Gayego, Pyro, and the infancy of what could become a Derby opinion

Heckuva job by Gayego to gamely hold off Z Fortune in the stretch, but the latter unquestionably ran the better race. Gayego rode the rail in behind a bogus speed on a track that played favorable to frontrunners, made a well-timed move and managed not to drift out too far into Z Fortune's path. Z Fortune was four wide on both turns, dropped back slightly on the backstretch and tired a bit in the last eighth.

The fact that Tres Borrachos ran third and no one besides Indian Sun did any real closing gives me cause to put a question mark near Gayego's race. To be fair, I didn't like the horse going into the race, and he's certainly a tough dude who could hold on for a piece in the Derby, but he wasn't the best horse on Saturday.

Gayego's effort reminded me quite a bit of Tale of Ekati's run in the Wood.. Just off a hot pace, hitting the front and holding gamely late. The lone difference was that Gayego only had to overtake Tres Borrachos, while T of E needed to get past the two-year-old champion for his win. Gayego seems like another horse with too much speed for his own good, and although I was wary of declaring this Derby field speed-chocked, it's beginning to look like the fractions will be at least faster than the ones Hard Spun set last year.

War Pass, Recapturetheglory and Bob Black Jack are guaranteed to be gunning.. Big Brown won't be too far off, and Gayego should be within a length or two of the front. All of them except for Recapturetheglory are capable of sub-:46 halfs, and all five could get wobbly late.

Right now, I'm looking for a horse that won't be too far off the lead, but distant enough to not get burnted out. Smooth Air (the forgotten horse), Cool Coal Man, Colonel John?

Pyro certainly became a less attractive contender to some today, but I couldn't be happier with his race. I think it was the anchor on the ESPN telecast (who, irritatingly, kept saying that Hey Byrn got the graded earnings he needed today, even after Moss diplomatically said otherwise) who said that there's a consensus among west coast trainers that it's easier to go from synthetic to dirt than the other way around. I buy that, which is why I'm chucking Pyro's race.

The question I pose is, what do you think Pyro will go off at on 5/3 now? Usually I consider myself pretty good at estimating a horse's post time odds, but I have little clue as to how the betting public will judge today's race. I could see him at anything from 5/1 to 8/1. My guess is 7 or 8/1.

Also, how much will Pyro's race today end up effecting Big Brown and Colonel John's post time odds? Big Brown, who I previously thought would be 7/2, will probably be 5/2 or 3/1 now, which is way too short. Colonel John, who previously was probably around 6/1, could be as low as 9/2 now.