Rest of Oaks Day

Continuing to keep an eye on the rain situation. Right now, it's 76° and partly cloudy at the Downs, but TWC is reporting the always helpful and informative 50% chance of precipitation during the day, with "scattered thunderstorms" expected. Most of the heavy rain is supposed to come and go tonight, but the way I'm interpreting it, don't rule out a few midday storms.

One thing's for sure, the radar doesn't look promising, but in my entirely amateur opinion, most of the severe rain seems like it could conceivably miss Louisville.

Handicapped races 6-10, and here's what I've come up with.

6TH (G2 LOUISVILLE STAKES) - #7 GINGER PUNCH looked like a pretty safe single until the scratch of #4 BAYOU'S LASSIE. Bobby Frankel's (as well as my) explanation of Ginger Punch's dull Apple Blossom third was that she runs much better with a target. Well, with Bayou's Lassie and #1 SILVER KNOCKERS out, Ginger Punch may find herself on the lead again if #2 LEAR'S PRINCESS or #6 LEAH'S SECRET don't gun. Going to be an interesting race to watch, considering I have no idea how it'll shape up. I kind of like Leah's Secret a little bit, as she's got excuses for most of her recent bad races, but I hate that Velazquez chose Silver Knockers over her before the scratch. Five-horse field now, I think I'll pass.

7TH (EDGEWOOD STAKES) - #6 GRACE AND POWER is simply the class of the field and will probably be the single in my pick four, but the likely pace scenario might work against her. With the scratch of #9 SUMMER COURTSHIP out of a field already devoid of much speed, Grace and Power, who may do her best work from off the pace, could be fighting an uphill battle. Still, I think she's the best of the bunch, and she's shown the ability in her last two races to close into pedestrian splits. Plus, Klesaris has put a bunch of bullets into her (not literally), so maybe they're trying to get her more involved early. The Bobby Flay owned filly was pointing for the G1 Ashland, but popped a splint. She appears to have recovered well from that, and with KEE done, rather than chance a bad run on dirt, Klesaris puts her back on a surface she likes. With that said, I'll be hedging slightly with #1 ZEE ZEE and #4 CLEARLY FOXY, who ran well on grass as two-year-olds and return to the turf following mediocre dirt form, and #8 MY BABY BABY, who ran a big race considering that she had a super wide trip.

8TH (G3 ALYSHEBA STAKES) - There's a little saying I have: "If you're thinking about singling Magna Grad, then the race is pretty bad." I'm so sick of giving #3 MAGNA GRADUATE chances, it's unbelievable. Yet, in this race, I can't talk myself off of him.. AGAIN. He was non-threatening in the Excelsior, but he took back behind a mediocre pace, endured a wide trip, and still was beaten only 2 1/2. His figures for the race (101 BSF, -3/4 TG) were respectable enough, and when he actually gets some pace to run at, he's decent. If #7 JONESBORO goes with #2 WANDERIN BOY and they draw #6 CHELOKEE close to a quick pace, the spoils should be Magna Graduate's. What to make of Wanderin Boy, anyway? He's seven now, and aside from a big second in the Whitney on a speed-favoring track, he didn't do much of anything last year. He did, however, win this race when somehow allowed loose in the slop, so if it's wet, he's a must include, but if it's dry, I'm against him at less than 4-1. Chelokee deserves inclusion considering the sharp, if unspectacular prep race, and the distinct possibility that he's matured into a legitimate handicap horse following a decent three-year-old season.

9TH (G3 CROWN ROYAL AMERICAN TURF STAKES) - Probably the toughest race of the sequence to figure out, but I'll narrow down the contenders based on how I think the race will play out. Once again, this appears to be a race without much early foot, which is why I think #8 PRUSSIAN, though underlaid, is a must include. He really had no excuse in the Transylvania, but polytrack. That's how bad the surface is. I only have to say one word, and you understand that the race is a possible throwout. He ran a few good ones on grass before flopping in the BC Juvy Turf. That was on yielding turf, so if it's wet today, maybe downgrade his chances. If that's the case though, upgrade #9 SAILOR'S CAP, who's my top choice anyway. In his two losses on grass, he was forced up on a quick pace, and he was handled much more smartly last out, when he won impressively on yielding KEE turf at 7-1. His figures for the race (92 BSF, 4 TG) make him very imposing, and Jimmy Toner, one of my favorite conditioners, likely wouldn't put him in this if he didn't belong. #3 CANNONBALL ran remarkably well in the BCJT considering that he was returning on five days rest, and he was on too fast of a pace two back. Ward says he's ready for the race of his life, and considering that he has competetive BSF's and got a strong 5 1/2 TG for his Hallandale Beach third behind Cowboy Cal, that best probably is good enough to win this. He, like Sailor's Cap, will be close to what should be a pedestrian pace, and he has handled wet grass before as well.

I'll post a pick four play once we know a little more about whether those storms hit the 'Ville.