Thursday, May 1, 2008

Quick thoughts

In four parts, to be followed by full previews tomorrow night and Friday. Next to every horse is the price I expect them to go off at, NOT the price from the morning line, which I think was messily done by Battaglia. Granted, I know nothing about figuring in takeout, so take what I say with a grain of salt, but I do have a history at guessing a horse's odds better than guessing how they're gonna run.

COOL COAL MAN (24-1)
This was my outsider horse a few weeks ago, and I'm not totally off the bandwagon. He's learned to relax and adapt to pace, and his Blue Grass is a total throwout. The rail draw isn't ideal, but he's done it before in a big field, so I don't think he'll be overwhelmed. He probably isn't quite fast enough to win, but I'll be using him in any trifecta wagers.

TALE OF EKATI (22-1)
Should carve out a decent trip from the inside, and he's certainly got the talent to matter, but I wonder about whether or not he wants to go this far. The Wood seems like the kind of race that would really tax a horse, and Zito said it knocked out War Pass (before he came up injured) a bit. Wouldn't toss him completely, but won't be using him on top.

ANAK NAKAL (76-1)
Actually think he ran a better race in the Wood than Court Vision did, and he'll be three times the price of that one, so that makes him intriguing, but his other two races this year were bad without excuses. Can't see myself including him.

COURT VISION (25-1)
I don't really care how well he's worked in blinkers, he had everything his own way in the Wood and still was an inconsequential third. He does have the pedigree for this and is lightly-raced, so he could run a new career best, but I can't see the blinkers being the cure for all that ails him. A minor piece is possible.

EIGHT BELLES (13-1)
Has the figures and the running style, and I don't buy that this is some huge step up in class. That being said, she's stretching out an extra 3/16 and her pedigree doesn't scream mile-and-a-quarter. Still, chucking her altogether is a bad idea, as she's probably one of the five best horses in the race based purely on talent.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Thought you might like this post: http://www.holytaco.com/2008/05/01/the-20-worst-kentucky-derby-hats/