Oaks Preview

Well, the weather may or may not end up being nasty, but either way, we've got one hell of a renewal of the Oaks on our hands! Let's dive right into it..

1.) GOLDEN DOC A (Barry Abrams/Kent Desormeaux) 12-1
CA-bred chestnut has gotten very good since coming off the turf out west. In four starts, she's won the G1 Las Virgenes and run narrow seconds in the G2 Santa Ynez, G1 Santa Anita Oaks and G2 Beaumont. She doesn't have to face Ariege today, the filly that's knocked her off the last two times, and her stretch running ways should translate well to the nine-furlong test she meets. She's of course best if she has some pace to run at, which is a concern in here, as there isn't a ton of speed signed on, but she closed into a slow pace in the SA Oaks, and showed in the Beaumont that she doesn't have to come from the clouds. Main concern is whether or not she'll adapt to dirt, but according to astute DRF clocker Mike Welsch, her 4/23 blowout at CD was, if I may paraphrase, pretty freaking sweet. She apparently breezed in :59 without much urging, and galloped out in under 1:12, outworking Bsharpsonata in company. Beyer-wise, she stacks up if you key off the Las Virgenes win (94 BSF), and her Beaumont TG number (2 1/4) is competitive. Bejarano sticks with Country Star, which is understandable, considering the connections. The rail draw would be more of a concern if there was an abundance of speed to her outside, and there isn't. Very attractive.

2.) ABSOLUTELY CINDY (Keith Kinmon/Julien Leparoux) 20-1
Came out of nowhere in more ways than one to score against boys in the Battaglia Memorial three back, closing from 20 lengths behind to light up the board at nearly 20-1. She then had an excuse in the G1 Ashland, being marooned behind a crawl of a pace, and her G3 Appalachian was slightly better, as she had to deal with a slow clip again, but was beaten only 3 1/4. There are two issues with her in this race: One, as we've seen, she has no early speed, and needs a wild pace to do her best running, and there just isn't a bunch of speed in here. Two, she's only run once on dirt, and it was a trouncing at the hands of Indian Blessing and Proud Spell in the G3 Silverbulletday. In her defense, she likely was pushed too hard early in that race. Still, she would have to improve on her Battaglia figures (89 BSF, 4 1/2 TG) to factor in this, and on dirt, behind a pedestrian pace, it doesn't seem very likely.

3.) AWESOME CHIC (Rafael Ramos/Robby Albarado) 20-1
Daughter of Awesome Again has yet to be out of the trifecta in five attempts, and merits a shot at this after her impressive triumph in the G3 Florida Oaks last out. She tracked an above-average pace and ran away by 4 1/2 at 13-1, although one could certainly question what she beat in the race. Figure makers differ on that effort, as Beyer's guys gave her a 92, but Jerry Brown only scored it a 6 1/4, way short of what it'd take to compete in this Oaks. In her corner is the ability to lay close to what should be a fairly easy pace, and she's bred to go this far. Not much foundation in her with only one two-turn race, but Ramos has given her a lot of nice, easy six-furlong breezes in preparation for this longer test. Gets a serious class challenge, and I wouldn't recommend using her on top, but it wouldn't be shock to see her hang on for a piece.

4.) ELUSIVE LADY (John Kimmel/Eibar Coa) 30-1
Van Nistelrooy gray has rebounded well from the G2 Old Hat disaster with a second to the filly on her inside in the Florida Oaks and a third in the G2 Comely despite being rushed up on a fast pace. With that said, she appears to have not developed a step from two to three, and her come home times around two turns have been below par. Though she will have the advantage of being forwardly placed, more distance doesn't look like what this filly is asking for. Siding against her in this spot.

5.) RAISERRA (Ray Tracy/Jamie Theriot) 50-1
This one certainly perked up a bit in her second start off the layoff, stretching out to two turns, finishing a big second at 11-1 in the Instant Racing at OP (91 BSF, 5 TG), and love the confident runback by Tracy after two big works with the blinkers off. Don't like that her only win came against terribly overmatched maidens at Prairie Meadows. However, she's got the speed to matter early, and although the extra furlong is a question, she doesn't need to move forward too much more to factor late. At that grossly overlaid morning line, she's a great play, and even if the win may be slightly out of her reach, she's got a good chance to crack the trifecta with a clean trip.

