in here that may be able to keep in touch with Big Brown early, and he probably won't have too many problems with the added eighth, but he just seems to run up or down to his competition. Wouldn't completely toss him from trifecta and superfecta wagers, as he's got a tendency to hang around late.
11.) GIANT MOON (Rick Schosberg/Ramon Dominguez) 30-1
Giant's Causeway homebred reeled off four straight wins to start career before a disastrous 47-length drubbing in the rainy and foggy G3 Gotham. Not sure why people were so reluctant to draw a line through that run, and he bounced back with a fine race, running fourth in the G1 Wood Memorial at 26-1. He ran a very similar, if not quite as good, race to Tale of Ekati, making a premature move into the teeth of a fast pace and holding on for dear life late. 'Ekati came back to run a decent fourth in the Derby, so not sure what says this colt can't do the same kind of thing in the Preakness. Problem is, the wide post doesn't help matters, and his work on Tuesday may have been a little too fast for four days out of the race. Will still be using him at the bottom of exotics, but not super enthusiastically considering those two factors.
12.) GAYEGO (Paulo Lobo/Mike Smith) 8-1
This'll be the third time on this blog that I rail against this breathtaking colt, but he keeps looking like an underlay to me. He got away with murder when second in the G2 San Felipe, and still tried to get out late, then caught a speed-favoring track in the AR Derby, and again, got out late, earning figures (103 BSF, -1/4 TG) that look phony. In the Derby, he had a miserable trip, but his rankness was his own fault, and that's what got him into much of his trouble. Considering his very questionable distance pedigree, it seems like they're pushing it quite a bit with this guy, and that's before factoring in the back-and-forth cross-country flights over the past six weeks. Now he's got a terrible post to boot and he likely doesn't have the speed to get himself into good position before the turn. Plus he'll probably be overbet by people looking to take a stand versus the chalk. Totally against him.
13.) HEY BYRN (Eddie Plesa, Jr./C.C. Lopez) 20-1
Ran one of the most impressive races of the year by a three-year-old on 2/10, blowing away a good N1X field by 14 1/2, earning figures of 97 and -1 for the effort. Next race, he aired by six in an N2X, getting a 90 and 4 1/4 for that one. His G1 Florida Derby run was pretty bad, but he likely was compromised by a terrible break, and he bounced back with a workmanlike score in the G3 Holy Bull at this distance. Still, his one huge race came around one turn, as did his better races at two. One thing that's tough not to like about him is he never quits running, even if he's taken out of his element, and he's got a very respectable record of 8/4-2-0-2. The post is awful though, and I can't shake the feeling that he's better around one turn, so I'd use him at the bottom of superfectas only.
SELECTIONS
7.) BIG BROWN - No value, but appears poles the best, and admittedly rooting for TC try in three weeks
8.) KENTUCKY BEAR - Could be getting good at the right time, though distance concerns loom
3.) ICABAD CRANE - Closed into molasses pace to run down Mint Lane, rates a chance
Strategy in playing the race? I'll probably be singling Big Brown in the late pick four (which features only a 14% takeout and will get most of my attention), then keying Kentucky Bear in second and third for some small trifecta wagers.
Monday, May 12, 2008
Um, yeah..
About that "there won't be any more major developments before Wednesday" thing.. Yeah, be a lamb and kinda forget that I said that.
Frank Stronach, who only owns the freaking racetrack that the Preakness will be run at, and Todd Pletcher have decided against sending Harlem Rocker, and the three of them will instead go bully around some hosers in the Queen's Plate Trial. I hate to say I told you so, but it certainly seems like this would be a much bigger deal did we not already have 11-12 horses challenging the delivery truck. Plus I need to feel correct about something, considering that..
Gayego's now a Preakness probability! Don't give us any hint or anything.
This is very good news for people like me who aren't Gayego fans, especially now that Harlem Rocker isn't going. See, I had somehow determined that HR had at least a 25% chance of beating Big Brown, and he likely would've been bet down to 5/2 or 3-1 as wisenheimers like me tried to get another horse into the Preakness winner's circle. Either way, people like me would've had to go two-deep in most pick threes and fours, increasing the price of such tickets.
