Contender Profile: Big Brown

Derby Status: Going
Graded Earnings: $600,000
Future Odds: 3/1
Owner: IEAH Stables and Paul Pompa, Jr., et al
Trainer: Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.

May be special horse in a very weak crop, will likely go postward favored, with nothing but outstanding wins on resume. Was as impressive as a two-year-old can be in debut, setting solid pace and drawing away to win by 11 1/4 on grass (90 BSF), coming home in :28.49 for his final five-sixteenths of a mile and a sixteenth. The fact that connections started him going long says something about his perceived distance capabilities, but the fact that he began on turf says something about his feet, and therein lies his major drawback. The colt very possibly has the most talent of this class, but may also be the most fragile of the lot, with notoriously bad feet. Still, he's done nothing but be spectacular since his debut, winning off-the-turfer by 12 3/4 in hand at GP (104 BSF), then going to the front and winning G1 Florida Derby from impossible post in 1:48 (106 BSF) while running greenly through the stretch. Desormeaux says he might be the best horse he's ever ridden, which should be taken with a grain of salt, but is worth putting out there. Distance pedigree is deceptively strong, with Nureyev dam influence balancing out the limitations of Boundary up top. Comparisons to Curlin's distant third in Derby abound with only three starts under belt, but this one has way more early speed than Curlin, making it more likely that he'll be able to work out his own trip. Obvious concern that he hasn't danced all the dances, making him ill prepared for the cavalry charge of the Derby, but throwing out a horse this talented against a field this terrible would be insanity. Will be interesting to see if he encounters any hiccups heading into the race. Enough questions loom to make him an underlay at 3/1 (future price), but barring a miserable draw or training setback, he's a must include in all exotics.