6.) COUNTRY STAR (Bobby Frankel/Rafael Bejarano) 4-1
Stonerside homebred did very little wrong as a two-year-old, scoring a pair of G1 wins. Came back after the winter off with a rather dull fifth in the G1 Ashland, but in her defense, she was stuck behind a crawling pace that day, and although there isn't a ton of speed signed on today, the fractions should at least be swifter than they were at KEE. Main issue is that she's yet to run spectacularly fast on figures (93 BSF, 5 TG is her high), and we'll have to see how well she runs on dirt, though her pops certainly liked it. Faces the sternest test of her life in here, and with speed to her inside and outside, who's to say how clean she'll get away from the gate? She definitely merits a shot, but with the connections, she'll be overbet. Probably best used in savers only.

7.) LITTLE BELLE (Kiaran McLaughlin/Alan Garcia) 8-1
A.P. Indy bay ran her winning streak to three with her game comeback triumph at 16-1 in the Ashland, and although she benefitted from setting a slow pace that day, she doesn't need the lead. Still think she's gonna find it tougher to deal with Proud Spell and Bsharpsonata on dirt, not to mention Golden Doc A and Pure Clan as well. All signs are that she's doing well though, and her 4/25 breeze should be respected. Being by the Belmont-winning sire out of a Mr. Prospector mare bodes well for her getting that extra sixteenth, and she could indeed turn out to be a good one, but just think the challenge will be significantly tougher in here. Underneath.

8.) PROUD SPELL (Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez) 7-2
Odds will be substantially shorter with the defection of stablemate Eight Belles, but this filly looks like the deserving favorite with her two big races at FG and having never been out of the trifecta in seven starts. Definitely willing to chalk the Ashland flop up to the polytrack and the pace, as she's not the type to flatten out in the stretch like that. She's got great tactical speed and figure-wise, she's the horse to beat. Slightly concerned that 4/27 workout was a little too quick, and she's gotta navigate another sixteenth today, but she's certainly got my respect.

9.) A TO THE CROFT (Ken McPeek/Calvin Borel) 20-1
Appeared on the verge of good things with seconds in three straight graded stakes last summer and fall, but since getting beaten a pole in the BC Juvy Fillies, she's been a bit disappointing. She finished third twice as the heavy chalk this spring, making her difficult to like against this tough field of girls. Also seems to be best when she's got a lot of pace to close into, and not sure that'll be the case today. Pass.

10.) BSHARPSONATA (Tim Salzman/Eric Camacho) 6-1
Hard to fault 6-for-10 Pulpit filly for loss last out, as she still ran her race and was barely outgamed. In fact, she seems to run her race no matter what, and it carried her to four straight stakes wins over the fall and winter. The post is somewhat of a concern, but she's got enough speed to not be at the mercy of others. Tough to go against a filly that wins so darn much, but her figures have been slightly below what it would take to win this. She regularly runs BSF's in the low 90's and TG's around 4, and she'd likely need a mid-to-high 90 BSF and around a 2 TG to take the top prize. Banking against that happening, especially considering she got outworked by the rail filly last week.

11.) PURE CLAN (Bob Holthus/Edgar Prado) 6-1
New IEAH purchase has progressed very nicely despite suffering the first two losses of her career this season, and she gets a break from the rear end of Eight Belles today. Love her versatility, which tells me the post won't be too much of an issue, and we already know she's got few problems on this track, although to be fair, she beat suspect competition in her CD stakes wins. Third off the layoff isn't one of my favorite angles, but in this case, it may actually fit. She's yet to go backward figure-wise, and although she hasn't faced a field this good, she's held her own at OP and in big fields in the past. The narrow pick.

12.) EIGHT BELLES (Larry Jones/Ramon Dominguez) 5-2
SCRATCHED FOR DERBY

SELECTIONS
#1 GOLDEN DOC A - Fits on TG figures, outworked the 'Bsharp' locally
#11 PURE CLAN - Versatile filly could be ready to make "the leap"
#8 PROUD SPELL - Tough not to like, but could be underlaid with EB scratch
#6 COUNTRY STAR - Scary on the switch to dirt, but will also be underlaid
LONGSHOT/SUPER ADD: #5 RASIERRA

WET TRACK QUICK HITS
MOVES UP ON WET TRACK: PROUD SPELL
MOVES DOWN ON WET TRACK: GOLDEN DOC A, COUNTRY STAR
WORTH A SECOND LOOK ON WET TRACK: ELUSIVE LADY, RASIERRA, A TO THE CROFT, AWESOME CHIC, LITTLE BELLE, ABSOLUTELY CINDY