Arkansas Derby preview

Same story.. Let's see who needs what. Except with the Arkansas Derby, second place pays enough ($200,000) to vault just about any of these horses into the Derby, so we'll widen the categories a bit.

First or Second Place Finish: Victory Pete (Barba), Tres Borrachos (Greely), Shekinah (Stewart), King's Silver Son (Asmussen), Gayego (Lobo), Isabull (Hobby), Liberty Bull (Amoss), Ablaze With Spirit (Asmussen), Jazz in the Park (Barnett)
Third Place Finish: Indian Sun (Hendricks), Golden Yank (Thomas), My Pal Charlie (Stall), Blackberry Road (Carroll), Z Fortune (Asmussen)
Slight Chance of Being Set With a Fourth: Z Fortune (Asmussen), My Pal Charlie (Stall), Blackberry Road (Carroll)
Already In: Nobody

With two more horses and no one set for the Derby without a placing, the Arkansas Derby should be way more of a thrilling clusterfuck than the Blue Grass. On with the cavalier and amateur analysis.

1.) VICTORY PETE (Barba/Potts) 12-1: Yeah, he got beaten by some good ones in the Sham, but he got away with murder on the front end and still offered little resistance. Same story in the Cal Derby.. Rail and Potts make his mission clear, but he'll be spitting the bit late.

2.) TRES BORRACHOS (Greely/Baze) 20-1: Went back to what he knows in El Camino Real and finished good third on the engine.. Figures are pretty darn weak though, with a high BSF of 83 and high TG of 6 1/2. Has legitimate distance questions too.. Pass.

12F.) SHEKINAH (Stewart/Emigh) 12-1: Coupled with Ablaze With Spirit and Jazz in the Park as part of "Field" betting interest. Been slowly improving for a while, and showed up big 3/16, taking N2L against 3+ in fast time.. TX-bred shouldn't be too far off with a repeat of last.

3.) KING'S SILVER SON (Asmussen/Quinonez) 6-1: Dead closer got just the trip he wanted in Rebel, earning figures (94 BSF, 4 1/2 TG) that may be a little inflated. Should get decent pace to run at again, but flattened out in only nine-furlong try.. Short price probably. No thanks.

4.) GAYEGO (Lobo/Smith) 5-2: Taking that kinda number on ANYBODY in this field is batshit crazy, especially this guy. Ran a 1:13 in winning San Pedro, but inclined to look at everything from late-January at SA with a skeptical eye.. First two-turn try was nothing special.. Maybe needed the race, but still, he's not bred to go far either. Looking elsewhere.

5.) ISABULL (Hobby/Doocy) 20-1: Not quite sure how King's Silver Son is 6-1 and this guy's 20-1.. Another one with questionable distance capabilities though, and while he was closer to the pace than King's Silver Son last out, he got the benefit of a rail trip. Not on top.

6.) MY PAL CHARLIE (Stall/Leparoux) 12-1: The fact that he was available for for a tag just 2 1/2 months ago raises flags, but some horses just need a little confidence.. Since then, he's been dynamite, and he's bred darn well.. Will face other speed though, so gonna make him prove himself again.

7.) BLACKBERRY ROAD (Carroll/Borel) 8-1: Though he earned just 87 BSF for La. Derby fourth, he was three wide around both turns and earned 3 1/2 TG.. Got no pace to run at in any of his FG races, but wasn't embarrassed in any of those races. Should get decent, if not blazing fractions to run into.. Time to see if he can be more than a parasite.

8.) LIBERTY BULL (Amoss/Razo) 6-1: Holy Bull gray has developed nicely through smart spacing, and Amoss is hot (10-of-12 in exacta at meet).. Already owns win over track, versatile sort, and always seems to fire. Chance for coming out party..

9.) GOLDEN YANK (Thomas/Sterling) 15-1: Probably needed the race when rather dull fourth in Rebel, but expecting improvement second back from break, and a return to one of his DED races would make him formidable.. Don't think he needs to come from the clouds either. 15-1? Mighty generous..

13F.) ABLAZE WITH SPIRIT (Asmussen/Berry) 12-1: Helligbrodt colt was no match for Liberty Bull at Sunland, but he's another who seems to be coming into his own and who always fires.. Local works can't hurt, and three for the price of one..

10.) Z FORTUNE (Asmussen/Albarado) 9-2: The horse to beat. Didn't give Pyro much of a run in La., but was compromised by being four wide on both turns.. Rebel stinker was too bad to believe, and he's worked well locally since. Not sure he wants to go this far and the post is miserable, but would rather bet him than Gayego..

11.) INDIAN SUN (Hendricks/Migliore) 12-1: Consistent colt has wrestled with the big boys many a time, but never seems to accomplish much when he does.. He was a suck-up second to El Gato Malo in San Rafael and a non-threatening fifth in the Cash Call Futurity. Should get splits to close at today, but he might just not be all that good.

14F.) JAZZ IN THE PARK (Barnett/Mena) 12-1: Comes here on top form, with two sharp closing victories at FG, but the waters get deeper here. Earned 4 1/2 TG for his last, which would make him a factor, and the post doesn't hurt him that much, but thinking he takes a step backward against this lot.

Selections
9 - Golden Yank
8 - Liberty Bull
12/Field - Shekinah, Ablaze With Spirit, Jazz in the Park
10 - Z Fortune

Alright buddies, I'm typed out for the night. I've sufficiently confused myself to the point where I had to flip back and forth through my mental dictionary to ferret out the word "sufficiently". Tomorrow should be lots of fun, with a much clearer Derby picture materializing at around 7 p.m. Eastern.