Monday, May 12, 2008

Um, yeah..

About that "there won't be any more major developments before Wednesday" thing.. Yeah, be a lamb and kinda forget that I said that.

Frank Stronach, who only owns the freaking racetrack that the Preakness will be run at, and Todd Pletcher have decided against sending Harlem Rocker, and the three of them will instead go bully around some hosers in the Queen's Plate Trial. I hate to say I told you so, but it certainly seems like this would be a much bigger deal did we not already have 11-12 horses challenging the delivery truck. Plus I need to feel correct about something, considering that..

Gayego's now a Preakness probability! Don't give us any hint or anything.

This is very good news for people like me who aren't Gayego fans, especially now that Harlem Rocker isn't going. See, I had somehow determined that HR had at least a 25% chance of beating Big Brown, and he likely would've been bet down to 5/2 or 3-1 as wisenheimers like me tried to get another horse into the Preakness winner's circle. Either way, people like me would've had to go two-deep in most pick threes and fours, increasing the price of such tickets.

There also likely would not have been much value on a Big Brown/Harlem Rocker exacta, which I probably would've played against. I would not have had major confidence in doing so. Now, with Gayego as the underbet second choice (my guess would be around 7-1), I feel much more self-assured in betting against the second choice running second. I also will be able to single Big Brown in most multi-race exotics without much worry of an upset.

This is not to say that Gayego couldn't run second or even win. This field, though large, isn't packed with monsters, and Gayego probably is the second most gifted horse in the race. Plus his Derby was filled with trouble. If you watch the run past the finish line the first time, Gayego gets checked back multiple times, which put the tombstone on any chances he had to win.

I'm just saying, he scares me a lot less than Harlem Rocker would've, and doesn't strike me as a legitimate win candidate, as I question his two-turn chops. Then again, I didn't even know he was being considered for the race, so you probably shouldn't listen to me all that much.

No comments: