Saturday Undercard Extravashitza

Missing the Humana and Woodford Reserve, but I'll get to those a little later! Weather seems to have cleared up, good luck on Derby Day!

5th (1:21) - 74th Running of THE CHURCHILL DOWNS. Grade II. Purse $250,000 For Four-year-olds And Upward

1.) ELITE SQUADRON (Jim Baker/John Velazquez)
Officer chestnut has a pretty distinct pattern of running one huge race, bouncing off of that race and taking a few tries to get back to that form. Well, his last was the biggest effort of his career to date, with him running a head second at 38-1 in the G2 Commonwealth. Before that, he was run into the ground by Commentator, and he likely was aided last out by being able to run relatively easy fractions up front. Good news for him is that, for a seven-furlong G2, this didn't draw a ton of rocket speed. With that said, there are enough pressers (Noonmark, Junior College, Island Warrior, Hewitts, Spotsgone) to at least keep him honest. His workouts since the Commonwealth have been fine, and he does sport three wins in five tries on this track. Mixed feelings.

2.) THOUSAND WORDS (Bobby Frankel/David Flores)
Juddmonte colt has yet to run on actual dirt, and this is an interesting spot for him, considering that he probably could've been competitive in a weak renewal of the Woodford Reserve later in the card. Was fifth as the favorite in the Commonwealth, but he had to run behind a moderate pace, much like he did in the G2 San Pasqual three back. Though the fractions should be quicker today, they probably won't be sizzling, which might set up his best shot. Major issue is how he'll do on the dirt, and betting against Danehill progeny or Danehill progeny's progeny on dirt has been a profitable angle in Breeders' Cups. Think he's best suited to a mile on the grass.

3.) NOONMARK (Steve Asmussen/Shaun Bridgmohan)
Five-year-old's talent finally paid off two back, when he nabbed the G3 Mr. Prospector at GP over quality sprinter Mach Ride. Not sure quite what happened in New Orleans, but perhaps he was a bit too far off the modest pace early on? Either way, he lost to a serious runner that day in Euroears, and Semaphore Man came back to run big at OP. Faces an easier field, believe it or not, in this G2, and he should be able to sit a good trip off the early speed. Don't like that this fragile horse appears to have missed a work last week. Contender nonetheless.

4.) JUNIOR COLLEGE (Tony Reinstedler/Jesus Castanon)
Six-year-old gelding has turned into quite the useful sprinter, and he's shown in his past few races a degree of versatility that we hadn't seen from this son of Ide before. He gets away from Semaphore Man, who defeated him twice at Oaklawn, and his figures make him very competitive. Regularly runs around 100 on the BSF scale, but his TG numbers have been very high, with him getting back to back -3's before running a -1 1/2 last out. Wired a very fast overnight at CD last fall, so it's not like he just loves the Oaklawn strip either. Main concern is him having to negotiate another furlong, but if he can handle that, he looms large.

5.) ISLAND WARRIOR (Cody Autrey/Jamie Theriot)
Autrey must have liked what he saw with this $80,000 claim, turning him around in less than a month in a G2. He's a horse that liked to settle just off the pace and make his run, and he should be able to do that with moderate splits up front. Has a few fast races on his resume, but he's never beaten anyone of consequence, and although he appears to be coming into this in peak form, that form probably isn't good enough to score here. Wouldn't rule out a minor award at a big price however.

6.) HEWITTS (Bob Hess/Kent Desormeaux)
Concerto gelding gets a class hike following five consecutive 90+ BSF's to start his career. Got the speed to hit the front in this race, and appears to get stronger the longer she goes, being two-for-two at the distance. With that said, this isn't a classic G2, but it's significantly better than any field he faced at home in California. Considering that we don't quite know how good he is, it wouldn't be a total shock to see him wire the field, but he should probably be used sparingly.