There also likely would not have been much value on a Big Brown/Harlem Rocker exacta, which I probably would've played against. I would not have had major confidence in doing so. Now, with Gayego as the underbet second choice (my guess would be around 7-1), I feel much more self-assured in betting against the second choice running second. I also will be able to single Big Brown in most multi-race exotics without much worry of an upset.
This is not to say that Gayego couldn't run second or even win. This field, though large, isn't packed with monsters, and Gayego probably is the second most gifted horse in the race. Plus his Derby was filled with trouble. If you watch the run past the finish line the first time, Gayego gets checked back multiple times, which put the tombstone on any chances he had to win.
I'm just saying, he scares me a lot less than Harlem Rocker would've, and doesn't strike me as a legitimate win candidate, as I question his two-turn chops. Then again, I didn't even know he was being considered for the race, so you probably shouldn't listen to me all that much.
Frank Stronach, who only owns the freaking racetrack that the Preakness will be run at, and Todd Pletcher have decided against sending Harlem Rocker, and the three of them will instead go bully around some hosers in the Queen's Plate Trial. I hate to say I told you so, but it certainly seems like this would be a much bigger deal did we not already have 11-12 horses challenging the delivery truck. Plus I need to feel correct about something, considering that..
Gayego's now a Preakness probability! Don't give us any hint or anything.
This is very good news for people like me who aren't Gayego fans, especially now that Harlem Rocker isn't going. See, I had somehow determined that HR had at least a 25% chance of beating Big Brown, and he likely would've been bet down to 5/2 or 3-1 as wisenheimers like me tried to get another horse into the Preakness winner's circle. Either way, people like me would've had to go two-deep in most pick threes and fours, increasing the price of such tickets.
There also likely would not have been much value on a Big Brown/Harlem Rocker exacta, which I probably would've played against. I would not have had major confidence in doing so. Now, with Gayego as the underbet second choice (my guess would be around 7-1), I feel much more self-assured in betting against the second choice running second. I also will be able to single Big Brown in most multi-race exotics without much worry of an upset.
This is not to say that Gayego couldn't run second or even win. This field, though large, isn't packed with monsters, and Gayego probably is the second most gifted horse in the race. Plus his Derby was filled with trouble. If you watch the run past the finish line the first time, Gayego gets checked back multiple times, which put the tombstone on any chances he had to win.
I'm just saying, he scares me a lot less than Harlem Rocker would've, and doesn't strike me as a legitimate win candidate, as I question his two-turn chops. Then again, I didn't even know he was being considered for the race, so you probably shouldn't listen to me all that much.
Not much left to say
Paul Moran said about everything that could be said about Casino Drive and the Belmont implications in this piece, so I won't go any further. There also won't be many new developments until Wednesday (note that Recapturetheglory is now out), when a decision on Harlem Rocker is reached and Saturday's races are drawn. Perhaps I'll chime in with a few thoughts on the Friday stakes, but the major updating will take place Wednesday through Friday.
Until then, here's the field:
Big Brown
Behindatthebar
Riley Tucker
Racecar Rhapsody
Giant Moon
Kentucky Bear
Stevil
Tres Borrachos
Ichabad Crane
Hey Byrn
Yankee Bravo
Macho Again
Possible:
Harlem Rocker
Until then, here's the field:
Big Brown
Behindatthebar
Riley Tucker
Racecar Rhapsody
Giant Moon
Kentucky Bear
Stevil
Tres Borrachos
Ichabad Crane
Hey Byrn
Yankee Bravo
Macho Again
Possible:
Harlem Rocker
Friday, May 9, 2008
Hey Byrn, Ichabad Crane, Riley Tucker join fray; Lex talk
Macho Again is going to the Ohio Derby, while Harlem Rocker's status will be up in the air until after he breezes "sometime this weekend". Pretty amazing how quickly this went from being a seven-horse race to a field of 12, possibly 13. As I said before, this lessens the pressure on Stronach/Pletcher to enter, but it also means that regardless of their decision, this race won't be a total walkover.
