Friday, May 2, 2008

More quick thoughts

Z FORTUNE (17-1)
If you toss his Rebel flop, he's got no bad races on the resume, and his Arky Derby was sensational, even if the figure is a little high. He got a -3/4 from the TG guys for the effort, and his two races in Louisiana were fine. Has the perfect midpack running style for this, and has reportedly had a good week of training. On my ticket.

BIG TRUCK (56-1)
Seems like a quality horse, but his only big race was a perfect trip win over the mediocre Atoned in the Tampa Bay Derby. Just can't see him factoring.

VISIONAIRE (38-1)
Definitely a horse I keep going back and forth on. On one hand, I think his Gotham figure was phony, and I think he's bred to stop after a mile. On the other hand, he's a consistent closer and his first few races were very impressive. I can't use him on top, but I'd be afraid to leave him out of the trifecta entirely.

PYRO (7-1)
Seems more and more like the best value of the big three, considering that I put little stock into the Blue Grass flop and that he's been training well since. His figures in Louisiana were slow, but the Risen Star run was class personified. The only thing that precludes me from making him my solid top pick is my worry that his kick could be dulled a bit going 10 furlongs. He's still a must use.

COLONEL JOHN (5-1)
If people bet solely on figures, he'd be around 20-1, and I'd love him. Unfortunately, those wily handicappers have discovered that synthetic numbers mean little, and this colt's steam is way high following his :57.61 blowout on Sunday. Can't fault anybody for trying to beat him, but I definitely will be including him, and think that he and Pyro are the two horses to beat, considering draw and shape of the race.

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