7.) CARNACKS CHOICE (Greg Foley/Garret Gomez(
Chestnut colt came out of nowhere to run a huge race at KEE last out, scoring by a neck at 12-1 and earning a huge 107 BSF for the effort (though he only got a 1 TG). Can't blame connections for trying this race off that big effort, but considering that he won the Lafayette at 10-1 at KEE last spring, it's a distinct possibility that he just loves the KEE poly. Did run well over this track 11/17 behind Elite Squadron. If he repeats his last, he's obviously a huge danger, but that seems unlikely. Tough read.

8.) WANDERIN BOY (Zito/Nakatani)
SCRATCHED FOR ALYSHEBA

9.) SPOTSGONE (William Fires/Joe Johnson)
Son of Bright Launch has made quite the career for himself wiring minor stakes at 8-8 1/2 furlongs, but the last time he tried something like this, he quit badly in the G3 Ack Ack. He fits for the most part on figures, but if he wants the lead, he's going to have Elite Squadron and Hewitts to deal with. Can't get into him.

SELECTIONS
4.) JUNIOR COLLEGE - Distance is a concern, but otherwise looks strong
3.) NOONMARK - Dangerous if able to rebound from Kenner third
7.) CARNACKS CHOICE - Heck of a run last time, now do it again

6th (2:11) - 53rd Running of the LA TROIENNE. Grade III. Purse $150,000 For Fillies, Three Years Old

1.) SECRET GYPSY (Ronny Werner/Kent Desormeaux)
This $10,000 chestnut had one of the most interesting runs of any two-year-old in her debut at SAR. She refused to get in the gate for a good few minutes, then, after finally being loaded, shot to the front and opened up to win by 6 1/4 at 13-1 in what was then track record time. Earned big numbers (100 BSF, 2 1/2 TG) for that effort, but she fractured a cannon bone soon thereafter, and hasn't been seen since. Quite the ambitious spot for Werner to enter her first back, so he must feel good about what he has. With that said, if her debut is any indication, she's a speedball, and there's a plethora of speed signed on in this race. Could be a nice one, but with the physical problems and the other frontrunners, this may not be the race for her.

2.) AMERICAN COUNTY (Dale Romans/Robby Albarado)
Gibson County bay has a super local record (5/2-1-2), but is another who likes to do her running early, and her two worst races came the two times she tries to go longer than six panels. Her race three back was super, but if she can't clear after the first call, she's not usually the same filly. Won a very subpar renewal of the Sunshine Million Oaks two back, and Prado sticks with Keep the Peace. Leaning elsewhere.

3.) COLOR ME UP (D. Wayne Lukas/Calvin Borel)
Aptitude filly is still a maiden, having run second four different times, coming into this off a decent third in an Oaklawn overnight at a mile. Cuts back to one turn, but she's another speedball who doesn't seem to possess much ability to pass horses, and she's light on figures.

4.) GAME FACE (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez)
Zabeel red comes into this off a disappointing second at 3-5 in the G2 Davona Dale, but she lost to a nice one that day (Bsharpsonata), and it could've been just the kind of race she needed to toughen her up, considering she had been beating up on weak competition before that. Not crazy about her missing a work in the beginning of April, but her two CD breezes have been solid, and key for her is that she's one of the few in here who's proven the ability to come from off the pace and win. Major factor on her best.

5.) INFORMED DECISION (Jonathan Sheppard/Ramon Dominguez)
Stunning daughter of Monarchos rebounded in a major way following dull fourth in Davona Dale, sitting off the pace and cruising to score by 6 1/4 in a KEE OC/N2X, earning a 101 BSF and 2 TG for the effort. Love her tractability. Get the feeling she's not as good as her last or as bad as her two back race. Connections certainly believed, paying $320,000 for her as a two-year-old despite her being by a $6,000 sire. Should be able to benefit from sizzling early fractions, and merits a big chance.

6.) KEEP THE PEACE (Eddie Kenneally/Edgar Prado)
More speed in a speed-loaded field, this Touch Gold filly also fell victim to Bsharpsonata as a heavy chalk, two back in the G2 Forward Gal. Ran a mediocre fourth in the G2 Beaumont last out, but willing to excuse that race because of the poly. There isn't much, however, that suggests she'll be able to win a vicious pace battle and hold off Game Face or Informed Decision should they come calling late. Talented to be sure, but like many in here, the shape of the race makes it an iffy spot.

7.) ALINA (Steve Asmussen/Shaun Bridgmohan)
Came Home lass exploded when transferred to Asmussen two back, scoring by 18 3/4 in a Delta Downs overnight, then gave Derby runner Eight Belles a stern challenge in the G2 Fantasy at Oaklawn. Prety impressive, considering the class hike she faced, and she looms the class of this field off that effort alone. With that said, more speed, though she showed the ability at Remington last fall to run decently from off the pace. Not sure that she didn't just find herself on the lead last out, so would be hesitant to call her another one-dimensional speed horse. If Bridgmohan takes her back and she can deal with that, she's dangerous. If not, she could be another pace casualty at short odds. Mixed feelings.

8.) TIZ TO DREAM (Ian Wilkes/Javier Castellano)
One of the few with off the pace ability, so she deserves a second look based on that alone, but her GP figures were slow, and she'd need a major move forward to score in here. Like the way she's been working, and she could factor at long odds, but can't quite justify playing her on top.

9.) MINEWANDER (David Vance/Larry Melancon)
Very similar to the filly to her inside in that she'll benefit from a favorable pace scenario, but she may not be quite good enough to get it done regardless. After all, she just got trounced by Informed Decision last out, and unless you think that one just loved the polytrack, what gives the idea that this girl can turn the tables today? Always puts in her run, so I could see her snagging a piece, but prefer a classier closer.

SELECTIONS
4.) GAME FACE - May be underlaid, but think she'll be ready to bounce back after meeting Bsharpsonata
5.) INFORMED DECISION - Could've just been poly that she liked, but she could also be turning corner
7.) ALINA - Makes a ton of sense if she can just lay off the early pace
1.) SECRET GYPSY - Looked smashing at SAR, but draws tough assignment off long break

7th (3:03) - 19th Running of THE CHURCHILL DISTAFF TURF MILE. Grade III. Purse $150,000 For Fillies And Mares, Three Years Old And Upward

1.) YOU GO WEST GIRL (Tom Proctor/Julien Leparoux)
Daughter of Mr. Greeley returns to site of big second in G3 Regret as a three-year-old, and she finished the year nicely with a last-to-first score in a fast KEE N2X. She's certainly got a kick on her, and that should serve her well, what with the abundance of speed signed on. Only been out of the exacta once in eight races, and that was when chasing today's chalk in the G3 Pucker Up last summer. Her return race on the KEE poly was slow on the BSF scale (77), but she broke in the air and got a decent TG number (6) for the effort. Problem is, she was life and death to get by some weaker girls, and her two breezes since the race have been pedestrian. That may be by design, but just wondering a bit whether she's ready just yet second off the pine. Pace scenario favors her and her odds will be juicy, but she needs to raise her game a bit.

2.) SHARP SUSAN (Bill Mott/Kent Desormeaux)
Consistent filly was given the winter off following a dull seventh in the G1 QE II Cup at KEE, and she came back running, closing in :23 or so on a wet course last out to take a classified allowance with respectable figures (92 BSF, 5 1/2 TG). Expecting at least slight improvement in her second start off the bench, and that makes her a major factor. Main concern is whether or not she'll be anchored too close to a fast pace, but she's proven able to take back if necessary in the past. Definite contender.

3.) DANZON (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez)
Mercurial five-year-old has run some huge races (third at 17-1 against boys in last year's G1 Woodford Reserve, facile score in G3 Kentucky Cup Distaff on poly), and also some stinkers (third at odds-on in G3 Mint Julep, 10th in BC F&M Turf, third at even-money in allowance last out). One thing is common in her races though: If you give her some pace to run at, she's plenty dangerous. She should definitely get that in here, and although it's dicey to bet closers in mile races on the turf, she could offer value if enough bettors are deterred by her last race. Using in all slots.