For me, the key to this race will be chucking or using sparingly the Lexington runners. Chances are, because of that big figure in the Lex, Behindatthebar, Riley Tucker and Racecar Rhapsody will all find themselves between 10-1 and 20-1, which is too low for me. My guess is Behindatthebar will be 10-1, with Riley Tucker and Racecar Rhapsody closer to 20-1. While the Lexington number made sense on its surface (1:42 was significantly faster than the other 8 1/2-furlong races that day), there were just too many jumps in form for me to totally believe it.
It's very similar to my feelings on the AR Derby, where the first four finishers all managed to run career tops. Z Fortune ran 10th in the Derby, and Gayego ran 17th. Clearly not an indisputable condemnation of the race, but not an endorsement either.
In the Lex, Behindatthebar won with a 99 Beyer (previous high 89), Samba Rooster ran a huge second with a 97 (previous high 96, but that was around one turn), Riley Tucker ran third with a 95 (previous high 85), Racecar Rhapsody ran fourth with a 95 (previous high 93, but that was in the Delta Jackpot, whose figure looks more questionable by the day, RR's next high was 87). Further back, Big Glen ran a 93 (previous high 86) and Tomcito ran a 92 (previous high 85). So one can come to two conclusions when analyzing the Lexington figure: Either six horses ran career bests, or the figure is inflated.
I take synthetic figures with a grain of salt as it is, but this one looks doubly dubious with all of those form jumps. You don't need me to tell you that synthetic races are often run like turf races, with the final time being directly influenced by the early pace. Considering the wicked fractions in the Lexington (:22.78, :45.21, 1:09.48), chances were that they wouldn't come home in 1:44.
For the record, here are the approximate internal splits for the three Preakness horses from the Lexington:
Behindatthebar - :25.24, :47.50, 1:11.12, 1:36.04, 1:42.14
Riley Tucker - :23.76, :45.95, 1:10.05, 1:35.63, 1:42.39
Racecar Rhapsody - :25.24, :47.99, 1:11.77, 1:36.53, 1:42.47
Eight days out of the Preakness, it's way early to be forming an opinion, but, depending on price, the horses that (so far) interest me most to fill out an exacta behind Big Brown are, in order, Kentucky Bear, Recapturetheglory and Giant Moon. I think all three of them ran very well in their respective most recent races, and they'll likely be in good striking position, alongside the big horse, just off the flank of Tres Borrachos. If I can get $35 or so back on a Big Brown/Kentucky Bear exacta, that might be my play of the race.
For me, the key to this race will be chucking or using sparingly the Lexington runners. Chances are, because of that big figure in the Lex, Behindatthebar, Riley Tucker and Racecar Rhapsody will all find themselves between 10-1 and 20-1, which is too low for me. My guess is Behindatthebar will be 10-1, with Riley Tucker and Racecar Rhapsody closer to 20-1. While the Lexington number made sense on its surface (1:42 was significantly faster than the other 8 1/2-furlong races that day), there were just too many jumps in form for me to totally believe it.
It's very similar to my feelings on the AR Derby, where the first four finishers all managed to run career tops. Z Fortune ran 10th in the Derby, and Gayego ran 17th. Clearly not an indisputable condemnation of the race, but not an endorsement either.
In the Lex, Behindatthebar won with a 99 Beyer (previous high 89), Samba Rooster ran a huge second with a 97 (previous high 96, but that was around one turn), Riley Tucker ran third with a 95 (previous high 85), Racecar Rhapsody ran fourth with a 95 (previous high 93, but that was in the Delta Jackpot, whose figure looks more questionable by the day, RR's next high was 87). Further back, Big Glen ran a 93 (previous high 86) and Tomcito ran a 92 (previous high 85). So one can come to two conclusions when analyzing the Lexington figure: Either six horses ran career bests, or the figure is inflated.
