Friday, May 2, 2008

Rounding out the field

DENIS OF CORK (21-1)
Scares the shit outta me. He's the kind of horse I want to take a stand against, considering that his only good race resulted from a DREAM TRIP in the Southwest. His connections couldn't have planned a better go of it that day. With that being said, he could indeed be quite the talented colt, and being so lightly-raced, who's to say that he's not developed to the point where he's capable of a big effort with tougher circumstances. His work was very good, and he's got the chance to drop back and make one run if he can avoid getting squeezed by the speed to his outside. Still, he's not the biggest colt, he's not bred great for 10 furlongs, and anyone knocking Big Brown for lack of experience should also be against this colt. I'll be using him defensively.

COWBOY CAL (32-1)
SPEED horse that doesn't have the SPEED to keep up with the other SPEED (I think it was called, "The Bus That Couldn't Slow Down"). He's bound to be an underlay because of Pletcher, and Giant's Causeways are all overrated, but some are less so on grass. This is one of them.

RECAPTURETHEGLORY (30-1)
Similar to Cowboy Cal, except this one's jockey probably won't settle for taking back once he realizes his mount can't go with the other speed. Way out of his element in here, but will take a decent amount of money because of his silly 102 BSF for the IL Derby.

GAYEGO (20-1)
Didn't love him before the draw, now I don't like him at all. His AR Derby was gutsy, but it was on what I think was a speed-favoring track. He supposedly didn't have a great week of training either, and he's bred to stop two furlongs ago. Passed on him last time and was wrong, but hopefully he doesn't fool me twice.

BIG BROWN (3-1)
Ah.. What to do with Mr. Brown? Pros: Fastest three-year-old in the country (seems significant), has the ability to run a fast pace and keep on going, doesn't face the danger of getting squeezed at the break, has Dutrow and Desormeaux (though consider the sources) calling him the greatest thing since sliced bread, has looked great all week at Churchill, pedigree is just fine thanks to Nureyev influence. Cons: Isn't nearly as professional as Curlin was last year, and he loads about 15 feet from the crowd, then they'll spring the latch right after he's in, will have to work awfully hard to get into a good position, and he may have too much speed for his own good, don't care which way Dutrow spins it, that lugging in and out in Hallandale was a bad sign, generally "greenly" in the comment line of final Derby prep isn't a positive thing. Definitely can win this, and I'll be including him, but I'd rather take either of the other two favorites at expected odds.

No comments: