Contender Profile: Denis of Cork

As you can see, I've lost any semblance of order in doing these things. Just trying to get all of my thoughts out there before the draw.

Future Odds: 26/1
Owner: Mr. and Mrs. William K. Warren, Jr.
Trainer: David M. Carroll

Harlan's Holiday bay took three in a row before sputtering home fifth in the IL Derby, but to many (including your humble narrator), that race is pretty much a toss. He had to take back wide behind a soft pace on a track that favored speed and the rail, if not as starkly as many have reported. Main issue with this colt is that his big race, the G3 Southwest win (96 BSF, 1/4 TG) was aided by a DREAM setup. His internal fractions for the race behind dying speed were :24.11, :48.19, 1:12.30, 1:24.75, 1:37.89. It doesn't get much sweeter than that in a one-turn mile. By contrast, Sierra Sunset, whom Denis of Cork beat by 2 1/4, ran significantly quicker early splits of :23.37, :46.15 and 1:11.15. It's worth mentioning though, that the third-place horse, who had a similar trip to Denis of Cork, returned to score in the WinStar Derby. Worked beautifully the last two weeks, and he certainly has done nothing wrong, but it's just the uncertainty over how good the Southwest really was that's bugging me. He also is bred decently, but not exceedingly well, for a mile-and-a-quarter. My usage of him would probably depend on his odds. At 30/1 or better, he's definitely worth including, but in the 20/1-24/1 range, he begins to look like an underlay. With that said, he probably has one of the higher ceilings in this Derby field, so it wouldn't be a total shock to see him draped in roses. I'll be using him, but mostly on the bottom of my wagers.