Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Contender Profile: Gayego

Future Odds: 57/1
Owner: Cubanacan Stables
Trainer: Paulo H. Lobo

Kudos to any who snagged this gorgeous son of Gilded Time at that number in the final future wager, as he'll likely be one-fourth that at post time Saturday. Yet to be out of the exacta in five starts, and scored a game victory in the AR Derby last out, earning big figures (103 BSF, -1/4 TG) across the board. Seems to have answered the call in what was his first start on dirt and only second around two turns, but something about that race was a little fishy. The top four all ran career bests figure-wise (Gayego 103, Z Fortune 102, Tres Borrachos 95, Indian Sun 92), so that alone gives cause for pause, but the track at Oaklawn appeared to favor speed more as the day wore on. It even LOOKED difficult for closers; if one checks the replay, huge chunks of dirt are flying back from the speed horses. Might not be all that much of a coincidence that Z Fortune and Indian Sun -- the only two horses that did any closing -- were wide and in the clear for significant parts of the race. Gayego did show the ability in his N1X second to come from off the pace, but he's got a high cruising speed and should be forwardly placed. That may not be as much of a problem now as it was before War Pass declared, but the pace still should be quick enough. Based on figures, however inflated they may be, he fits, so at 20/1 or so, he'd probably be worth an inclusion, but it's unlikely he gets that high. Bred to go short, by sprinting influence Gilded Time, out of a mare from another sprinting influence, Lost Code. He's talented enough to hold on for a piece, so if he floats up towards the aforementioned number, he's worth including in smaller tickets, but I'm against him otherwise.

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