4.) LADY CARLOCK (Carl Nafzger/Robby Albarado)
Late-running filly finally broke her N1X condition over yielding course at CD last fall, and since then, has improved, running a few big races at GP before closing into modest pace to score at KEE going 1 3/16 last out. While she certainly will get the setup she likes in here, her top figures (89 BSF, 7 TG) leave her well short of what it would take to win this. The type of horse that's tough to leave out of trifectas, because she always comes with her run, but a tough one to love on top with the class hike.

5.) NEW EDITION (Steve Asmussen/Shaun Bridgmohan)
Finished behind Sharp Susan a few times last year and also narrowly missed reeling in Dreaming of Anna in the Virginia Oaks, but she's yet to break through on this level. Her return race, a third in an overnight at Sam Houston, may have been better than it looked, but she still weakened against a field she should've handled. On her best, she's got a shot of hitting the board, but she's gotta prove she's ready to beat this caliber.

6.) V.I.P. PRINCESS (Adam Hovermale/John McKee)
Thunder Gulch filly tries grass for the first time, and seems woefully overmatched in here. She's got plenty of early speed, so she figures to give Dreaming of Anna all she can handle in the first five furlongs, but after that, not sure how this filly plans on keeping up.

7.) BAYOU'S LASSIE (Dale Romans/Edgar Prado)
Pretty peculiar that this mare scratched out of a pretty paceless G2 Louisville on the dirt to run in this speed-happy DTM. She's certainly got the goods when allowed a loose lead, but she may have to run as fast as she's ever run on grass to get to the front, and then it's likely she'll be feeling the effects late.

8.) VENTURA (Bobby Frankel/Garret Gomez)
Winner of three in a row, this Juddmonte homebred comes into this off a solid score in the G2 Madison at KEE, and before that, she won a quick N3X on the downhill at SA without much urging. Main concern is whether or not she'll be able to lay off the pace, but if she can get a good, clean trip from the middle of the pack, she figures to be scary in the stretch.

9.) DREAMING OF ANNA (Wayne Catalano/Cornelio Velasquez)
There isn't much to knock about the winner of the '06 BC Juvy Fillies, as she's 9-for-13 lifetime with nearly $2 million in the bank. With that said, it's pretty established that she's a one-dimensional speed horse, yet she continues to draw fields devoid of much early pace. That trend ends today, when she'll have to deal with New Edition, V.I.P. Princess and Bayou's Lassie on the front end, the latter of which can definitely go with her. Going to be plenty overbet off her big figure last out (104 BSF), and if she's able to throw one of her best efforts, she definitely is scary. But this is the exact type of horse one needs to try and beat, and she's useful in savers mostly.

SELECTIONS
3.) DANZON - Been giving this one lots of chances, but she actually may offer value today, runs well behind good pace
8.) VENTURA - The hot horse, could get the first run on the speed
2.) SHARP SUSAN - Classy filly should be factor with improvement off bench
9.) DREAMING OF ANNA - Needs no introduction, but will need a break up front

8th (3:57) - 22nd Running of THE HUMANA DISTAFF. Grade I. Purse $300,000 For Fillies And Mares, Four Years Old And Upward

1.) HYSTERICALADY (Jerry Hollendorfer/Rafael Bejarano)
Defending champeen and runner up in last year's BC Distaff, this mare bounced back from a fourth at 1-5 in the G1 Santa Monica with a score in the G3 Azeri. That was a pretty weak field though, and her figures for the effort (95 BSF, 2 1/4 TG) were relatively weak. Distorted Humor chestnut definitely wouldn't mind some give in the ground, and she could be rounding back to top form, as she's likely been pointed for this. Definitely scary when on her game.

2.) CHANGE UP (Steve Margolis/Kent Desormeaux)
Another chestnut by Distorted Humor, this homebred seemed poised to do big things after her fast wins as a juvenile, but she's never reproduced her two-year-old form, and now she's gotta deal with probably the best field she's ever lined up against. Speedy filly doesn't have much quit in her, but jeez, wouldn't you like to see more than one mediocre GP allowance win in the past year? On the plus side, she's trained well, and she's got a good record (6/2-3-0) over this course, but this would be a major surprise were she to get her picture taken.

3.) GRAEME SIX (Tom Amoss/Julien Leparoux)
Appears to be coming into this in the best shape of her life, having just won a fast version of the $50,000 Carousel at Oaklawn last out (102 BSF, 1 TG). That's two stakes wins in a row, albeit over lesser competition, but now she returns to a track she won and missed by a nose on last spring and summer. She's certainly got talent, and she's versatile enough to let the race come to her, which is always a positive in these long sprints. Still a pretty significant class hike she's facing, but she merits a long look as the hot horse.

4.) MISS MACY SUE (Kelly Von Hemel/Eusebio Razo)
Got a paid workout last out in beating two rivals at 1-20, and this mare's got an excuse for the only two bad races she's run recently. The BC F&M Sprint was a washout, and she was tombstoned by Prado in the G2 Honorable Miss last summer. Other than that, she's 6-for-6 in the last two seasons, and she returns to the site of her G3 Winning Colors triumph. Tries seven furlongs for the first time, but her running style suggests another furlong shouldn't be a major issue. Consistently earns TG figures just under 0, and BSF's in the high 90's or low 100's. Versatility noted. Should be ready to roll.

5.) SUGAR SWIRL (Brian Lynch/Javier Castellano)
Sheesh, tough to find much wrong with those three GP races, other than that she faced a whole lot of nobody in her wins. Still, she won the right way, and those recent figures (100 BSF, 98 BSF, -1 TG, -1 1/4 TG, -1 1/4 TG) make her quite imposing in here. Quality mare gets the acid test, but she's too fast to leave out.

6.) WINDYINDY (Carl Nafzger/Calvin Borel)
Entered in hopes that a pace meltdown occurs, but that really doesn't seem likely with the way the race is shaping up, and even if it did occur, there are other, more viable closers to include. Can't see it.

7.) MIRACULOUS MISS (Steve Klesaris/Jeremy Rose)
Used to be a very big fan of this mare, but got off the bandwagon just in time to see her run a closing second at 43-1 in the BC F&M Sprint. Nothing wrong with her third in the DeFrancis Dash, what with it being against Benny the Bull, who only came back to win the $2,000,000 Golden Shaheen in Dubai. She's lightly-raced, so she probably is just about reaching her peak, and she certainly fits on figures, but the pace shape just seems to work against her. Tough to ignore her when she's at her best though.

8.) BARONESS THATCHER (Bill Mott/John Velazquez)
Has one big race on her resume, the nose second to BC F&M Sprint winner Maryfield in the G1 Ballerina, but other than that, it's been a bunch of disappointing running lines for this Johannesburg filly. She had seemingly no excuse two back, and she was no match for Sugar Swirl last time out. Now she's gotta face that one again, plus the defending champion of this race, plus Miss Macy Sue, plus a mare that finished not too far off of Benny the Bull and Talent Search. Not using her.

9.) INTANGAROO (Gary Sherlock/Alonso Quinonez)
Late runner has spent her entire career on synthetic tracks, and broke through when she nabbed the Santa Monica over Hystericalady at 26-1 two back. However, that runner is likely not at her best on the fake stuff, and this filly has sincedropped a decision in a weak G3 Las Flores. Outside post and lack of speed up front don't help.

SELECTIONS
5.) SUGAR SWIRL - Faces stiffer competition, but seems to be in the proverbial zone
1.) HYSTERICALADY - Returning champion figures tough if at peak form
4.) MISS MACY SUE - Underrated mare could be ready for her close-up
7.) MIRACULOUS MISS - Pace works against, but her last was too impressive to ignore