Lexington preview

Last call! Here's who needs what for Derby..

First Place: Just about everybody other than Salute the Sarge. Atoned is the only one who MIGHT be straight with a second.

Wide open Lexy, folks, as a case can be made for nearly every horse in the race.

1.) ATONED (Pletcher/Prado) 3-1: Dogwood colt ran huge in first soph start after mediocre baby season, finishing narrow second in Tampa Derby despite being three- and five-wide on turns. Prado and Velazquez switch mounts, with Johnny climbing aboard Riley Tucker. Son of Repent has a bit of hang to him, but in fairness, he's had excuses for his last three runner-up finishes. Had no shot behind crawl at HAW, still earned figure of 93 for fourth. TG number (5 3/4) wasn't as impressive, but his TAM number (2 1/4) towers over what most in here can run. Tad concerned he ran too well in that one, and rail draw isn't often benefit at KEE, especially with three speeds to his outside. Nevertheless, he fits on figures, and any kind of rebound effort puts him squarely in contention for the win. Look elsewhere for value though.

2.) SALUTE THE SARGE (Guillot/Baze) 4-1: Forest Wildcat bay is already in based on earnings and trainer seems gunshy about Derby to say the least, but the Run for the Roses, she be a seductress. Done about nothing wrong in career save for no-chance BC Juvy try, and returned in style 3/29 with 1 3/4-length triumph in $78,000 San Miguel at SA. Earned decent enough figures (89 BSF, 5 1/2 TG) for that effort, but that was his first run since October and there are legitimate questions (by Guillot too) about his two-turn ability. Also seems the type to not want to be far back, and with two dead speed horses to his outside and a closer to his inside, Baze might have to go early. M/L price is underlay any way you look at it. Have to go elsewhere.

3.) SAMBA ROOSTER (Baffert/Gomez) 8-1: Lone runner not TC nominated has set some mighty quick fractions in his brief racing life, including a ridiculous :22 2/5, :44, 1:08 4/5 clip two back, when he understandably was a well-beaten third. Last out got a relative break (:23 4/5, :46 1/5, 1:10 2/5) on front end and turned it into big-figure (94 BSF, 3 TG) second in GP N1X. Problem is he was quite one-dimensional for Wolfson; that likely won't change with arrival in this barn, and there's one who's just as quick to his outside, not to mention a likely sprinter on the left as well. Never been two turns and save for sealed track romp 2/8, he's been backing up at the end of every race. Songandaprayer influence doesn't assuage distance concerns. Seems unlikely.

4.) ST. JOE (Miller/Mena) 8-1: Can't fault connections for trying here, as only two wins and best races of his career have come over this surface, including an MSW victory over Racecar Rhapsody last fall (though that one was severely compromised by the break). Comes into this off big-time wire job at 14-1 and perhaps the removal of blinkers has stopped him from being a quitter when he doesn't get his way. Setting those fractions (:22 2/5, :44 4/5) at KEE and winning sure isn't easy, so credit where credit is due, but he faces some other major speed to his inside and his lone two-turn try was uninspiring. Could run them off their feet, but unless Samba Rooster scratches, that probably won't happen.

5.) RACECAR RHAPSODY (McPeek/Albarado) 9-2: Second start off the layoff for this Tale of the Cat colt, and though his Lane's End fourth was a bit disappointing, he likely needed the start and ran on a dead rail for much of the race. Good news for McPeek as far as today goes is that blinkers didn't put too much speed into him, so he should be able to take back off a hot pace and make his one run. Take issue with that high Jackpot figure (93 BSF), as not many out of there have come back to duplicate it, and his TG figures are nothing spectacular (high of 5, only 6 1/2 last time). Still, this colt proved emphatically last fall that he can handle the tires, and he should be ready to improve off the break. M/L price a little too short to take, but he's an obvious contender.

6.) FELON (Maker/Leparoux) 20-1: First two efforts were dull, but Stephen Got Even bay exploded with a 6 1/2-length romp at TP last out, earning modest BSF of 80 but big TG of 2 1/2 for his four- and three-wide trip. The way he's bred, the extra sixteenth certainly won't bother him, and can't find anything wrong with :59 1/5 training facility breeze in company with Maker trainee Mr. Champ, who's an outsider in the G3 Bill Hartack at nine furlongs at HAW Saturday. Certainly gets the acid test, but wouldn't make him an automatic toss.

7.) BEHINDATTHEBAR (Pletcher/Flores) 12-1: Won off without much asking in SA N1X last out, though he got to drifting in, which he's done before. Took his lumps when fifth at 5/2 in El Camino Real, but may be better for it. Shipped across country since allowance win and has local half-mile in tow. Flores in town for the ride a good sign, and this colt appears to have the tactical speed to lay off a hot pace. Not quite sure what he beat last time out, but can say that for a few of these coming off big wins. Might be getting good at the right time.

8.) TOMCITO (Zanelli/Chavez) 6-1: Peruvian import was actually bred in Kentucky, and comes back home for final try at Derby earnings. Tough to get much of a read on Fla. Derby third. It was his first start in 4+ months and he earned good figures (85 BSF, 3 TG) for the effort, but the race set up perfectly for him and all he did was pass dead horses. Likely needed the race, but while those "G1" tags from his Peru races stick out, the actual level of competition he faced is highly questionable. Nonetheless, he figures to improve second off the break and he should get the perfect setup once again. Not in love with him at 6/1, but wouldn't totally leave off any serious ticket.

9.) BIG GLEN (Brothers/Douglas) 12-1: Cactus Ridge chestnut has had quite the eventful career, with slow starts and rough trips littered throughout his PP's. Three back though, he ran a big one to score in the $50,000 WEBN at TP, closing four-wide behind modest fractions to score by 1 1/4. May have regressed a bit and encountered trouble in the Battaglia Memorial, but bounced back with a workmanlike score in the Rushaway. Think he's better off dropping back and making one run, which he should get to do in this field. Could offer some value.

10.) RILEY TUCKER (Mott/Velazquez) 12-1: Yet another Zayat purchase, this Harlan's Holiday colt has failed to reproduce the form that earned him a narrow second to Wicked Style in the Arl-Wash Futurity last summer. Really don't like that he failed at 3/5 in FG N1X two back. Blinkers could wake him back up, but they'll also put him closer to the lead, which may not be the place to be in this field. Contender on his best, but leaning elsewhere today.

11.) RED SANDY (Lukas/Theriot) 30-1: Figure-light colt appears to be the lone outsider in competitive field, but Lukas gets the benefit of finding speedy field for this dead closer. Think he's too slow at this point to contend for the top spot, but wouldn't be totally floored if he cracked the super at a big number.

Must Use: #1 ATONED (3-1), #5 RACECAR RHAPSODY (9-2), #8 TOMCITO (6-1)
Value Inclusions: #6 FELON (20-1), BEHINDATTHEBAR (12-1), #9 BIG GLEN (12-1)
Not Using: #2 SALUTE THE SARGE (4-1), #3 SAMBA ROOSTER (8-1), #4 ST. JOE (8-1), #10 RILEY TUCKER (12-1)
Superfecta Booster: #11 RED SANDY (30-1)