I take synthetic figures with a grain of salt as it is, but this one looks doubly dubious with all of those form jumps. You don't need me to tell you that synthetic races are often run like turf races, with the final time being directly influenced by the early pace. Considering the wicked fractions in the Lexington (:22.78, :45.21, 1:09.48), chances were that they wouldn't come home in 1:44.
For the record, here are the approximate internal splits for the three Preakness horses from the Lexington:
Behindatthebar - :25.24, :47.50, 1:11.12, 1:36.04, 1:42.14
Riley Tucker - :23.76, :45.95, 1:10.05, 1:35.63, 1:42.39
Racecar Rhapsody - :25.24, :47.99, 1:11.77, 1:36.53, 1:42.47
Eight days out of the Preakness, it's way early to be forming an opinion, but, depending on price, the horses that (so far) interest me most to fill out an exacta behind Big Brown are, in order, Kentucky Bear, Recapturetheglory and Giant Moon. I think all three of them ran very well in their respective most recent races, and they'll likely be in good striking position, alongside the big horse, just off the flank of Tres Borrachos. If I can get $35 or so back on a Big Brown/Kentucky Bear exacta, that might be my play of the race.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Dutrow concerned about "Pletcher's white horse"
Love him or hate him (and I'm certainly not a fan), the guy tends to have at least one amusing line per interview.
Pletcher's white horse aside, there is certainly an interesting little field shaping up for this race. I staunchly disagreed with someone who said that the Preakness would be a six-horse race, followed by a four-horse field in the Belmont, and now, with the additions of Recapturetheglory and Racecar Rhapsody, we figure to have anywhere between 9-12 horses running in Baltimore. There are just too many things that can go wrong with a horse over the course of five weeks for trainers not take a shot at a prestigious race with a big purse if they've got a halfway decent three-year-old.
The race, at least so far, also sets up to be run fairly fairly. There's some speed signed on (Tres Borrachos, Recapturetheglory) to give the closers (Yankee Bravo, Behindatthebar, Racecar Rhapsody) a shot, but not so much that the stalkers (Big Brown, Kentucky Bear) will be sucked into a meltdown. I'm very much looking forward to this, maybe even moreso than the Derby, since the Preakness is not as much of a clusterfuck, and because I'm anxious to see how Big Brown has come out of the Derby.
My only concern with the expanding field size is that there will be less pressure on Stronach and Pletcher to enter Harlem Rocker. If five or so horses were showing up, the calls for the white horse's presence would be pretty loud, especially since Pimlico is owned by Stronach. Now, however, with close to a full field looking probable, it's more likely that Stronach and Pletcher will be able to slink off up to Woodbine unnoticed.
For now though, it at least looks as if Big Brown will have to be at least 75% to wrap up the second jewel.
Pletcher's white horse aside, there is certainly an interesting little field shaping up for this race. I staunchly disagreed with someone who said that the Preakness would be a six-horse race, followed by a four-horse field in the Belmont, and now, with the additions of Recapturetheglory and Racecar Rhapsody, we figure to have anywhere between 9-12 horses running in Baltimore. There are just too many things that can go wrong with a horse over the course of five weeks for trainers not take a shot at a prestigious race with a big purse if they've got a halfway decent three-year-old.
The race, at least so far, also sets up to be run fairly fairly. There's some speed signed on (Tres Borrachos, Recapturetheglory) to give the closers (Yankee Bravo, Behindatthebar, Racecar Rhapsody) a shot, but not so much that the stalkers (Big Brown, Kentucky Bear) will be sucked into a meltdown. I'm very much looking forward to this, maybe even moreso than the Derby, since the Preakness is not as much of a clusterfuck, and because I'm anxious to see how Big Brown has come out of the Derby.
My only concern with the expanding field size is that there will be less pressure on Stronach and Pletcher to enter Harlem Rocker. If five or so horses were showing up, the calls for the white horse's presence would be pretty loud, especially since Pimlico is owned by Stronach. Now, however, with close to a full field looking probable, it's more likely that Stronach and Pletcher will be able to slink off up to Woodbine unnoticed.
For now though, it at least looks as if Big Brown will have to be at least 75% to wrap up the second jewel.
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