Blue Grass preview

Firstly, let's look at this race from an earnings perspective, and assuming that all 12 entrants have Derby aspirations (not necessarily true, but for argument's sake), here's what each horse likely needs to get in the gate in Loovull:

First Place - Kentucky Bear (Baker), Stevil (Zito), Stone Bird (Lukas), Miner's Claim (Casse)
Second or Better - Cowboy Cal (Pletcher), Monba (Pletcher), Medjool (Hofmans)
Third or Fourth - Halo Najib (Romans)
Should Be Set, but a Placing Couldn't Hurt - Big Truck (Tagg), Visionaire (Matz)
In There Like Swimwear - Pyro (Asmussen), Cool Coal Man (Zito)

Now, with that in mind, let's have a glance at the Blue Grass, which I'm convinced would be a more formful surface than this Polytrack nonsense. (Note: Preview complete with Steve Byk trademarked nonspecifically suggestive double-dots!)

1.) COOL COAL MAN (Zito/Desormeaux) 4-1: Former speedball has learned to relax more and more, keeps drawing rail.. Wondering how much FOY took out of him, as he shows up 48 days later with just three works.. Doesn't need the earnings..

2.) KENTUCKY BEAR (Baker/Theriot) 50-1: M/L price seems like egregious overlay, considering this Mr. Greeley red was 4-1 in FOY. Didn't run a step that day, but got the experience and has a local work. Deserves another shot.

3.) COWBOY CAL (Pletcher/Velazquez) 15-1: Stonerside turfer picks weird time to jut onto Derby Trail.. Grass-to-synthetic won't be huge transition though and his figures are solid.. Good tactical foot and field isn't packed with speed..

4.) STEVIL (Zito/Bejarano) 30-1: Returned to top TG figure (5) in LA Derby. Usually slow morning horse perked up on Sunday with :59 and change breeze.. Wouldn't need to improve much to factor.

5.) MONBA (Pletcher/Prado) 15-1: Comes back to site of impressive maiden win. Ran solid fourth in Cash Call Futurity, but was a turkey in FOY. Even in chucking the race, his figures aren't that heft and he'll probably be underlaid.

6.) BIG TRUCK (Tagg/Coa) 6-1: NY-bred bay enjoyed perfect trip in TAM Derby, and another who won't be killing himself to take home top prize.. Looks to be moving right way though.

7.) PYRO (Asmussen/Bridgmohan) 1-1: Doesn't need anything out of the race other than a workout. Talent alone should get him a share, and wouldn't surprise as a winner, but he's the type of entrant you have to try and beat, right?

8.) STONE BIRD (Lukas/Lanerie) 50-1: DWL speed looks overmatched, even in this muddled field, but doesn't encounter many other frontrunners.. Stunk up the joint in lone KEE jaunt.

9.) MEDJOOL (Hofmans/Baze) 30-1: May have turned the corner, blowing away maidens at SA, then running deceptively large race in Lane's End. Was non-threatening third, but was six wide and five wide around turns, meriting TG fig of 2.. M/L overlay.

10.) MINER'S CLAIM (Casse/Husbands) 20-1: Lone hope for Canadian shipper is to go to lead and stay there.. Couldn't do that in Rushaway, even setting molasses fractions. Maybe he needed the race after 141 days off, but considering alternatives.. M/L underlay.

11.) HALO NAJIB (Romans/Gomez) 15-1: Zayat chestnut running in sixth graded stakes, but still needs earnings. Wide post doesn't help, but he showed ability to take back and close in Lane's End. Never was getting to Adriano though..

12.) VISIONAIRE (Matz/Lezcano) 6-1: Team Valor colt certainly has super closing kick, so if he gets pace to run at, look out. Interested to see how he responds after Gotham monsoon.. Texas Wildcatter came back terribly.. Lack of pace is a concern.

Selections that DON'T have Paul Anka's guarantee
3 - Cowboy Cal
2 - Kentucky Bear
7 - Pyro
9 - Medjool